Ronald Surz: The United States Is Even More Broke Than We Think

The United States Is Even More Broke Than We Think

Jun. 24, 2018 8:12 AM ET 

 

Ronald Surz

 

Registered investment advisor, pension fund manager, portfolio strategy

Age Sage Robo Analyst for Adults

(793 followers)

Summary

The 2018 "official" U.S. debt figure of $34 trillion is 120% of GDP and projected to double as a percent of GDP within the next 20 years. It's big.

If we add "off-the-books" net obligations like Social Security and Medicare, our all-in debt, or so-called "fiscal gap", rises to $110 trillion, or 390% of GDP. It's scary.

Raising taxes and reducing benefits won't restore solvency. Something is going to break, and it won't be pretty.

We're broke and no one seems to care. We're all aware that this country owes a lot of money, but no one cares because we're leading pretty good lives here. We have yet to feel the consequences of being broke, but that won't last long. Some things are already breaking, and an ultimate breakdown is on the way. 2018 is the first year when tax receipts won't pay for Social Security and Medicare benefits. We are spending down the corpus, and will have spent all of the Social Security Trust by 2034, while Medicare monies will only last until 2026. This might sound like we have time, but we don't, especially since nothing is being done to head off these catastrophes. It's full speed ahead into the reckoning. Furthermore, some large pension funds are broke, and are likely to renege on their promised benefits. In the following, we share some details on this bankruptcy, and offer some actions that might help, although they are unlikely.

The National Debt

As shown in the following graph, the reported national debt of $34 trillion is currently 120% of GDP, a level only seen before in the wake of World War II. But unlike the last time, there are no signs that debt has peaked. We use a percentage of GDP to convey our ability to pay. If every dollar of output our country generates this year were used to pay our debt, it would not be enough. Of course we're not obligated to pay right away and therein lies our ho-hum attitude; we trust some miracle will solve the problem someday.

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