美国总统选举将于今年11月举行,届时会由前总统川普代表共和党,与寻求连任﹑民主党籍的拜登竞逐总统之位。经济学人智库(EIU)发表报告,指出川普重返白宫﹑扰乱全球贸易及安全联盟机会非常高,亦会带来非常大影响。
《路透》引述EIU报告指出,川普重返白宫机会非常高,届时美国在外交﹑贸易﹑能源﹑移民﹑气候变化及对外援助的政策将会发生剧变。例如川普可能会兑现对所有美国进口货商品全面徵收10%关税。就算有个别产品可获减免,仅作出威胁就会加剧紧张局势及贸易成本。报告同时预期川普会宣布针对内地实施新的贸易及投资限制,将会加剧对全球贸易体系的干扰,并推高美国工业及消费品成本。
外交及安全政策方面,预料日后川普政府会向国会施压,要求减少或撤回对乌克兰的财政及军事支持,迫使乌克兰于不利条件下与俄罗斯达成停火协议。虽然不预期会退出北约,但预料日后美国与其他成员国的关係更加紧张。
料两岸今明两年不会直接发生冲突
报告内亦有提及其他威胁全球商业的地缘政治及经济风险因素。报告认为在2024至2025年,内地与台湾不会直接发生冲突,却会不时加剧局势紧张,又认为赖清德在下月就职台湾总统后,会触发两岸紧张情势。
EIU另外提及3个风险因素,包括各国对绿色科技的补贴竞赛将演变成全球贸易战、因气候转变引发的极端天气事件干扰全球供应链、以色列哈马斯战争升级至区域冲突的可能性温和,但一旦发生影响大。
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