S&P 500 in 'Air Pocket,' Could Reach 1225: Technical Analysis ...
Mar 19, 2010 – The Standard & Poor's 500 index has entered an “air pocket” of little resistance as it pushed to a 17-month high, according to analysts at ...
air pocket or gap: no resistence or support, thin trade:index ha
回答: whitenoise01 随机过程一般都是二阶矩过程，这种随机过程一般都只涉及其均值函数和相关函数的讨论，白噪声的相关函数只有在
由 marketreflections
于 2011-08-06 17:40:27
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"You know the world has gone mad when..."
48 Comments - Show Original PostCollapse comments
Right Polemic, a mad world indeed.
Also sitting happy on the sidelines for now.
Claus
9:07 AM
Swiss ESZ1 trades 100.01, is that the end of the world?
9:11 AM
Thanks anon.. thats really really stupid. Have amended post accordingly ..cheers
9:29 AM
juste done as ordered, and the magic target is ... Drrrrrrrrumspleez
1062
9:54 AM
You know the world's gone mad when your friend buys you a Jamie Oliver pink Himalayan salt grinder.
9:57 AM
Right Dublin, but tell me please why are we crashing again?
US Downgrade?
Hackney Riots?
Eurofudge turning sour?
US Recession (surely this is well priced in or what?)
I mean, I can see why the world is still overlevered but even the uber bears crawling out of the woodwork need something to keep them going in terms of catalysts.
Anyway, I have cash and this is setting up a monumental opportunity.
CLaus
10:03 AM
Claus, I hear Jemima and Alistair have asked daddy to move them out of Haggerston Park PRONTO. Daddy is obliging, but that means he has to get rid of some Estee Lauders and Netflixes to bid on that Cadogan Sq flat. So there is that.
Agree it looks like an opportunity, and I like looking at the likes of DVY, XOP, even DRG. But then again, everybody on my desk is, so not sure if the pain move is not lower still.
Probably need to "average in" despite having mercilessly mocked that very expression over and over and over.
10:19 AM
Right Dublin, cost averaging in is a good bet here but as for my own holdings I am also a bit unsure. I have one stock which is down 35% (ouch!) and obviously I could greatly reduce my average price on it, but you know ... throwing good (and after all scarce cash) money after bad money is not a good idea.
Claus
10:23 AM
Claus, why is this a problem. Simply issue EFSF bonds to fund the purchase.
10:48 AM
Great post as usual, thanks.
Just one little thing - please don't be one of those people who spells loser "looser"! I know it's petty but I expect the best from you guys!
11:01 AM
Oh I dunno ... looser and rebinding ... subliminal correlation noted.
11:13 AM
Anon 11.01 .. oh dear yes one slipped through, even though the next line had a correct one. We could have just amended it and denied any wrong dooing.. but hands up.. as Clint would have said "Did I use 1 o or 2. Well to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kinda lost track myself"
11:22 AM
Less of the Picolax next time and you'll doo just fine.
11:32 AM
--Anyway, I have cash and this is setting up a monumental opportunity.--
Increasing hunger+shrinking pie=mean reversion.
Claus be nimble.
PP- the plural of loser does remain looser's, however.
11:36 AM
Right, thanks Charles. Our "models" suggest that between now and 3 months out is the time to start looking into and buying, so nimble is the play for now. I.e. if today is like yesterday I kind of know what will happen tomorrow :).
Also, allow me to counter some of the more cynical points in today's TMM entry. I mean, absent storing your money under the bed or buying fine art, gold or whatever the new currency du jour is what us salarised retail twats can realistically hope to do is to put away a little money each month and stuff that into some shares/investment/mutual funds we think will do well over time (i.e. 20-30 years). Calling this is ponzi scheme is fine of course but please advice alternative measures for the little man to earn his way through life?
Claus
11:46 AM
Nice to see the Yen back at pre-intervention highs.
11:50 AM
Lots of mean reversion going on out there. Rain may stop the riots in UK but the London Frontier Housing Market is now officially dead.
Jemima is already packing and going back to Mummy, leaving Jez (used to be Jeremy but, well, you know, just bought a hoodie to fit in, park the suit for a while) to run the estate agent office and pay the mortgage on the flat. The blokes at the corner pub are laughing...
