大猪头, I based my investment decision on insider

transactions and other pro value investor's involvement. If u read this post of mine, it records the development of my investment thesis and practice:

http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=tzlc&MsgID=109732

So, insider transactions tell me to buy, but what is the fair value or when it is a good time to sell, book value is one of the data points for deciding my target. Also, the price insiders pay for their shares is of equal importance.

I am not an expert at all on off balance sheets, but I figure that if there is risk on off balance sheets, it should have been dug out by short sellers long ago. ABK and MBI have been under spot light for a long time. Also I think insiders know more about off balance entities.

I also believe that wall street is very sensitive to off balance entities after being burnt last time by Enron, I would not worry too much about it this time. I prefer to worry about new tricks that get invented new. But I am not a financial analyst to know what is old and what is new trick. Again, you do not need to have a PHD to invest in stocks, common sense will prevail. Besides, those value funds should have done their homework for you, they should have a team of PHD on accounting tricks to scrutiny everything on their financial report. Go to third avenue's website and read Whitman's quarterly letter to their share holders, it will calm your nerves.