Am I nervous on US equity valuation?

来源: 2025-08-17 03:13:34 [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

With SPX 30% higher from April low it is natural to feel a bit nervous – I feel a bit nervous - as we head into a period of likely higher inflation and weaker growth. BUT:
The backdrop of Fed cuts is one of below trend growth, NOT recession;
The equity market is NOT the economy, it is further boosted by AI offsetting weaker macro: mag7 now expected to grow 25% earnings this year compared to 4% for the rest. 

With still not very crowded positioning the path of least resistance is probably higher still, especially heading into nvidia reporting.