12:32 PM
DVY yield close to 4% probably didn't escape a few people's attention last night. The Great Rotation play will be next. Goodbye, reflationary vehicles...
12:33 PM
Claus - long News Corp/short Moody's. Virtually indistinguishable in fact, the former will be protected by freedom of speech stuff, whilst the other will be put on the rack.
Risk here is that the ratings agency buys out Perez Hilton, for example.
12:42 PM
Some mREIT divies north of 20%. Does anyone seriously expect a rate hike anytime soon?
1:01 PM
what is on your shopping list when the dust clears?
Thinking about HYG, EWG (DAX) and maybe some brazilian power companies
Looking for financials to find a bid before I throw mine out there
Cheers for the good skew trade ideas before... too bad I took them off before VIX reached 40... (25 looked good for summer..meh)
1:05 PM
no point in choosing the bottom. Fed to cut rates and do QE3.
1:10 PM
Well, in a strict sense I suppose all finance is ponzi finance to the extent that the future value of anything is expected to be greater than its present value based on nothing more than the passage of time.
An odd notion, that, when you stop to think about it - which I imagine few of us have done since B school. It may be nothing more than the fact that all of us have lived in a world where "growth" in all things is simply assumed to be a part of the natural order.
It doesn't take the lunatic raving of the likes of Harry Dent to realize that when the demographics of "western" economies shifted, the whole thing was bound to implode. Precisely when and how is just details.
1:14 PM
And LB, what about the cappucino and croissants bicycle repair shop? You reckon they might have cashflow issues next year when done paying the repriced insurance premium on that gorgeous warehouse loft.
mReit - au contraire, people are once again fooling themselves into believing lower rates will trigger refis and therefore lower coupons. Not happening since credit is broken and people are equity trapped.
1:14 PM
Right, just so you all know, my "level" gives a range of 1093 - 1103, and today I have my lucky pants on.
Caveat emptor.
1:25 PM
"Mr Trichet is accused of helping to conceal the full extent of losses run up by the then-state owned bank, Credit Lyonnais, nearly a decade ago, when he was treasury director at the French finance ministry." - BBC 1/6/03
I guess some things never change.
1:40 PM
"You know the world has gone mad when...."
Won't ya just roll with it...they doo.
2:05 PM
Dublin,
Betcha Jez and Jem's Fair Trade World Coffee Lounge is back to being Joe's caff in a year or so.
"Morning, Bert".
"Two fried eggs, sausages, fried tomato and a cuppa Rosie, please, Mavis... luvleee.... 'ere, wot 'appened to them kids wot woz 'ere for a bit? Toffs, I reckon. 'e looked like an iron, if you ask me. Ponytail...'nuff said. She woz a bit of all right, though."
Call us cynics, for we are.
US mREITs are going to be OK, the world is not ending, except perhaps in the UK. Nibble away? Might not be good at the end of the day but it will look smart in a year or so.
Overnight lending rates to be lowered to help US banks weather the panic? Or is that over-reacting?
Rates Low for Extended Period?
Renewed Weakness in the Economy?
Inflation Risks Moderating?
Possible Asset Purchases?
I reckon we see all of those. Bernanke knows this is not the time to p*ss around.
3:03 PM
Hate to be that guy, but can someone tell me what the "3 of 3 of 3 of 3 crowd" is a reference to?
Thanks
3:08 PM
So are you still fooling around with old maid Anna Lee, or are you ready to man up.
btw, check out Ag vol - en fuego!
3:24 PM
Epic post. Some clarity of thinking amidst the fog...
3:56 PM
Mate, there's Anna Lee and her cousin Cimmie, then there's Cypress, Hattie and Arriella....
Got to watch out though, these ladies do like to sell themselves fairly often! This summer it was a good time for them to be out selling their wares and raising cash, with spreads widening and lower rates ahead. Some of these companies are going to have very good numbers next year. 20% yield, in a 1% GDP world. Eventually someone will catch on.
