但，从概率模型上看，由于“winner takes all”，大州的选民其实比小州选民的影响大很多。

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)

Favors less populous states

As a consequence of giving more per capita voting power to the less populated states, the Electoral College gives extra power to voters in those states. Some critics of the Electoral College assert that the system favors the Republican Party^{[citation needed]} by disproportionately boosting the electoral weight of the less populous states, but Democrats in fact won the majority of the 13 smallest states in five of the six presidential elections between 1992 and 2008.

In one countervailing analysis about smaller states gaining an Electoral College advantage, the Banzhaf power index (BPI) model based on probability theory was used to test the hypothesis that citizens of small states accrue more election power. It was found that in 1990, individual voters in California, the largest state, had 3.3 times more individual power to choose a President than voters of Montana, the largest of the minimum 3 elector states.^[85] Banzhaf's method has been criticized for treating votes like coin-flips, and more empirically-based models of voting yield results which seem to favor larger states less.^[86]