120年前的“一带一路”、“止戈为武”是如何演变成一场世界大战的？
整整一个世纪前，欧洲大陆刚刚结束了第一次世界大战的血雨腥风。战争前，经过“铁血宰相”俾斯麦数十年卓有成效的经营，德意志帝国外接连赢得战争胜利，在内完成了政治统一和经济 发展，在确立了欧陆霸主的地位，世界瞩目，群雄侧足，似乎再没有人能阻挡后起的德意志帝国的崛起之势。但是，威廉二世继位，俾斯麦下台，皇帝亲政，随后德国陷入长达四年的惨烈“一战”并最终战败，遭受了自“三十年战争“以来最为沉重的打击，从上升的高峰直坠谷底。德国这一段盛衰经历在 近代史上具有标本性的典型意义，值得同处于崛起期的中国借鉴深思。
首先让我们简要了解一下德意志德国的崛起之路。作为一个晚来的国家，德国于十九世纪末到二十世纪初迅速兴起，在各领域都取得了骄人成绩。
政治上，1871年俾斯麦推动完成德意志统一运动，在外打败丹麦、奥地利、法国，坐上欧洲大陆军事首强的宝座;经济上，与英法的工业化相比，德国呈现出“迟、快、彻底”特点，以铁路建设为推力，带动重工业发展，尤其是煤炭、钢铁工业，并在第二次工业革命中诞生的新兴产业——化学和电气工业取得领跑优势。德国二十世纪初就迅速实现了经济上的“赶英超法”，虽总量尚不及美国，但质量更优。
军事上，德国通过19世纪初普鲁士军事家沙恩霍斯特的军事改革，创立了军队大脑“总参谋部”体制和“全民皆兵”的战争动员体系，实现了高效指挥和全民武装，建立了一只以普鲁士正规军为核心，预备役、民兵梯次配置的强大的人民军队。其统一战争的主要对手——法军，虽然规模至四十万之巨，并拥有克里米亚和墨西哥战争的实战经验，依然不敌德军败下阵来。
外交上，俾斯麦像写作一篇严谨的学术论文一般布置德国的外交格局，执行韬光养晦不当头的策略。1871年后，俾斯麦建立起以德国为中心的大陆体系，建立德奥俄同盟，孤立世仇法国，将其排除于欧洲事务之外。另外，教育和科技和方面，洪堡兄弟开始教育改革，现代大学制度逐步形成，职业教育体系也日趋完善，德国科学家成为第二次工业革命科技飞跃的无可争辩的主角。同时，俾斯麦还首倡社会保险制度，作为消解社会矛盾、增强社会稳定的手段，成效显著并沿用至今。
然而，改革进行了20年后，随着1888年威廉二世的亲政，震撼世界的德意志奇迹戛然而止。
威廉二世掌权后，渴望将德国从欧陆强国提升为世界霸权，丢弃了俾斯麦时代制定的韬光养晦、决不当头的外交策略，轻躁冒进，禁止任何妄议言论，最终自酿苦酒。体现在如下几个方面：
首先，德国在殖民地扩张和海军发展问题上，与英国发生不可调和的冲突，最终把英国逼至对立面。英帝国是当时的世界第一霸权国本来，对英关系是威廉二世外交路线的重点，他希望绑定英国，让英德经济紧密融合，以抵消对俄关系恶化的影响，促使欧陆权力中心重回德国。他本人就是维多利亚女王的外孙，少年时在英国度过，有着天然的大好条件。
但是，由于当时工业发展，急需对外输出产品，对内输入原料，德国对殖民地的需求日益增长。另外，当时西方掀起瓜分世界的帝国主义狂潮，德国也不甘落后。但当时世界的殖民地霸权掌握在英国手上，世界大宗商品的结算权也在英帝国手上，英镑作为世界硬通货成为英帝国收割全球羊毛的工具。德国对殖民地的追求不得不挑战英镑的国际货币结算地位。触及英镑结算，自然也就触及了英国的核心利益。使得后果更为严重的是，威廉二世争夺殖民地总是玩弄手段，咄咄逼人。比如太平洋上的萨摩亚群岛，原为德美英三国共有，威廉二世却试图赶跑美英，一家独占；在南非，英国希望获得两个布尔人(荷兰移民后裔)国家，对此觊觎已久的德国却横加栏阻。这些矛盾给英德关系笼罩上浓重的阴云。
长于英国、对英国坚船利炮极为艳羡的威廉二世也意识到海军的重要性。当时德国先后通过了两个海军法案。第一个法案目标是保证北海和波罗的海主导权，第二个则旨在建立远洋海军，争夺全球海洋主导权。德国提出：地球上的海洋很大，足够英德两国平分的。德国试图凭借之前积累的经济实力和工业基础，全速发展海军，各种主力战舰下饺子，以达到“止戈为武”的目的。德国人表面上声称国家间要有事好商量，不能动辄就诉诸武力或以武力相威胁，各国应坚持平等协商，完善危机沟通机制，加强区域安全合作，推动涉海分歧妥善解决，而实际上就是要让战争的代价太沉重从而让英国无法承受，以此胁迫英国对自己的扩张听之任之，不得动作。这更加触动了传统海上霸主——英国最敏感的神经，使其深感自己的核心优势受到德国的直接威胁。因为英帝国的逻辑是除非德国承认英帝国的霸权，否则就是在挑起战争。无奈下，英国试图与德国协商，甚至暗示德国，只要德国愿意限制海军实力，英国就会与法俄保持距离，但是威廉二世的要价过高，追求的是把北海变成德国的内湖，这让英国人实在无法接受。1912年，英国还曾往柏林派出谈判团，但德国的强硬态度毫不退让，坚持要发展海军，坚持要挑战英国在北海乃至整个大西洋的海洋霸权，错过了与英国和解的最后机会，德英海军竞赛加剧。
