《生活在美国的危险与安全》（Safety and Danger in Life in the USA）

生活在美国的危险与安全 

Safety and Danger in Life in the USA

 

美国是个万花筒，每天都有新鲜事、振奋的、伤感的，激动的，不安的，新奇的，喜感的，不一而足。而且观察者们又常戴着不同颜色的眼镜，解读起来就各更是莫衷一是了。哪怕是同一件事情，看法也会大相径庭。其是非曲直，在网上，甚至在老中的家庭聚会中，都会吵得不可开交。

Living in the United States is like looking through a kaleidoscope, with each day seeing something new – exhilarating, poignant, exciting, unsettling, curious, humorous, and more. Observers, wearing glasses tinted with different colors, interpret events in diverse ways. Even for the same incident, opinions can vary widely. Truth and falsehood debates, whether online or at Chinese family gatherings, can become heated.

能不能不吵架、相对客观地看事情呢？立场已定，比较难。我下面设法找一个相对单一事情，即生活在美国的安全问题来讨论一下。这个事情，生活在这里的人，甚至不生活在这里的人都比较关心的。为了具有客观性，我寻求公开披露的量化的统计数字。而这些量化的指标中，最清晰的是死亡。生与死是1与0的截然区别。

Is it possible to discuss things without arguing, looking at them relatively objectively? Given pre-established positions, it's challenging. Here, I'll attempt to focus on a relatively singular aspect: the safety issue of living in the United States. This matter is of concern to both those living here and those outside. To maintain objectivity, I seek quantifiable statistical data publicly disclosed. Among these metrics, the statistics of death is especially the clearest – a stark distinction between 1 and 0.

我们这里不谈疾病和衰老导致的死亡，这不是安全问题。我们也不多谈自杀，因为自杀固然不好，很多还是使用枪械，但不直接导致别人的不安全。下面这个图，首先告诉我们从幼儿1岁到中年后期54岁，美国人群在各个年龄段排前4位的死亡原因。细看一下就可以看出，跟我上面定义的“安全”相关的有两条，一是“非故意伤害”（Unintentional injury），二是“他杀”（即杀人，Homicide）。这个概念比“谋杀”（Murder）要稍宽一点。方便起见，本文中不将两者作严格区分。

We won't discuss deaths from diseases or aging, as they don't represent safety issues. Suicide won't be extensively covered either, as it, while tragic, doesn't directly threaten others' safety. The chart below first highlights the top four causes of death in various age groups, from toddlers (1 year old) to midlife (54 years old). Notably, two related to my definition of "safety" are "Unintentional injury" and "Homicide." The meanings of "Homicide" and "Murder" are not the same, but the distinction between them is not strictly made in the article just for convenience.

上图的下部列举了“非故意伤害”的主要构成，其中“中毒”（Poisoning）和交通事故两者远多于其他（图中的数字包括未死亡的，所以很高）。中毒导致的死亡主要是吸毒过量（overdose）致死，近年以芬太尼过服致死为主。目前，过服致死每年已达十几万人。交通事故致死每年约3.5万人。谋杀每年约2.5 万人。这三条 ，即吸毒致死、交通事故和谋杀是美国与“安全”有关的死亡的主要构成。本文中我们逐一分析。

The lower part of the chart lists the main components of "Unintentional injury," with "Poisoning" and "Traffic accidents" far exceeding others. Deaths from poisoning are mainly due to drug overdoses, with fentanyl overdoses being predominant in recent years, causing tens of thousands of deaths annually. Traffic accidents result in approximately 35,000 deaths each year. Homicides amount to around 25,000 annually. These three – drug overdoses, traffic accidents, and homicides – constitute the main elements of death related to "safety" in the United States, which we will analyze one by one.

