川普贸易战1.0,并没有引发通胀

In 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on a range of imported goods, including steel (25%) and aluminum (10%), as well as tariffs on various Chinese products. These tariffs sparked debates about their economic impact, including whether they led to high inflation in the U.S.

The short answer is no, the U.S. did not experience high inflation as a direct result of the 2018 tariffs. Inflation remained relatively modest during this period. Let’s break it down:

1. Inflation Data for 2018: According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate in 2018 averaged about 2.4% for the year. This was slightly up from 2.1% in 2017 but still close to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, hardly qualifying as "high inflation." Core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy prices) was similarly tame, hovering around 2.1%.
2. Tariff Impact on Prices: The tariffs did increase the cost of specific goods—like steel and aluminum—which raised input costs for industries such as manufacturing and construction. Some companies passed these costs onto consumers, leading to price increases in certain sectors (e.g., cars, appliances). However, the overall effect on the broader economy was limited. Economists estimate that the tariffs added only about 0.1–0.2 percentage points to inflation, a small bump that didn’t spiral into widespread price surges.
3. Why Inflation Stayed Low: Several factors kept inflation in check:
   • The U.S. economy was strong in 2018, with GDP growth around 2.9% and unemployment dropping to 3.7% by year-end, but it wasn’t overheating.
   • Global competition and retailer efforts (e.g., Walmart, Amazon) to absorb costs prevented significant price hikes from reaching consumers.
   • The Federal Reserve raised interest rates four times in 2018 (to a range of 2.25–2.5%), signaling a proactive stance to curb any potential inflationary pressure.
4. Longer-Term Context: Inflation didn’t spike dramatically in the years immediately following either. It wasn’t until 2021–2022, during the post-pandemic recovery and supply chain disruptions, that inflation surged (peaking at 9.1% in June 2022). This was driven more by global factors, fiscal stimulus, and energy prices than the 2018 tariffs.

In summary, while the 2018 Trump tariffs caused some price increases in targeted sectors, they didn’t trigger highinflation across the U.S. economy. Inflation stayed moderate, and other economic dynamics played a bigger role in price stability at the time.