对德国而言，与英国的敌对是致命性的。战争开始后，德国人很快就尝到了与英为敌的苦头，英吉利的强大海军成为封锁了德国出海口的利器，产品卖不出，粮食、原材料、能源运不进，让德国人叫苦不迭。而且英国的参战也成为意大利和美国等国最终纷纷对德宣战的重要诱因，特别是美国的参战压碎了德国的最后一丝希望。
其次，改变对俄亲善的策略，导致德俄交恶。俄国是紧邻德国东部疆界的大国，与俄关系是决定德国战略环境好坏的关键因素。历史上已有明验，19世纪初拿破仑战争中，普鲁士已败至几近亡国，甚至连国家象征——柏林勃兰登堡门上的胜利女神像都被法国人拆下来运回巴黎，最终是靠着俄国的有效抵抗，拿破仑兵锋重挫于莫斯科，普鲁士才赢得喘息之机，艰难复国。1871年，德国统一的重要外部条件也是俄国的不干涉。为此在俾斯麦制定的大陆体系中，对俄友善是德国的基本方针，以实现“东和西战”的目的，即保持德国东部后院的稳定，专意对付西方的主要对手法国。这一策略的成果体现在德俄1887年签订的为期三年的《再保险条约》，按照该条约，俄国需在法国入侵德国时保持中立地位。为此，俾斯麦不惜在其他方面毫不吝啬地给与俄罗斯大把好处。但同时，老谋深算的俾斯麦也深谙“一手给出，一手拿回”的外交手段，暗地里巧妙地利用其他国家来制约俄国势力的扩张，坐享亲善睦邻之名，而无损己奉彼之实。
威廉二世亲政后，抛弃俾斯麦的大陆体系，疏远俄国。他在奥地利与俄国在保加利亚和巴尔干半岛等地的冲突中，选择支持奥地利。1890年，俄国基于自身利益考虑，希望将《再保险条约》续约六年，但威廉德国予以拒绝。种种行为，逼得俄国不得不转而寻求与法国结盟。
德国雄心勃勃修建德国版“一带”，即“3B铁路”，即柏林——拜占庭（伊斯坦布尔）——巴格达铁路，侵入英俄在近东和中东的传统势力范围，成为促成英法俄三国结盟的直接导火索。最后英法于1904年、英俄于1907年签订协约，协约国体系成型。至此，一战开战前，德国已陷入东有俄国，西有法国，海上通道又面临英国威胁的战略绝境，实已回天乏术，未战先败。
最后，在一战的导火索——“萨拉热窝事件”的应对上，德国决策层也出现了严重的战略误判。
1914年6月28日，塞尔维亚人暗杀了奥匈帝国皇储。奥匈要寻求复仇，塞尔维亚固不足论，但它的保护国却是奥匈自己惹不起的俄国。于是，奥匈寻求德国的支持。在俄国是否会出兵援塞这一关键问题上，以威廉二世为首的德国决策层轻率地做出了否定性的结论，理由是奥匈对塞尔维亚可以速胜，塞尔维亚面对攻击只能坚持两周，不会给俄国留下插手的时间。而且，同为君主制国家，估计俄沙皇也不会反对惩办谋害皇族的行为。此外，此时奥匈几乎已是德国在欧陆唯一可以依靠的盟友，必须予以支持。更重要的是，德国决策层认为战争将是局部性的。最终德国给奥匈开出了支持战争的空白支票，任其填写。
但是，随后的事件进程和协约国的反应远远超出德国的预料。首先奥匈行事迟缓，错过了国际舆论声讨塞尔维亚的有利时期，对塞尔维亚发出的照会又言语极其不逊，有理也变成了无理。俄国随后明确声明不允许奥匈进入塞尔维亚，法国也宣布会按依协议出兵。英国提出在伦敦召开国际会议协商危机的建议又被拒绝，最终不得不表示，如果德国出兵支持奥匈，那么英国也将参战。大战一触即发，德奥同盟明显处于劣势地位，德国此时才着急去做各方工作，但又明显“拉偏架”，不去阻止手按宣战按钮的奥匈，反而劝说俄国不干预。最终斡旋失败，一场旷日持久、死亡人数超过1600万人的欧洲内战由此爆发。
不堪战争苦难的德国人民在战争末期爆发起义，威廉二世仓皇出逃，曾经光芒耀眼的“第二帝国”走入历史坟墓。战后，德国被迫签订《凡尔赛合约》，不但所有殖民地被剥夺，战前集全国之力发展的海军也几近全灭。仇恨的火星深深地隐藏起来，直到约二十年后钠粹德国兴起，才从地下喷涌而出，将更加惨烈的战火烧遍全世界。
回顾完这段历史，以中国面临的外交形势为出发点，我们从一战前德国外交战略的失误中可以汲取的经验主要有如下几方面：
首先，国家必须始终清醒地把握国际格局并在此基础上制定正确的外交战略，尽量让自己处于有利一方。就一战前的欧陆而言，德法俄英奥是五大强国。其中，德法对立是无可改变的事实，德奥是盟友，英国和俄国则是足以用来平衡甚至左右欧陆格局的两枚重要砝码，也是德国外交行动的主要着力点。以威廉二世为首的德国决策层却在对英、俄关系上都犯下严重失误，在对英关系进展尚不明朗的时候，就贸然放弃对俄关系，随后又与英交恶，拱手将这两枚砝码送给法国。 国亡思良相，威廉二世晚年在回忆录中又想起了俾斯麦的外交艺术。他说德法俄英奥五国间的合纵连横，在俾斯麦运作下，就像抛球杂耍一般。而俾斯麦，好似一位伟大的杂技家，他不但总能让三个球组成一方居于上风，更重要的是，他能让德国始终位于这多数的三个球当中。
相似的，就目前的欧亚大陆而言，中日美欧俄是五大强国，中日对立是无可改变的事实，中俄是盟友，美国和欧盟则是足以用来平衡甚至左右欧陆格局的两枚重要砝码，也是中国外交行动的主要着力点。中国对欧洲，万万不可以在对美关系进展尚不明朗的时候，就贸然放弃对欧关系，随后又与美交恶，拱手将这两枚砝码送给日本。