下面这个两个图反映的是美国在近20年吸毒死亡的情况。作为总体，美国每10万人中每年有近40人死于过服。芬太尼过服致死近10年呈火箭式上升，已经成为national security的重大威胁，我上个月有博文专门谈这个问题。但是，我相信老中的中产们自尊自爱，成为瘾君子者应该极少，为此而送命者可以忽略不计。所以吸毒致死是尽管是美国的安全问题，但应该不是老中的主要安全问题。

Let's start with drug overdoses. The graph below illustrates the situation in the United States over the past 20 years. On average, nearly 40 people per 100,000 die from overdoses each year. Fentanyl overdoses have skyrocketed in the last decade, posing a significant national security threat. However, it's assumed that the risk for middle-class Chinese individuals in U.S. is minimal. Thus, while drug overdoses contribute to the overall safety issue in the U.S., they may not be the primary safety concern for the Chinese community.

我们再来看看交通事故。下面这个图比较busy。如果想直奔主题，就看中间那个浅蓝色的线。如今，美国每年交通事故死亡约3.5万人，也就是大约每年每10万人中死亡约10个人。美国的人口在增加，里程里程也在增加，但死亡人数却在下降，这应该主要归功于车辆安全性的提高。在40年里，同样的里程，死亡概率减少了三分之二。这反映在最下面那条红线的下降趋势。

Now, let's look at traffic accidents. The following graph is quite busy, but you may focus on the light blue line in the middle. Currently, there are approximately 35,000 traffic accident-related deaths in the U.S. each year, about 10 deaths per 100,000 people annually. Despite population and mileage increases, the number of deaths has decreased, mainly due to improved vehicle safety. Over 40 years, the probability of death per mile traveled has decreased by two-thirds, as reflected in the declining trend of the red line at the bottom.

很多时候，交通事故不是通过努力能够避免的，它的发生有一个概率。我们老中大多要上班，要commute，但我认为大多数老中是谨慎的驾驶者，大多没有酒驾的恶习，所以在交通事故这个指标上，我认为老中的至少不高于美国的平均水平。

Often, traffic accidents are unpredictable, but their occurrence has a probability. Most Chinese Americans commute, but they are generally cautious drivers, and they are also less likely to engage in drunk driving. Therefore, regarding the indicator of traffic accidents, the Chinese community's risk is assumed to be at least not higher than the U.S. average.

好，现在来看看最引人瞩目的暴力犯罪、谋杀和枪击问题。在很多时候，这方面，特别是枪击，即便死的人不多，也对人产生巨大的心理冲击。例如，美国的交通事故每天死100人，天天如此，习以为常了。但如果出现一个枪击案，哪怕死10个人，也是令人惊怵的。

Alright, let's now take a look at the most prominent issues of violent crime, murder, and gun violence. In many instances, especially concerning gun violence, even if the number of casualties is not high, it has a profound psychological impact on people. For example, in the United States, 100 people die in traffic accidents every day, and it has become a routine occurrence. However, if there is a shooting incident, even with 10 fatalities, it is still shocking.

在下面的几个选图中，暴力犯罪，谋杀和枪杀不是同一个概念，但三者高度相关。暴力犯罪包括杀人，抢劫、强奸、绑架等。大致而言，在美国大约60-80次暴力犯罪导致一次死亡案例。美国的杀人案例中，约80%是枪杀。

The following charts depict violent crime, murder, and shooting incidents.  These three indexes have different definitions, but they are highly correlated. About 60-80 violent crimes lead to one death in the U.S. , and murder cases in the U.S. are approximately 80% gun-related.

上面是两个不同渠道（高度一致）显示的美国最近30年暴力犯罪率（每10万人）。这张图显示的信息可能出乎很多人的意料：它显示美国的暴力犯罪率在过去的30年中明显降低，几乎下降了一半。不得不说，如今的社交媒体具有相当大的“坏事传千里”的功效，时常放大负面消息，让人出现跟现实不一致的心理感受、以及非理性的焦虑不安。其实上，最近几十年来，美国明显地越来越安全了。

The above is the violent crime rate in the United States over the past 30 years (per 100,000 people), displayed through two different channels (highly consistent). The information shown in this graph may be surprising to many: it indicates a significant decrease in the United States' violent crime rate over the past 30 years, almost halving. It must be noted that today's social media has a considerable effect of "bad news travels far," often amplifying negative news and creating a psychological perception that is inconsistent with reality, leading to irrational anxiety and unease. In fact, in recent decades, the United States has become noticeably safer.

