AI迷局

LinkedIn上看到的：

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/linasbeliunas_nailed-it-ai-is-one-of-the-most-exciting-activity-7363880052951789569-kz6F?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAJPksgBJunLBOAjyHxWvFeemXYs4fNkGVU

 

Nailed it! AI is one of the most exciting things in tech right now, but it’s surely starting to feel more like a house of cards

Just think about it:

→ Users pay $200/year for an AI app like Cursor or Lovable.
→ Cursor pays $500 to OpenAI.
→ OpenAI pays $1,000 to AWS or Microsoft.
→ AWS then spends $10,000 on NVIDIA GPUs.

And the gap is covered by venture capital.

This scheme works only as long as VC money flows like free champagne

But what happens when the bar tab comes due?

Three possible futures:

? Price hikes - users pay $1,000+/year (will they?)
? Cost collapse - cheaper GPUs, efficient models, decentralized compute.
? Implosion - AI apps and LLMs vanish in a mass shakeout.

And the winners in every scenario will be the same:

NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Google.

And maybe China, if Huawei’s H20 chips or SMIC’s fabs tip the scales.

The ironic part?

AI’s biggest breakthrough might not be models at all. It’s economics.

Because right now, AI isn’t self-sustaining. It’s a subsidized illusion.

A house of cards waiting for the wrong gust of wind.