很多人把基本事实都搞错了。Fed从来没有暗示过第一季度，甚至上半年会降息。但是会有3次降息

“This view is consistent with the FOMC's economic projections in December, in which the median projection was three 25-basis-point cuts in 2024.”

“I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past”

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240116a.htm