现金流VS高增值

来源: 2018-11-09 04:52:42 [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

假设20年前都拥有4万元,三种投资方案。

A: 投资高增值但是是负现金流的房子。20年房子增值4倍,房价是原来的5倍,房子年增长率8.4%。租金年增长率6.0%。各种维护开销是房价3%。租金原来只有1000,现在3200。Plan A 利率6%.

数字是假设的,我做了excel表格。如果大家有兴趣我可以用你当地的数据。

 

B: 投资低增值但是是正现金流的房子。20年房子增值1.5倍,房子年增长率4.7%。租金年增长率4.7%。就是大家经常说的1%rule的房子。各种维护开销是房价4%, 比上面高1%。Plan B 利率6.5%,也比上面高。 

 

 

如果是你,你会选择A还是B呢?

 

PLAN A

 

Plan A            
           
20 Years Ago: Year 1998 Interest Rate 6.00% Now Year 2018            
House price   200000  Growth Rate 8.4% House price 1000000            
Rent   1000 Rent Growth Rate 6.0%  Rent 3200            
Yearly W2 cash for investment 0 W2 growth rate 4.0%                
Cash on hand   40000 Maintenance cost of house price 3.0%                
Year  # House Had House Price Down Payment Rent Mortgage/mo Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo Cash flow/mo Cash flow/ye W2 cash Total cash Buy House Next Year? Principe paid Net Worth
1 1 $200,000 40000 1000 ($959) ($500) ($459) ($5,511) 0 -5511 FALSE 2024 $36,512
2 1 $216,760 43352 1060 ($959) ($542) ($441) ($5,296) 0 -10807 FALSE 2145 $50,122
3 1 $234,924 46985 1123 ($959) ($587) ($423) ($5,079) 0 -15886 FALSE 2274 $65,481
4 1 $254,610 50922 1191 ($959) ($637) ($405) ($4,862) 0 -20748 FALSE 2410 $82,715
5 1 $275,946 55189 1262 ($959) ($690) ($387) ($4,647) 0 -25395 FALSE 2555 $101,960
6 1 $299,070 59814 1337 ($959) ($748) ($369) ($4,434) 0 -29829 FALSE 2708 $123,358
7 1 $324,131 64826 1418 ($959) ($810) ($352) ($4,224) 0 -34053 FALSE 2871 $147,066
8 1 $351,293 70259 1502 ($959) ($878) ($335) ($4,021) 0 -38074 FALSE 3043 $173,250
9 1 $380,731 76146 1592 ($959) ($952) ($319) ($3,824) 0 -41898 FALSE 3226 $202,089
10 1 $412,635 82527 1688 ($959) ($1,032) ($303) ($3,637) 0 -45535 FALSE 3419 $233,776
11 1 $447,214 89443 1789 ($959) ($1,118) ($288) ($3,462) 0 -48996 FALSE 3624 $268,517
12 1 $484,689 96938 1896 ($959) ($1,212) ($275) ($3,300) 0 -52297 FALSE 3842 $306,535
13 1 $525,306 105061 2010 ($959) ($1,313) ($263) ($3,156) 0 -55453 FALSE 4072 $348,067
14 1 $569,325 113865 2130 ($959) ($1,423) ($253) ($3,033) 0 -58486 FALSE 4317 $393,370
15 1 $617,034 123407 2257 ($959) ($1,543) ($244) ($2,934) 0 -61420 FALSE 4576 $442,720
16 1 $668,740 133748 2393 ($959) ($1,672) ($239) ($2,863) 0 -64283 FALSE 4850 $496,414
17 1 $724,780 144956 2536 ($959) ($1,812) ($235) ($2,825) 0 -67108 FALSE 5141 $554,770
18 1 $785,515 157103 2688 ($959) ($1,964) ($235) ($2,825) 0 -69932 FALSE 5450 $618,130
19 1 $851,340 170268 2849 ($959) ($2,128) ($239) ($2,868) 0 -72800 FALSE 5777 $686,864
20 1 $922,681 184536 3019 ($959) ($2,307) ($247) ($2,961) 0 -75762 FALSE 6123 $761,367
21 1 $1,000,000 200000 3200 ($959) ($2,500) ($259) ($3,111) 0 -78873 FALSE 6491 $842,065


PLAN B 20年后会是多少钱呢?

 