其次，还需要以恰当的态度对待自己的盟友。在萨拉热窝事件中，德国对己方阵营中的奥匈不但未施以必要的约束，反而许下空头支票，助长了他的错误行径，结果自己也被拖下混水，绑上战车。在对俄关系中，中国也要把握对俄的距离，不要在乌克兰、叙利亚和克里米亚问题上被俄罗斯拖下水。
再次，新兴强国面对既有国际格局和传统强国，不应直接对抗，而应顺势而行，见机而动，得好就收。国家的发展繁荣是自身建设出来的，而不是在外斗争或者斗嘴出来的。一战前的德国急切地挑战传统强国而将大好形势亲手断送的教训，值得始终牢记。新兴强国崛起的道路上，最大的危险始终在于自身，自己不犯错最重要。一时崛起靠的是有所作为，长期兴盛却更需要有所不为。目前，中国各种直接挑战美元作为国际结算货币地位的行为，譬如人民币国际化和阻止美国收割羊毛的行为，与威廉德国急切试图夺取殖民地的行为没有区别。而对试图离间欧盟各国和通过工业2025计划夺取欧盟尖端制造业地位的举措又与当年威廉德国放弃对俄关系的行为别无二致。而大肆兴建现代化海军、空军和高超音速水漂弹的行为也与当年德国贸然发动与英国的造舰竞赛的行为异曲同工。在这些事情上，中国必须控制自己，停止这些不切实际的冒险。中国应该做的是加快改革，实行金融自由化，放弃国家资本主义，放弃工业计划2025和保护知识产权。
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How did the "Belt and Road" and "stop the martial arts" of 120 years ago evolve into a world war?
A century ago, the European continent had just ended the bloody hurricane of the First World War. Before the war, after several years of fruitful operation by the "iron and blood prime minister" Bismarck, the German empire won the war victory, completed the political unification and economic development, established the status of the European hegemon, the world's attention, the heroes, it seems No one can stop the rise of the German Empire. However, William II succeeded to the throne, Bismarck stepped down, the emperor pro-governance, and then Germany fell into a fierce "first-war" for four years and eventually defeated, suffering the most severe blow since the "Thirty Years War", from the rising peak Straight to the bottom. This period of ups and downs in Germany has the typical meaning of specimens in modern history, and it is worthwhile to learn from China in the rising period.
Let us first briefly understand the rise of Germany and Germany. As a late country, Germany quickly emerged from the end of the 19th century to the beginning of the 20th century, and achieved remarkable results in various fields.
