Top economist 跟你的说法很不同，Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius说：

Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius on Tariff Pause:
"This leaves in place all prior taiffs and the 10% minimum portion of the reciprocal tariff, and we continue to expect addtional sector-specific tariffs.  Together, these tariffs are likely to sum to something close to our previous expectation of 15pp increase in the effective tariff rate.   As  a result, we are reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast with GDP growth of 0.5% and and 45% probability of recession."