check01 blogs.wsj.com/economics/

来源: marketreflections 于 2011-08-05 14:56:37 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (48640 bytes)
回答: 蚂蚁算法的投资组合模型 由 marketreflections 于 2011-08-04 18:33:22
Real Time Economics

Economic insight and analysis from The Wall Street Journal.

  • Aug 5, 2011
    3:26 PM

    Business Roundup: Companies Tailor Strategies to Uncertainty

    By WSJ Staff

    The sluggish recovery—and recent market turmoil—have some large U.S. businesses tailoring their strategies to the new environment. A look inside some of the the new approaches.

  • Aug 5, 2011
    1:14 PM

    Three Things the Fed Could Do Right Now

    By Jon Hilsenrath

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke faces tough choices as he prepares for the central bank’s next policy meeting Tuesday and a speech at the Fed’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyo., later this month.

  • Aug 5, 2011
    12:18 PM

    Labor Force Participation Hits New Low

    By Sara Murray

    Two years into the economic recovery labor force participation has hit a new low.

    The labor force participation rate, the share of Americans who are working or looking for jobs, declined to 63.9% in July from 64.1% a month earlier, the Labor Department said Friday. July’s numbers were a new low for the measure, which has dropped during the recession and slow recovery to its lowest percentage since the early 1980s.

    The employment-population ratio, the share of the working-age population that is employed, showed a similar trend. It, ticked down to 58.1% from 58.2% in June, another new low for this downturn.

    “July 1983–a time when American feminism was only halfway born–was the last time we saw an employment-to-population ratio this low,” Brad DeLong, a University of California, Berkeley, economist wrote Friday.

    Declining participation carries a toll – both for the sidelined workers and for the entire economy.

    When participation falls it’s an indication that Americans have grown discouraged about their chances of finding jobs and have given up looking. That’s a particular concern during this downturn when long-term unemployment has been prevalent.

    Nearly 6.2 million Americans were out of work for more than six months in July and the median length of a spell of unemployment was 21.2 weeks. Those who have been out of the job market for long periods commonly cite problems with anxiety and depression and research has shown lasting spells of joblessness can reduce a worker’s lifespan.

    A drop in participation is bad for the economy because the economy loses the productivity that would have come from those sidelined workers. Jobless Americans also tend turn to programs such as Social Security disability, and often end up remaining on it for the rest of their lives, which comes at a cost to the federal government.

    Falling labor force participation does make the official unemployment rate fall: With fewer Americans searching for jobs, the rate can fall even amid slow job creation. A broader measure of unemployment, which includes those who want to work but have given up looking, stood at 16.1% in July.

  • Aug 5, 2011
    10:22 AM

    Economists React: Recession Averted?

    By Sara Murray

    Economists weigh in on July’s employment report:

    –Recession averted! Well, not really. While July’s employment report provides a drop of decent news amidst a downpour of depressing data, it does little to change our fundamental thesis of long-lasting economic sluggishness. Today’s report included, the lack of meaningful job growth thus far in 2011 remains deeply troubling for the course of consumer spending over the next 6 – 12 months. –Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott

    –All in all, today’s numbers may quell recession anxiety at the margin – in our judgment, the real source of recession risk is more about European debt contagion than US domestic fundamentals (which, for now, are consistent with sluggish growth, not recession). –Jay Feldman, Credit Suisse

    –The payroll gain was the strongest in three months and reasonably broad based and there were upward revisions in payroll growth to the prior two months. There is better news on manufacturing in the gain in hours worked and our proxy for wage and salary income rose by 0.5%, which is good news for consumers. This report is very important for investors because the equity market had finally caved in with a 12% drop from the highs and fear…had replaced complacency. We were looking for a better entry point on equities and now we may have it. For bonds this is bad news as investors may look to put more risk on and as the gain in payrolls likely squashes the hopes of some for QE3. –RDQ Economics

    –The unemployment rate fell 0.1 to 9.1 percent, which was also better than expected. Both the labor force and household employment fell, however, so the drop is not cause for cheer. The report still shows the economy losing momentum. – Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo

    –The July jobs report was not as bad as May and June. That’s about the best that we can say for it. Jobs rose more rapidly, but still not enough to create a downward trend in the unemployment rate. –Nigel Gault, IHS Global Insight

    –Wages rose 0.4%, double the consensus, 0.2%. This is a relief. We were always deeply suspicious of the June numbers because the seasonals were so savage, and we expected both a rebound in July and an upward revision to June. The July seasonal factor was almost identical to last year. – Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics, Ltd.

    –With fiscal austerity here, the private sector needs to do more heavy lifting and while this is a step in the right direction, we need more. Third, underlying dynamics in the labor market remain poor.The participation rate continues to hit new lows, the labor force is not growing (it has fallen over 400k in two months), and jobs on the household survey have fallen in three of the last four months. – Eric Green, TD Securities

  • Aug 5, 2011
    10:03 AM

    Secondary Sources: Behind the Selloff, New Economic Thinking, Fiscal Stimulus

    By Brenda Cronin

    A roundup of economic news from around the Web.