Politically, in 1871 Bismarck promoted the completion of the German unification movement, defeated Denmark, Austria, and France, and took the throne of the top military in Europe. Economically, compared with the industrialization of Britain and France, Germany showed "late, fast, thorough". The characteristics of the railway construction as the thrust, driving the development of heavy industry, especially the coal, steel industry, and the emerging industry in the second industrial revolution - the chemical and electrical industry to take the lead. At the beginning of the 20th century, Germany quickly realized the economic "catch-up of the British super-law". Although the total amount is still not as good as that of the United States, the quality is better.
Militaryly, through the military reform of the Prussian military strategist Shaen Horst in the early 19th century, Germany created the "general staff" system of the military brain and the "mobility system" of all the people, achieving efficient command and armed forces, and established A powerful people's army with the Prussian regular army as its core, the reserve and the militia. The main opponent of the united war, the French army, although it was as large as 400,000, and had practical experience in the wars in Crimea and Mexico, still lost to the Germans.
Diplomacy, Bismarck is like writing a rigorous academic paper to generally arrange the German diplomatic landscape, and implement the strategy of keeping a low profile. After 1871, Bismarck established a continental system centered on Germany, established the German-Olympian alliance, and isolated the feud of France, and excluded it from European affairs. In addition, in education and science and technology, the Humboldt brothers began education reform, the modern university system gradually formed, and the vocational education system became more and more perfect. German scientists became the indisputable protagonist of the second industrial revolution. At the same time, Bismarck also advocated the social insurance system as a means of dissolving social contradictions and enhancing social stability. The results have been remarkable and have been used to this day.
