I found this "fun" prediction

A while ago I made a fun prediction that Dow will drop
来源: miat42 于 08-08-19 13:30:34 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话]


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below 10000 and oil may top 170/barrel. I meant "fun" prediction is that I myself won't even take it seriously. But my gut feeling says that the market may drop much lower from here. Stock market is a forward (6-8 month) indictor of earnings. I am not among those who still believe that corporate America will have greater profit 6 - 8 months out than today's. That's the basis for my gut feeling. I am still mostly in cash as of today and no plan to get in anytime soon.

About oil, I also have a gut feeling that it may go back up. Somebody says that oil will now start a downward trek as global demand slows down, maybe. But I know that oil "demand" can be from paper demand too. That makes the outlook much more complicated.