枪支谋杀的数据（见下）稍有不同，虽然在2020年前的30年里，美国枪支犯罪的减少与暴力犯罪减少是同步的，但2020年出现了突然的、超出常理的跃升。我个人有一些分析，但突然想到去问问ChatGPT这是为什么，它给了我6条可能的原因。前两条是Pandemic-Related Stress和Civil Unrest（比如白人警察“跪杀”黑人导致骚乱）。人工智能让人佩服！有幸的是，去年开始枪击谋杀有所下降。希望今年和未来的年份继续这个趋势。

The data on firearm homicides (see below) is slightly different. Although during the 30 years before 2020, the reduction in firearm crimes and violent crimes in the United States was roughly synchronized, there was a sudden, unprecedented surge in 2020. I have some personal views, but I suddenly thought of asking ChatGPT why this is, and it gave me six possible reasons. The first two are Pandemic-Related Stress and Civil Unrest (such as the riots caused by a white police officer who "kneed” a black individual to death). Artificial intelligence is truly admirable! Fortunately, there has been a decrease in firearm homicides since last year. I hope this trend continues in the coming years.

我们再来看看城市犯罪。与30年前相比，纽约市犯罪率的下降十分显著，近年的谋杀率仅仅是1990年代初的六分之一左右。目前纽约市是美国最安全的大城市之一，暴力犯罪率和谋杀率跟美国的平均水平大致持平。然而，并不是所有的城市都是如此。洛杉矶要差一些，芝加哥就比较严重了。当然还有更差的，如底特律、圣路易斯、巴尔的摩等。

Let's examine city crime rates. In comparison to 30 years ago, New York City has seen a significant decrease in crime rates, with recent murder rates being only about one-sixth of those in the early 1990s. Currently, New York City is one of the safest major cities in the U.S., with violence and murder rates roughly on par with the national average. However, this is not the case for all cities. Los Angeles has its challenges, and Chicago faces more serious issues. Some cities, like Detroit, St. Louis, and Baltimore, fare even worse.

下面这两张图，一张将谋杀率按照族裔进行了区分，然后跟世界各国进行对比，另一张显示美国各个县的谋杀率。作为总体，美国的谋杀率与世界的平均水平差不多，比南美那些混乱的国家好很多，但却是欧盟国家的6倍，这显然跟美国人普遍拥枪有很大关系。枪权是美国的宪法赋予的，改宪法的门槛极高。枪权的是非得失这里不去讨论。然而，看第二张图，它显示了美国不同地区安全性的不均衡。美国是一个很大的国家，没有户籍制度，人民自由迁徙。老中是从个人安全和子女教育角度考虑，一定是择邻而居的。而且绝大多数老中也没有泡酒吧、逛夜店的瘾。所以我充分相信，老中所在社区的犯罪率、谋杀率不会高于欧洲发达国家的水平。对老中来讲，遭遇枪击的危险比车祸的危险要小很多很多。

The two graphs above break down murder rates by ethnicity, comparing them globally, and show homicide rate in all U.S. counties. Overall, the U.S. murder rate is similar to the world average, much better than the chaotic countries in South America but six times higher than EU countries, a consequence largely tied to widespread gun ownership.
The right to bear arms is a constitutional right granted to citizens in the United States, and amending the Constitution to change this right is extremely difficult. The merits and drawbacks of the right to bear arms are not discussed here. The second graph indicates an imbalance in safety across different regions. Given the lack of a registry system and the freedom to move, the Chinese community, being generally cautious and not indulging in nightlife, is likely to experience lower crime and murder rates, should have a rate on par with the average of developed European countries or even lower.