Plan B            
           
20 Years Ago: Year 1998 Interest Rate 6.50% Now Year 2018            
House price   60000  House Price Growth Rate 4.7% House price 150000            
Rent   600 Rent Growth Rate 4.7%  Rent 1500            
Yearly W2 cash for investment 0 W2 growth rate 4.0%                
Cash on hand   40000 Maintenance cost of house price 4.0%                
Year  # House Had House Price Down Payment Rent Mortgage/mo Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo Cash flow/mo Cash flow/ye W2 cash Total cash Buy House Next Year? Principe paid Net Worth
1 3 $60,000 12000 1800 ($910) ($600) $290 $3,478 0 7478 FALSE 1667 $45,145
2 3 $62,813 12563 1884 ($910) ($628) $346 $4,153 0 11631 FALSE 1776 $59,512
3 3 $65,757 13151 1973 ($910) ($658) $405 $4,860 0 16490 TRUE 1891 $75,097
4 4 $68,840 13768 2754 ($1,258) ($918) $577 $6,930 0 9652 FALSE 2685 $149,032
5 4 $72,067 14413 2883 ($1,258) ($961) $664 $7,962 0 17614 TRUE 2860 $172,763
6 5 $75,446 15089 3772 ($1,640) ($1,257) $875 $10,501 0 13026 FALSE 3807 $260,942
7 5 $78,983 15797 3949 ($1,640) ($1,316) $993 $11,916 0 24942 TRUE 4054 $294,597
8 6 $82,686 16537 4961 ($2,058) ($1,654) $1,250 $14,995 0 23400 TRUE 5181 $399,435
9 7 $86,562 17312 6059 ($2,496) ($2,020) $1,544 $18,528 0 24615 TRUE 6438 $516,908
10 8 $90,620 18124 7250 ($2,954) ($2,417) $1,879 $22,551 0 29042 TRUE 7836 $648,198
11 9 $94,868 18974 8538 ($3,434) ($2,846) $2,259 $27,103 0 37172 TRUE 9388 $794,570
12 10 $99,316 19863 9932 ($3,936) ($3,311) $2,685 $32,224 0 49533 TRUE 11110 $957,384
13 12 $103,972 20794 12477 ($4,987) ($4,159) $3,331 $39,967 0 68705 TRUE 14198 $1,245,257
14 15 $108,846 21769 16327 ($6,638) ($5,442) $4,246 $50,955 0 97891 TRUE 18901 $1,678,373
15 19 $113,949 22790 21650 ($8,943) ($7,217) $5,490 $65,885 0 140987 TRUE 25498 $2,279,302
16 24 $119,291 23858 28630 ($11,959) ($9,543) $7,127 $85,529 0 202658 TRUE 34301 $3,073,224
17 32 $124,883 24977 39963 ($17,011) ($13,321) $9,631 $115,570 0 293251 TRUE 48708 $4,345,805
18 43 $130,738 26148 56217 ($24,283) ($18,739) $13,195 $158,344 0 425448 TRUE 69705 $6,173,165
19 58 $136,867 27373 79383 ($34,664) ($26,461) $18,258 $219,095 0 617169 TRUE 100132 $8,781,564
20 79 $143,283 28657 113193 ($49,879) ($37,731) $25,584 $307,004 0 895516 TRUE 145252 $12,586,252
21 108 $150,000 30000 162000 ($71,875) ($54,000) $36,125 $433,504 0 1299020 TRUE 211480 $18,081,890

 


低增值的PLAN C,增值也就和通胀打平。20年后5million.

 

Plan C            
           
20 Years Ago: Year 1998 Interest Rate 6.50% Now Year 2018            
House price   80000  House Price Growth Rate 2.8% House price 140000            
Rent   800 Rent Growth Rate 2.8%  Rent 1400            
Yearly W2 cash for investment 0 W2 growth rate 4.0%                
Cash on hand   40000 Maintenance cost of house price 4.0%                
Year  # House Had House Price Down Payment Rent Mortgage/mo Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo Cash flow/mo Cash flow/ye W2 cash Total cash Buy House Next Year? Principe paid Net Worth
1 2 $80,000 16000 1600 ($809) ($533) $258 $3,091 0 11091 FALSE 1482 $44,573
2 2 $82,270 16454 1645 ($809) ($548) $288 $3,455 0 14546 FALSE 1578 $54,146
3 2 $84,605 16921 1692 ($809) ($564) $319 $3,828 0 18374 TRUE 1681 $64,324
4 3 $87,005 17401 2610 ($1,249) ($870) $491 $5,893 0 6867 FALSE 2685 $147,309
5 3 $89,474 17895 2684 ($1,249) ($895) $540 $6,486 0 13352 FALSE 2860 $164,061
6 3 $92,013 18403 2760 ($1,249) ($920) $591 $7,095 0 20448 TRUE 3046 $181,818
7 4 $94,624 18925 3785 ($1,727) ($1,262) $796 $9,550 0 11073 FALSE 4325 $279,225
8 4 $97,309 19462 3892 ($1,727) ($1,297) $867 $10,409 0 21482 TRUE 4606 $304,980
9 5 $100,070 20014 5004 ($2,233) ($1,668) $1,102 $13,226 0 14695 FALSE 6131 $415,439
10 5 $102,910 20582 5145 ($2,233) ($1,715) $1,197 $14,362 0 29057 TRUE 6530 $450,529
11 6 $105,830 21166 6350 ($2,769) ($2,117) $1,465 $17,575 0 25466 TRUE 8345 $575,715
12 7 $108,833 21767 7618 ($3,319) ($2,539) $1,760 $21,119 0 24819 TRUE 10369 $712,288
13 8 $111,921 22384 8954 ($3,885) ($2,985) $2,084 $25,011 0 27446 TRUE 12621 $861,074
14 9 $115,097 23019 10359 ($4,467) ($3,453) $2,439 $29,268 0 33694 TRUE 15121 $1,022,948
15 10 $118,363 23673 11836 ($5,065) ($3,945) $2,826 $33,906 0 43928 TRUE 17893 $1,198,831
16 11 $121,722 24344 13389 ($5,681) ($4,463) $3,245 $38,945 0 58528 TRUE 20962 $1,389,702
17 13 $125,176 25035 16273 ($6,947) ($5,424) $3,902 $46,822 0 80315 TRUE 26383 $1,726,217
18 16 $128,728 25746 20596 ($8,900) ($6,865) $4,831 $57,977 0 112546 TRUE 34582 $2,225,391
19 20 $132,381 26476 26476 ($11,577) ($8,825) $6,074 $72,884 0 158954 TRUE 46038 $2,905,803
20 25 $136,137 27227 34034 ($15,019) ($11,345) $7,671 $92,046 0 223773 TRUE 61288 $3,787,723
21 32 $140,000 28000 44800 ($19,974) ($14,933) $9,892 $118,707 0 314480 TRUE 83548 $5,038,553