美联储两三事

美联储两三事

于2005年,格林斯潘非常谦虚地承认,美联储对宏观方向的预测有限制。

Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Reflections on central banking,  Jackson Hole, Wyoming
August 26, 2005  https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050826/default.htm

尽管为捕获和量化我们认为的关键宏观经济关系做出了广泛努力，但我们对许多关键联系的了解还远未完成，而且很可能仍然如此。 每个模型，无论多么详细或构思、设计和实施得多么好，都是关于这个世界一个极其简化的模型。

Despite extensive efforts to capture and quantify what we perceive as the key macroeconomic relationships, our knowledge about many critical linkages is far from complete and, in all likelihood, will remain so. Every model, no matter how detailed or how well conceived, designed, and implemented, is a vastly simplified representation of the world

差不多11年后,他发表了同样的评论,美联储对经济预测的能力有限,美联储货币政策有局限性

Former, Current Fed Chairs Emphasize Limitations of Monetary Policy

Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen spoke at New York event

BY: Ali Meyer Follow @DJAliMeyer   April 12, 2016 5:55 pm

“真正的问题是货币政策在很大程度上是经济预测，而我们的预测能力非常有限，”格林斯潘说，

"The real problem is that monetary policy is very largely economic forecasting and our ability to forecast is significantly limited," said Greenspan,

伯南克说: “我还认为，我们已经了解到，将所有负担都推给央行和货币政策是错误的。”Bernanke said. "I also think that we have learned that it’s a mistake to put all of the burden on the central banks and monetary policy."

他表示："即使在央行被推到极限的情况下，具有更大财政成分的更加平衡的政策，或者更广泛的政策，无疑会发挥作用。” “我确实认为不幸的是，不仅是美国，全世界的央行都承担了如此大的负担，而且我们得到了错误的印象，认为只有央行才能应对经济低迷。”

"A more balanced policy with a greater fiscal component for example, or for a broader set of policies would no doubt work, even in a situation where central banks were pushed to the limit," he said. "I do think it’s unfortunate that not just the United States but around the world, central banks have carried so much of the burden and we’ve gotten the wrong impression that only central banks can respond to downturns."

2007年五月伯南克误判次贷潜在破坏性.次贷危机爆发后,美联储实施几轮QE,购买长期国债和MBS,人为压低长期国债利率

Bernanke: Subprime Mortgage Woes Won't Seriously Hurt Economy Published  17 May 2007

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday [May 17, 2007] that he didn't believe the growing number of mortgage defaults would seriously harm the economy

具有讽刺意味的是伯南克2009年12月19日被授予'Man of the Year' honor

Time Magazine has selected Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as "Man of the Year 2009" - I beg your pardon - "Person of the Year 2009." The recognition is very well deserved.

Bernanke deserves 'Man of the Year' honor December  19, 2009

ARTHUR I. CYR Scripps Howard News Service

Keep in mind that selection is based on having the greatest impact on the world over the year, not necessarily for the good 选择是基于一年中对世界产生最大影响, 不一定是好的。. For example, Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin were each selected in this ritual of recognition, which dates back to 1927. Bernanke so far has provided very strong and effective political as well as economic leadership in the face of an exceptionally severe recession. The rapid economic downturn was initially sparked by collapse in the subprime mortgage market.

The term "subprime" indicated the widespread irresponsible practice of making mortgage loans to people financially unqualified to have them by traditional banking standards. The housing market fire soon expanded into global conflagration with collapse of the enormous big casino game based on esoteric derivatives instruments.

美联储几次QE,压低长期债券市场利率.随着时间流逝,国债不断增长,使得下一次QE更加困难.美联储回旋空间正在缩小.  这是一个复杂的话题,也充满了变数,  变数其中之一是: 缩表的议程, 市场猜测,估计要等三月FOMC会议才会有具体计划。