现在让我们来设想一个scenario，假如你到一个完全代表今日美国平均水平的、一万人口的小城去生活一年，那么你会看到，这一年里面将有105人去世。在这105个死者中，有4人是药物过服去世（主要是吸毒所致），1人交通事故去世，0.7人被谋杀，1人自杀，0.5人死于其他事故（如溺水、火灾等），其他近98人都是因生病或衰老去世的。可以想见，这个统计数字如果换成中产华人，药物过量致死趋近为零，谋杀身亡至少减少80%（因neighborhood不同）。这时候，威胁老中人身安全的，主要就是交通事故了。

Now, imagine living in a small town representing the average U.S. conditions, with a population of 10,000, for a year. During that year, approximately 105 people will pass away. Of these, four will die from drug overdoses (mostly due to drug abuse), one in a traffic accident, 0.7 from murder, 0.8 from suicide, 0.5 from the combined total of other accidents (such as drowning, fires, etc.). The remaining ~98 people die from illness or aging. For the Chinese middle class, drug overdose deaths would approach zero, and murder deaths would likely decrease by at least 80% (due to good neighborhood). Therefore, beyond this scenario and in reality, the primary threat to the safety of Chinese residents in U.S. would be traffic accidents.

 

 

其实，世界上的不少人对美国趋之若鹜，从某种意义上讲，恰恰在于美国宏观上的“安全”。从它国来到美国的民众，有的是为民主而来，有人是为自由而来，但大部分的人，我想还是为了更好的生活和更好的未来。美国这个国家，恰恰能够为没有任何背景的普通人，以及他们的子孙后代提供发展机会和梦想的实现。这是最大的、最重要的“安全”。

Indeed, many people around the world are attracted to the United States because of its macro-level "safety." Some people come for democracy, some for freedom, but mostly for a better life and a brighter future. The U.S., offering opportunities for ordinary people without any background, along with their descendants, to develop and realize dreams, provides the fundamental guarantee of "safety."

上面这张图显示的是美国最近36年的人均GDP，其中数字已经根据通货膨胀，折合成了现在的美元。我们可以看到，美国的GDP在人均20,000美元后继续直线上升，36年又翻了近两番。美国这样大的经济规模，在已经成为高度发达国家（里根时代）之后，依然能如此发展，令人赞叹。

The graph above shows the GDP per capita of the United States over the past 36 years, adjusted for inflation. The continuous upward trajectory after reaching a per capita GDP of $20,000 is remarkable, almost doubling twice in 36 years.

美国的基础科学、核心技术、创新能力、知识产权、著名品牌等，是美国发展的根本动力，也是美国远超其他国家的实力所在。更不要说美国宪法赋予公民的权力，以及美国对外来者的开放和包容这些无比珍贵的软实力。而且，美国还具有因充分承担国际义务而带来的对各国的感召力，以及对世界上的泼皮无赖亮剑的军事实力。

The U.S. economy, with its basic science, core technologies, innovation capacity, intellectual property, renowned brands, and more, is the driving force behind its development and its unparalleled strength compared to other countries. Additionally, the rights granted by the U.S. Constitution to its citizens, along with its openness and inclusivity towards outsiders, are invaluable soft power. The U.S. also possesses the power to inspire nations through fulfilling international obligations and a military capability to deal with troublemakers worldwide.

所以，生活在美国，虽然要看到和尽力避免其不安全因素，但更应该从宏观角度看待这一问题。就在今天，WXC上又有人想象各种可怕的事情的发生，又惶惶不可终日了。没错，不用说太远，就在最近这一百年，可怕的事情在美国的确发生了好多次。比如稍远的有大萧条和珍珠港事件，较近的有2008年的次贷危机和前两年的新冠百万人死亡等。想想美国是怎样面对危机、解决危机的。从宏观上讲，前面提到的美国软硬实力的综合，恰恰是生活在美国这片土地上的人民获得安全感的根本保证。

Therefore, while living in the U.S. requires acknowledging and mitigating potential safety concerns, it's more important to view the issue from a macro perspective. I saw some guys posted on WXC, worrying about various alarming scenarios and creating constant anxiety today.  Admittedly, the U.S. has faced many crises in the last century, such as the Great Depression, the Pearl Harbor incident, the 2008 financial crisis, and the recent COVID-19 pandemic causing a million deaths. Reflecting on how the U.S. has confronted and resolved these crises, we should gain confidence. The comprehensive strength of U.S. soft and hard power mentioned above is the fundamental assurance of people's safety living in the United States.

【Edited from ChatGPT translation.】