郭文贵提供的DNA报告掩盖了名字和测试系列号,我略去了次要信息,并将表格稍做了编排。表中最后一列是我给的配对结果,缘于DNA分子的双链结构特性----分别传自父与母; 在任意一个测试位点有一个数据符合,那么配对就是 match,我标记为 y, 两个数据都符合我标记为 yy,两个数据都不符合,就是 not match, 记为 N。
总共测试了27个位点(外加一个性别测试位点),有7个 N: not match, 14个 y: 单配, 6个 yy: 双配。原始报告上的解释是:两人同父同母的可能性是1.1%,不同父的可能性是93比1,计算结果是基于“两人是同母”的预先假定。
我有一个疑问,如果不预先假设他们同母,计算结果又如何?根据这些测试数据,同母的可能性多大?不同母的可能性由多大? 也许这里有专业人士能给出分析结果。
至于文字我就不翻译了,详细情形请参看:文学城新闻首页--2017-07-26郭文贵的爆料。
“贯君 和 刘某某”的 DNA 测试表
Name | Asian 1 | Asian 2 | Match ? | |||
Locus | PI | Allele sizes | Allele sizes | |||
D3S1358 | 0.81 | 16 | 15 | 16 | y | |
vWA | 0.77 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 18 | y |
D16S539 | 0.75 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 10 | y |
TPOX | 0.76 | 8 | 8 | 11 | y | |
D18S51 | 0.50 | 15 | 21 | 14 | 16 | N |
D2S441 | 2.23 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | yy |
D19S433 | 0.84 | 15.2 | 16 | 14.2 | 15.2 | y |
TH01 | 0.79 | 7 | 9 | 9 | y | |
FGA | 0.50 | 22 | 23 | 24 | N | |
D22S1045 | 0.70 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 17 | y |
D5S818 | 0.79 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | y |
D13S317 | 0.76 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 11 | y |
D7S820 | 0.77 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 12 | y |
SE33 | 0.50 | 25.2 | 26.2 | 22.2 | 30.2 | N |
D10S1248 | 0.50 | 14 | 13 | 15 | N | |
D2S1338 | 0.50 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 23 | N |
D8S115 | 2.88 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 19 | yy |
D9S1122 | 1.74 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | yy |
D17S1301 | 1.70 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | yy |
D9S2157 | 0.83 | 13 | 15 | 13 | y | |
D3S4529 | 2.16 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | yy |
D14S1434 | 0.70 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 14 | y |
LPL | 0.50 | 10 | 11 | 12 | N | |
F138 | 1.26 | 10 | 10 | yy | ||
F13A01 | 0.77 | 3.2 | 6 | 6 | y | |
Penta C | 0.79 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 12 | y |
Penta E | 0.50 | 18 | 20 | 11 | 12 | N |
Amelogenin | X | Y | X | Y |
Interpretation:
Combined Siblingship Index: 0.0108
DNA testing was done to determine sibilingship of the alleged siblings. Based on testing results obtained from analyses of the DNA loci listed, the probability of full-sibilingship is 1.1%. The likelihood that they do not share the same biological father is 93 to 1. This probability of sibilingship is calculated by comparing to an untested, unrelated, random individual of the Asian population(assumes prior probability equals 0.50). These results are based on the assumption that the alleged siblings share a common mother.
... Laboratory Director (Joy Johnson, Ph.D) verifies that the interpretation of the results is correct as reported on 7/17/2017.