Trading the US Debt Rating Downgrade the BoomBustBlog Way
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- Written by ReggieMiddleton
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This is an indepth piece that addresses my subcribers inquiries into trading the fundamental/forensic research I offer. The topic du jour is the US Treasury downgrade.
Attention subscribers: time sensitive, actionable research available at the end of this document.
Illustrative Trade Setups & Opinions For Retail Subscribers of BoomBustBlog
Instrument of choice for retails subscribers: The Proshare ETFs track the total return of an index on a daily basis with a x2 or x3 leverage. Professional and institutional subscribers would most likely trade the treasuries and futures markets directly.
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The Basics
Targeting US Federal Government Fixed Income, there are 2 available indexes, one relating to 7-10yr treasuries (PST - seeks twice (200%) the inverse [opposite] of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index), one for 20yr+ treasuries (TBT - ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury seeks twice (200%) the inverse [opposite] of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index). Because 20Y treasuries have (much) more duration than shorter ones, they tend to move more in price terms as yields move about the same.
This is almost always true of fixed income, except in case of Greece’s current situation where the perception of imminent default causes all securities to converge to the same price, and yields simply to don’t follow the convention rules, ex. 8% of nothing is no less than 20% of nothing.
For an outright play (without options) TBT will be more volatile than PST, and has arguably more leverage embedded. However for an option play, the most volatile instrument is not of paramount importance, what’s most important is the return on the premium invested. A distinct, yet oft overlooked nuance.
Fundamentally Speaking…
From a fundamental play, our traders are not confident the market is ripe for THE BIG FIXED INCOME SELLOFF which would make the 10Y UST look like the Greeks. Actually there’s still a plausible case for 10Y UST moving sub-2% and to begin speaking Japanese ! (JGB yields currently 1% and have touched only a very few times and very briefly 2% in the last 10 years, averaging more 1.3%-1.4%...). Why? Because the FED like the BOJ could just monetize the debt and print money to put them on their balance sheet with a QE3, 4 etc....
The Greek scenario is a bank run scenario, which is possible (as we all know from informative postings such as On Your Mark, Get Set, (Bank) Run! The D…) but timing is everything and everything is difficult ot accomplish!!!
Caveat Emptor!
Even a guy(gal) who bought a 20Y JGB in 2003 at the lowest ever, 1% yield, if he held it through today, has made money despite the higher yield today.... The (BTFD -Buy The Fu@&ing Dip) mentality is truly firmly entrenched! To what should be no one’s surprise, the speculative longs are mostly the banks, "hedging" their ALM mismatch by buying bonds, assuming their deposits are stable.
The bank’s risk becomes a MTM risk, but accounting rules allow them to cope with that as long the deposits are there. For more strategically inclined banks (wink, wink), MtM losses would only affect their AFS (available for sale) reserves and capital (so not the net result of the bank).
Note: There is a potentially very profitable equity trade stemming from this habit, see The Mechanics Behind Setting Up A Potent… & European Bank Run Trading Supplement Ava…).
Of course because everybody is long, there are episodes of panic and risk reduction which are violent because it becomes a one-way market, but when everybody has reduced risk, it snaps back violently and a new cycle begins... so it has been.
The pain trade in FI for banks is lower yields, because high yields is how banks make easy money. Remember my comments on ZIRP killing the banks it was designed to help (reference the YouTube Video and scroll 13 minutes into the video).
On a short term basis, if anything our traders bet for higher FI prices and lower stocks again... and panic to resume.
Note how the 121 strike on the SPY were well chosen (reference subscription document SPY option strategies in violent down moves). We’ve come through, and as the market continues to sell off, you could continue to adjust your delta buying back (and locking actual profits because even if the market doesn’t move anymore your puts are in the money) when the market sells off and when it bounces towards 121 again, you can unload it. We saw 116 at the lows... gamma is how you make a killing with options.
With the aforementioned limitations, caveats and market behaviors in mind, I'm pleased to present to BoomBustBlog subscribers the following detailed, illustrative trade setups...
Actionable Note on PST & TBT Options Strategies - Retail: A very informative guide to options trade setups based upon the viewpoints ascribed above.- Actionable Note on PST & TBT Options Strategies - Professional: A more indepth, document including technical and volatility skew opinion