However, 20 years after the reform, with the pro-government of William II in 1888, the German miracle that shocked the world came to an abrupt end.
After Wilhelm II took power, he was eager to promote Germany from the European powers to world hegemony, discarding the diplomatic strategy set by the Bismarck era, and ignoring the arrogance, prohibiting any deliberation, and eventually brewing bitter wine. It is reflected in the following aspects:
First of all, Germany’s irreconcilable conflict with the United Kingdom on colonial expansion and naval development eventually pushed Britain to the opposite. The British Empire was the world’s first hegemonic country at the time. The relationship with Britain was the focus of William II’s diplomatic line. He hoped to bind Britain and allow the British and German economies to integrate closely to offset the deterioration of relations with Russia and promote the European Power Center. Return to Germany. He himself is the grandson of Queen Victoria, who spent his time in the UK as a teenager, with natural and good conditions.
However, due to the industrial development at that time, there was an urgent need to export products to the outside world, and the demand for colonies in Germany was increasing. In addition, at that time, the West set off an imperialist frenzy that divided the world, and Germany was not far behind. But at that time, the colonial hegemony of the world was in the hands of the British. The right to settle the world's commodities was also in the hands of the British Empire. The British pound became the world's hard currency and became the tool for the British Empire to harvest the world's wool. Germany’s pursuit of the colony had to challenge the international currency settlement status of the pound. Touching the settlement of the pound, it naturally touches the core interests of the UK. What makes the consequences even worse is that William II’s struggle for the colonies is always a playful and aggressive approach. For example, the Samoa Islands in the Pacific Ocean were originally owned by Germany, the United States and Britain. William II tried to run away from the United States and Britain, and the other was monopolized. In South Africa, the United Kingdom hopes to acquire two Boer (Dutch immigrants) countries. Germany has added a barrier. These contradictions have clouded a thick cloud of English-German relations.
William II, who grew up in Britain and was very envious of the British ship, also realized the importance of the navy. At that time, Germany passed two naval bills. The first bill aims to guarantee the dominance of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, and the second aims to establish a distant ocean naval to compete for global ocean dominance. The logic of Germany is that the ocean on earth is large enough to be equally divided between Britain and Germany. Germany has tried to develop the navy at full speed with the accumulated economic strength and industrial base, and to make dumplings under various main battleships in order to achieve the goal of "going to the martial arts." On the surface, the Germans claim that there must be good discussions between the countries. If they do not resort to force or threaten by force, countries should adhere to equal consultations, improve the crisis communication mechanism, strengthen regional security cooperation, and promote the settlement of sea-related differences. It is to ask the United Kingdom to let it go to its own expansion and not to use force. This has touched the traditional maritime hegemony, Britain's most sensitive nerve, making it deeply felt that its core advantages are directly threatened by Germany. Because the logic of the British Empire is that unless Germany recognizes the hegemony of the British Empire, it is provoking war. In desperation, the British tried to negotiate with Germany, and even hinted that Germany, as long as Germany is willing to limit the naval strength, the United Kingdom will keep a distance from France and Russia, but William II's asking price is too high, the pursuit is to turn the North Sea into Germany's inner lake, This makes the British really unacceptable. In 1912, the United Kingdom also sent a negotiating group to Berlin, but Germany’s tough attitude did not retreat. It insisted on developing the navy, insisting on challenging the British maritime hegemony in the North Sea and the entire Atlantic Ocean, and missing the last chance to reconcile with the United Kingdom. The naval competition has intensified.