    -Another Financial Crisis? Michael Schulman deconstructs Thursday’s global markets rout for clues about whether we’re on the threshold of another global crash. He writes today on the Curious Capitalist, “The recent selloff could be no more than a correction, a gravity-induced return to reality. Markets in Asia recovered from their early lows by the end of the day. But at the same time, the global stock selloff is a result of the inability of the West’s political leaders to tackle their serious economic problems. I’d like to hope that the recent turmoil is not the start of a renewed crisis, but a warning for politicians in Berlin, Brussels and Washington, that it’s finally time to get their collective acts together.”

    -Economic Overhaul: Adair Turner, chairman of Britain’s Financial Services Authority, says conventional economic wisdom isn’t the appropriate framework for today’s conundrum of generating growth. In a three-part series on the Globalist, he writes, “My general point is that good economics leaves us with far wider degrees of freedom to make political and social choices than has frequently been asserted. The role of good economics is to inform those choices, not to deny their possibility — and that is a pretty good guiding principle for new economic thinking.”

    -Fiscal Stimulus: Diane Lim Rogers makes a case that all stimulus isn’t created equal. She writes today on EconomistMom, “Is new fiscal stimulus not at all a possibility, given that the country will have “no appetite” for more deficit spending? I think adding to the level of short-term deficit spending would be hard if not impossible, politically. But economically, it’s not a bad constraint to have, because it would make for an overall better fiscal policy if the federal government were forced to stick to a certain level of deficit spending devoted to “stimulus” (encouraging demand for goods and services) and made sure that any projects, transfer payments, or tax cuts funded by this limited pot of deficit-financed stimulus money were those that “won the contest” for “highest bang-per-buck.”

  • Aug 5, 2011
    12:01 AM

    Monster Employment Index: Sideways Job Market

    By Conor Dougherty

    The Monster Employment Index, an index of job postings from various Internet sites compiled by Monster Worldwide, points to weak job growth in July. The Monster Index was at 144 in July, down from 146 in June (a not surprising summer slowdown, since the index is not seasonally adjusted). But the July reading was up just 4% from last year – and the year-over-year gains have been generally decelerating. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect today’s Labor Department report will show total nonfarm payrolls rose by 75,000 in July, after factoring in expected layoffs at state and local governments. They forecast the unemployment rate will stay at 9.2%. The Monster Index, when measured year-over-year, has thus far been a leading indicator of the job market, decelerating sharply over the past several months.

  • Aug 4, 2011
    4:11 PM

    IRS Sees Just A Few Thousand Multi-Millionaires

    By Kristina Peterson

    For all the recent ire directed toward millionaires and billionaires, there aren’t all that many of them, according to data from the Internal Revenue Service this week.

    Millionaires made up just over 0.1% of the more than 140 million tax returns filed in 2009. At the tippy top, there were just 8,274 returns filed by those with income of $10 million or more. In its data, the IRS does not distinguish between returns from individuals and those from households.

    More than 97% of tax returns filed in 2009 reported an income of $200,000 or less. And the biggest chunk of returns – about 13% – were from those making between $50,000 and $75,000. Their average tax bill was $4,740.

    The overall average income of in 2009 was $54,283. That was a drop of 7.7% from the previous year.

  • Aug 4, 2011
    1:23 PM

    Trichet Sounds Hawkish Note on Inflation

    By Nina Koeppen

    The euro zone’s inflation outlook has remained largely unchanged since the European Central Bank‘s July policy meeting, ECB President Jean Claude Trichet said Thursday, noting that he would not rule out further rate increases despite the ECB broadening its efforts to support fragile financial markets.

    Speaking in a television interview with Dow Jones Newswires, Trichet said “our judgment is very much the same as in the previous meeting a month ago. We consider that we’re still in a situation where the risks are more on the upside… and that we will have to monitor the situation very closely.”

  • Aug 4, 2011
    1:18 PM

    BNY Mellon Deposit Fee: Life in the Liquidity Trap

    By Jon Hilsenrath

    Bank of New York’s move to charge a fee on large deposits is emblematic of much broader strains that plague the U.S. economy and the global financial system.

    In response to the recession and anemic recovery, the Federal Reserve has pushed interest rates to zero and purchased $2.6 trillion worth of mortgage and Treasury securities. In the process, it has flooded the financial system with cash. But banks and investors are reluctant to put that cash to work because they are worried about the economic outlook. With no other place to put it, they’re parking it in banks.

    Economists call this a liquidity trap — liquid cash is trapped in the financial system and not finding its way into productive investments and spending in part because demand is so weak.

  • Aug 4, 2011
    11:49 AM

    Surf’s Down in California?

    By Conor Dougherty

    California was one of the first states into the Great Recession, so it’s a state worth watching amid fears of a double-dip.

    To that end, several economic indicators show California continues to languish under high unemployment and that business is now turning down. In a note to clients, Brian Sozzi, and equity research analyst at Wall Street Strategies Inc., pointed out that in a recent conference call Office Depot said its sales weakness in California has resurfaced. “Costco removed California (where it gets 20% plus of its annual sales) as a strong state for sales on its sales call, while underperformance at Zumiez also sparks concern given its exposure,” Mr. Sozzi added. (See a chart of how retailers fared in July)

    Meantime, California still has the nation’s largest collection of high-unemployment metropolitan areas — a reflection not only of the state’s large population but also the list of lingering economic problems due to the housing market and construction

请您先登陆，再发跟帖！