in 2008, we would note a significant difference: gold was fallin

来源: marketreflections 于 2011-08-10 15:11:46 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (9069 bytes)
回答: gold Christopher Barker Jim Sinclair 由 marketreflections 于 2011-08-09 18:50:17
Focus on Funds
News and analysis on ETFs, mutual funds and hedge funds.
  • August 10, 2011, 9:17 AM ET

BlackRock’s Doll: Gold’s Rise Separates 2008 Crisis From Today

By Murray Coleman

The probability of the U.S. entering a recession is a bit higher than normal at around 30%, says Bob Doll.

But the chief equity strategist at BlackRock (BLK) writes this morning in a note to clients that it would be rare to see a recession at a time when “the Treasury yield curve is positive.”

While economic growth will be “sub-par” for “some time,” Doll isn’t expecting that the second-half will be as weak “as bonds and equities currently imply.”

The plight of gold is also a telling sign, he adds.

“Compared to the situation in 2008, we would note a significant difference: gold was falling, suggesting a deflationary debt problem. Conversely, gold is rising this time, we believe signaling expectations for additional stimulus in some shape or form,” he notes.

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is pointing up 2.3% in pre-markets Wednesday. Another popular precious metals fund, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is ahead by 3%.

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