Oh wait, they are going to be "torched" by "higher rates" as the "robust recovery" forces the 10y to "5.5%" and "inflation gets out of control" and "Peak Oil" strikes terror into the developed economies as "crude heads to $250". I forgot the script....
The Bernank should target something useful today instead of just saying "we are going to f*cking print and drop money out of helicopters into the banks until the printing press breaks". But that's more or less what we have come to expect.
So much silliness.... but I guess deflation is hard to get your head around. Slow growth as far as the eye can see, grab some yield and sit in it?
4:05 PM
Hmm, I think LB is right re: Peak Oil. However, the last CPI reading was 3.4% YoY, where's the deflation in that? Why did the ECB raise rates, to fight deflation?
4:15 PM
ECB raised rates because they are idiots.
Not to sound like the Swerve, but with the post Jackson Hole base effects dropping off in commodities (not to mention OECD austerity in full force), I don't think inflation is going to be that much of an issue in 2012.
4:48 PM
Inflation is so tightly yoked to crude oil and gasoline (which feeds into the prices of absolutely everything in the US through delivery costs), but with a constant and predictable delay. It is so easy to understand that you could write an equation to predict it, even if you have a Ph.D. There is no wage inflation or housing cost inflation (guffaw), so no other component is present.
The ECB rate hike was a massive policy error made by tools. It's hard to wait for commodity bubbles to pop but they always do it on their own. Hiking rates actually compounds the slowdown that was already underway due to higher fuel costs.
It's not f*cking brain surgery, is it?
5:00 PM
And now the man with the hanky and the lips is saying this is the worst crisis since WWII.
P'raps he'll be waving it soon.
5:44 PM
through mid bullshit? & that s all folks....
7:22 PM
Rates to stay low for the next millennium, and mREITs looking quite healthy against that backdrop. If you are shorting those stocks, Mr Shorty, I think you are going to have a very sore bottom indeed before long.
I see the energy funds are still committing seppuku. Another lot of margin calls at 3.30 and we will see all kinds of bargains out there again. The difference today is that the trash stocks like BAC are up.
Sharp bounce off 1100.
7:50 PM
1103.09, to be precise. It's a bit tense, isn't it? Let's see if we can get a day without a late puke.
Could be worse, we might be in riot gear in Salford. Boys in blue will have to take care, things are getting a bit naughty out there. After a few days of this brick-chucking stuff the real criminal element comes out.
8:05 PM
the dude who bought that last T note at 2.02% is probably not going to be very happy
the rotation trade is really going to hurt some people now that Japanification is fully priced in
8:18 PM
Hope so, Dublin.
Goldbugs will be next on the chopping block if we get some decent data and the dollar stops diving.
REITs soaring, this morning's pop out to the shops at 9.55 seems to be paying off. I'm having a blinder. Anna Lee is off to the races.
Of course, it's about time, innit?
8:38 PM
Anna Lee moving places. Soon going to be too late at that pace.
I am also quite enjoying the 3 figure reversion in Betty Canuck, and this even before the Swerve has gotten the chance to show us his revised GDP forecasts.
8:44 PM
VIX plummeting.
Yesterday's expensive puts are probably going to expire worthless. The real tell today was seeing the bank stocks staying up when the market tanked to 1103.
Energy puke might still have legs, oddly enough.
8:47 PM
It was Anna's CFO buying 1k shares what did it.
Who shorts a stock that has a 20% dividend you need to replace? I guess that's a conviction call.
Don't think the call on gold is so clear cut, tho.
8:55 PM
No idea at all on gold. Just like to annoy people.
:-)
8:57 PM
Ooooooohhh.. global squeeze of biblical proportions underway. we could be shaking hands with 1250 by the end of the week.
You don't want to look at Mr Shorty today. My, that was a lot of leverage. Nasty.
The question, as always, is now: What Next?
9:04 PM
bro, no axes here. gold is just a trade. both the bears and the bulls have legitimate points. (my divining rod seems to be broken.) in any event, that air pocket going into the close was curious.
take care over there. if you need help, give a shout - we'll send the little frenchman.
9:06 PM
"the rotation trade is really going to hurt some people now that Japanification is fully priced in2
Yes not going to feel so treasured shortly shortly.