改革并不是没有出路

来源: 2023-09-01 07:37:53 [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2022/05/02/how-fix-social-security-its-political-it-can-be-done?

Projections show that the trust fund will be empty by 2034. At that point, Social Security will have enough revenue to pay only 78% of benefits. And that is what we call the solvency crisis. It happened in 1977, and again in 1983, and each time legislators came together and fixed it. But Congress has been ignoring the problem since 1994, when the actuaries first identified it. The question remains: Will legislators ignore it for the next 12 years, or act sooner?

Q. What are some of the options for fixing the solvency problem?

Arnold: Since we have had two solvency crises in the past — 1977 and 1983 — let’s see how legislators fixed the problem then. The first time, they simply raised the payroll tax rate by 25% and the maximum taxable wage base by 68%. Six years later, they switched course. They effectively cut benefits by raising the full retirement age from 65 to 67, phasing it in over four decades. So, those are the two basic options: raise taxes or cut benefits.