就是一个参考点而已。。。更何况，跌的时候少拿点没关系，因为大涨的年份你还多拿了呢

Google AI 真的很好用

 

AI Overview

 

The 4% rule is a guideline for retirement withdrawal, suggesting you can withdraw 4% of your retirement portfolio in the first year and then adjust that amount for inflation each subsequent year, with a high probability of the money lasting 30 years. Developed from William Bengen's research, it uses historical data and a balanced portfolio to reduce the risk of outliving savings. However, the rule has limitations as it doesn't account for personal factors, taxes, fees, or different market conditions, so it's best used as a starting point for a personalized, flexible retirement strategy. 

 

How the 4% Rule Works

• Adjust for inflation: In the following years, increase your withdrawal by the previous year's inflation rate. 
   

1. Calculate your withdrawal amount: Determine your initial retirement expenses. 
    
2. Find your portfolio size: Divide your desired withdrawal amount by 4% (or 0.04) to estimate the total savings needed. For example, if you need $25,000 annually, you'd need $625,000 in savings ($25,000 / 0.04). 
    

Benefits

• Simplicity:

  It provides a straightforward, easy-to-calculate framework for retirement planning. 

   

• Historical Backing:

  The rule is based on historical market data, providing some reassurance for its potential effectiveness. 

   

Limitations and Risks

• Not Personalized:

  It doesn't consider your specific lifestyle, risk tolerance, or unique spending needs. 

   

• Taxes and Fees:

  It doesn't factor in the taxes and fees on withdrawals, which will reduce your actual spending money. 

   

• Market Conditions:

  The rule is based on historical data and assumes a certain portfolio allocation (like 50/50 stocks and bonds), which may not perfectly reflect future markets. 

   

• Lacks Flexibility:

  It doesn't account for years with higher or lower expenses, which is common in retirement. 

   

• Longevity and Sequence of Returns:

  Living longer than 30 years or experiencing poor market returns early in retirement can impact the rule's effectiveness. 

   

Modern Considerations

• Updated Analyses:

  Some analyses suggest that due to factors like higher interest rates, the 4% rate might be sustainable, while others emphasize the need for more conservative withdrawal rates or dynamic strategies. 

   

• Dynamic Adjustments:

  Many financial experts suggest creating a personalized, adaptable spending plan that goes beyond the simple 4% rule to account for your unique circumstances and allow for a fulfilling retirement.