For Germany, hostility to the UK is fatal. After the war began, the Germans soon tasted the bitterness of being against the British. The powerful navy of English became a weapon to block the German estuary. The products could not be sold, and the food, raw materials and energy could not be transported, and the Germans could not help. . Moreover, the British participation in the war has become an important incentive for Italy and the United States to finally declare war on Germany. In particular, the United States’ participation in the war has crushed Germany’s last hope.
Second, changing the strategy of goodwill toward Russia led to the evil between Russia and Russia. Russia is a big country close to the eastern border of Germany. The relationship with Russia is a key factor in determining the strategic environment of Germany. It has been proven in history that in the early Napoleonic wars of the early 19th century, Prussia was defeated to a near-dead country. Even the national symbol, the statue of Victory on the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, was taken down by the French and transported back to Paris. With the effective resistance of Russia, Napoleon’s squadron fell to Moscow, and Prussia won the respite and struggled to regain the country. In 1871, the important external conditions of German reunification were also Russian non-interference. For this reason, in the mainland system formulated by Bismarck, the friendliness of Russia is the basic principle of Germany, in order to achieve the purpose of "East and West War", that is, to maintain the stability of the backyard of Germany, and to deal with the main opponent of the West, France. The result of this strategy is reflected in the three-year "Reinsurance Treaty" signed by Germany and Russia in 1887. According to the treaty, Russia needs to maintain its neutral status when France invades Germany. To this end, Bismarck does not hesitate to give Russia a lot of benefits in other aspects. At the same time, the savvy Bismarck is also deeply acquainted with the diplomatic means of "giving one hand and getting it back". He secretly uses other countries to restrict the expansion of Russian power and enjoy the name of good neighborliness without compromising his own truth.
After William II became a pro-government, he abandoned Bismarck’s mainland system and alienated Russia. He chose to support Austria in the conflict between Austria and Russia in Bulgaria and the Balkans. In 1890, based on its own interests, Russia hoped to renew the Reinsurance Treaty for six years, but William Germany refused. All kinds of actions forced Russia to turn to seek an alliance with France.
Germany's ambitious construction of the German version of the "Belt", namely the "3B Railway", that is, Berlin - Byzantium (Istanbul) - Baghdad Railway, invading the traditional sphere of influence between Britain and Russia in the Near East and the Middle East, and becoming the direct guide to the alliance of Britain, France and Russia Fire rope. Finally, in 1904, Britain and Russia signed a treaty in 1907, and the Allies system was formed. At this point, before the start of the First World War, Germany had fallen into the east with Russia, the west with France, and the sea channel faced the strategic threat of the British threat, and it has already returned to the sky without a battle.
Finally, in the response to the fuse of the First World War, the "Sarajevo Incident", the German policy makers also had serious strategic misjudgments.
On June 28, 1914, the Serbs assassinated the Emperor of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Austria and Hungary want to seek revenge, Serbia is not solid, but its protectorate is Russia that Austria and Hungary can not afford. Therefore, Austro-Hungarian sought German support. On the key issue of whether Russia will send troops to aid, the German decision-making head headed by William II made a rash conclusion. The reason is that Austria and Hungary can win fast against Serbia. Serbia can only insist on two attacks. Zhou will not leave time for Russia to intervene. Moreover, as a monarchy, it is estimated that the Russian tsar will not oppose the punishment of murdering the royal family. In addition, at this time, Austria and Hungary are almost the only allies that Germany can rely on in Europe and must be supported. More importantly, German policymakers believe that war will be partial. In the end, Germany gave Austria and Hungary a blank check to support the war and let it fill it out.
However, the subsequent event process and the reaction of the Allies have far exceeded Germany's expectations. First of all, the Austro-Hungarian operation was slow, and it missed the favorable period in which international public opinion denounced Serbia. The note sent to Serbia was extremely inferior and rational, and it became unreasonable. Russia then made a clear statement that Austrian-Hungarians were not allowed to enter Serbia, and France also announced that it would send troops according to the agreement. The British proposal to hold an international conference to negotiate a crisis in London was rejected. Eventually, it was necessary to say that if Germany sent troops to support Austria and Hungary, then Britain would also participate in the war. The war was on the verge of exploding, and the German-Australian alliance was clearly in a disadvantaged position. At this time, Germany was anxious to do the work of all parties, but it was obviously "striking", not to stop the Austrian-Hungarians pressing the button of declaration of war, but to persuade Russia not to intervene. Eventually the mediation failed, and a protracted European civil war with more than 16 million deaths broke out.
