再论中国GDP

来源: 2019-09-19 17:46:11 [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

On China GDP, again

My view on China GDP is that it has been much undercountered for a long time. This is based on the products or goods produced or made in China as well as China annual electricity production (AEP). A reserve estimated China 2018 GDP per capita was ~US$30000. That was about half of the US counterpart. Intriguingly, China AEP per capita last year was 5300 kwh, also little short of the half of the US figure (11000 kwh).  

China population is ~1.4 billion, and thus China 2018 GDP was about US$42 trillion much higher than the officially announced figure $14 trillion (nominal rate) and also higher the World Bank's estimation $23 trillion (ppp).

What is the implication of this?

China may not be a developing country.

再论中国GDP

我对中国国内生产总值的看法是,它长期以来一直处于不利地位。这是基于在中国生产或制造的产品或产品以及中国的年度电力生产(AEP)。估计中国2018年人均国内生产总值约为3万美元。这大约是美国同行的一半。有趣的是,去年中国人均AEP为5300千瓦时,也略低于美国数字的一半(11000千瓦时)。

中国人口约为14亿,因此中国2018年的国内生产总值约为42万亿美元,远高于官方宣布的14万亿美元(名义利率),也高于世界银行估计的23万亿美元(ppp)。

这意味着什么?

中国已成为一个发达国家?