The German people who suffered from the war suffered an uprising at the end of the war. William II fled and the once radiant "Second Empire" entered the historical tomb. After the war, Germany was forced to sign the "Versailles Contract". Not only did all the colonies be deprived, but the navy that developed the power of the whole country before the war was almost completely destroyed. The hateful Mars was deeply hidden, until about half a year later, when Nazi Germany emerged, it sprang from the ground and burned even more fierce battles around the world.
After reviewing this history and taking the diplomatic situation facing China as the starting point, the lessons we can learn from the mistakes of the German diplomatic strategy before the First World War mainly include the following aspects:
First of all, the state must always clearly grasp the international situation and formulate a correct diplomatic strategy on this basis, and try to make itself in a favorable side. As far as the European Union before World War I, Germany, France and Russia were the five powers. Among them, the German-French opposition is an unchangeable fact. Germany and Austria are allies. The United Kingdom and Russia are two important weights that can be used to balance and even influence the European landscape. It is also the main focus of German diplomatic action. The German decision-making head, led by William II, made serious mistakes in the relations between Britain and Russia. When the progress of relations with Britain was still unclear, he rashly abandoned his relations with Russia, and then he succumbed to the British. Two weights were given to France. In the memoirs of William II, William II remembered the diplomatic art of Bismarck in his later years. He said that the combination of the five countries of Germany, France, Russia and the United Kingdom, under the operation of Bismarck, is like throwing a ball. Bismarck, like a great acrobat, not only allows the three players to have the upper hand, but more importantly, he can keep Germany in the majority of the three balls.
Similarly, as far as the current Eurasia is concerned, China, Japan, the United States, Europe and Russia are the five powers. The Sino-Japanese confrontation is unchangeable. China and Russia are allies, and the United States and the European Union are enough to balance or even influence the European landscape. Two important weights are also the main focus of China's diplomatic actions. China and Europe can't rush to give up their relations with Europe when the progress of relations with the United States is still unclear. Then they will succumb to the United States and hand over the two weights to Japan.
Second, you need to treat your allies with the right attitude. In the Sarajevo incident, Germany did not impose the necessary restrictions on Austrian-Hungarian in its own camp. Instead, it made a short check and contributed to his wrong behavior. As a result, he was dragged down and tied to the chariot. In relations with Russia, China must also grasp the distance to Russia and not be dragged down by Russia on the Ukrainian, Syrian, and Crimean issues.
Once again, emerging powers should face the existing international pattern and traditional powers. They should not directly confront each other. Instead, they should follow the trend and see the opportunities. The development and prosperity of the country is built by itself, not by external struggles or by bickering. The lessons that Germany before the First World War eagerly challenged the traditional powers and ruined the situation well, it is worth keeping in mind. On the road to the rise of emerging powers, the biggest danger is always in itself, and it is most important that you do not make mistakes. The rise of the moment depends on making a difference. In the long run, it needs more. At present, China's various direct challenges to the US dollar as an international settlement currency, such as the internationalization of the renminbi and the prevention of wool harvesting in the United States, are no different from William's eager attempt to seize the colony. The move to try to separate the EU countries and seize the EU's cutting-edge manufacturing status through the Industrial 2025 plan is no different from that of William Germany's abandonment of relations with Russia. The behavior of Daxu to build a modern navy, air force and hypersonic water drifting bombs is also the same as that of Germany’s rashly launching a competition with the British shipbuilding competition. In these matters, China must control itself and stop these unrealistic risks. What China should do is to speed up reforms, implement financial liberalization, abandon state capitalism, abandon industrial plans 2025 and protect intellectual property rights.
