ta01 RS=一段时间内收市上涨之和的平均值/一段时间内收市价下跌数之和的平均值

at st bottom, oversold, shorts no follow throughers, price start to close more at up end of the range, , stochastic's and RSI, st mva start to raise up,

oversold level. MACD's are somewhat off the bottom, but they always lag behind

投资中的RSI指标详解

 

2008年12月16日 星期二 13:18

 

一．强 弱 指 标 RSI 1、原理：RSI的原理简单来说是以数字计算的方法求出买卖双方的力量对比，反映市场买卖双方的供求情况。譬如有100个人面对一件商品，如果50个人以上要买，竞相抬价，商品价格必涨。相反，如果50个人以上争着卖出，价格自然下跌。 强弱指标理论认为，任何市价的大涨或大跌，均在0-100之间变动，根据常态分配，认为RSI值多在30-70之间变动，通常80甚至90时被认为市场已到达超买状态(Overbought)，至此市场价格自然会回落调整。当价格低跌至30以下即被认为是超卖(Oversold)，市价将出现反弹回升。 2、计算方法：相对强弱指标是通过比较一定时段收市价格而计算出来的 RSI=100-[100/(1+RS)] 其中RS=一段时间内收市上涨之和的平均值/一段时间内收市价下跌数之和的平均值 3、RSI的指示作用 趋势理论指出，涨势过程中各次级波动的低点一波比一波高，将各波的低点相连接，便可连成一条直线，这就是上升趋势线，跌势过程中各次级波动的低点一波比一波低，将过去的低点相连接，也可连成一条直线，这就是下降趋势线。根据上升趋势线和下降趋势线，就可以看出一段时期内的期价变动方向。 在强弱指标图形中，从表面上看，将每日的RSI连接起来所形成的图形极不规则，但事实上，在上升的趋势里，由于期价向上移动，相应地，强弱指标也随之向上移动，而下降趋势里期价向下移动，强弱指标值也随之向下移动。换言之，将强弱指标图形所显示的低点与低点连接起来，或将高点与高点连接起来，也可以画出上升的趋势线与下降的趋势线。 从以上分析和计算可以看出，RSI的作用主要表现在： A、RSI值在变化范围均在0-100之间。一般来说，RSI值保持在50以上时，为强势市场，低于50时，为弱势市场。 B、RSI值在50-70之间波动时，表示市场出现超买现象，如继续上升，超过90时，则已到严重超买区，价格已形成顶部，极可能在短期内转升为跌。 C、当RSI值下降至50-30时，表示市场已进入超卖状态；如果一旦下降至10以下，表明进入严重超卖区，价格可能止跌回升。 D、超买及超卖范围的确定，还取决于两个因素：第一个因素是市场特性；起伏不大的稳定市场一般可以规定RSI值在70以上为超买，在30以下为超卖。变化比较剧烈的市场可以规定RSI值80以上为超卖，20以下的超卖。应该注意的是，超卖和超卖本身并不构成出入市的信号，有时行情变化得过于迅速，RSI值会超出正常范围，这时RSI的超买或超卖往往失去了出入市警告信号的作用。第二个因素是计算RSI所取的时间参数。时间参数不同，超买超卖的界定不同。可以作为参考的区间划分： I. 周期为14的RSI值超过70即为超买，低于30为超卖。 II. 周期为9的RSI值超过80即为超买，低于20为超卖。 III. 周前为6的RSI值超过90即为超买，低于15为超卖。 IV. 当RSI值介于40－60之间时，实现市场处于盘整格局。 E、RSI上升而价格反而下跌，或RSI下降而价格反而上涨，这种情况称为“背驰”。背驰意味着市场可能反转。

We have a market that spent a lot of time moving slowly off its original highs at 2887 Nasdaq and 1370 S&P 500. A slow methodical move lower that suddenly picked up a lot of steam a few weeks back. A tremendous move lower on impulsive oscillators. It confirmed the selling as the real deal. Once you get oversold enough on such an intense move lower, you need to spend a decent amount of time working off the MACD, stochastic's, and RSI from deeply oversold conditions. The market has been doing that lately setting up a clear bear flag pattern that is allowing the oscillators to move higher without too much price appreciation. This is more bear market like behavior. The 20 and sometimes as high as the 50 day exponential moving averages capping any move higher setting the boundaries in the bear flag pattern. The 20 or 50 day exponential moving average the top and the 200-day exponential moving average at the bottom.

Too tough for the bears to break below those 200's because of oversold, but too tough for the bulls take back the lost 20's or 50's. The longer you trade between the two the higher the oscillators move, and that's bad news for the bulls. They would need to minimally break back above the 50-day exponential moving average to say they at least did some damage to the bears while these oscillators unwound. If they can't do that it's bad news bigger picture. So far, although its early, they have been unable to do the job they really need to get done. Many of the stochastic's on the important index daily charts are as high as 50+ while RSI's have gotten decently above 30, or the oversold level. MACD's are somewhat off the bottom, but they always lag behind. With today's close we have done unwinding, but price isn't good, and thus, we have to start becoming more concerned with the possibility of this market breaking down to a new leg lower.

What's really troubling about today's action overall is the fact that late yesterday it was announced that Greece would get their bailout package because Greece's Government promised the loaners an austerity package against its citizens. Good news in some perverse way, and the market loved it. The Dow rallied almost 150 points from the time of that announcement, while the Nasdaq flew up into the green at the close of trading, up 17 points. You would think, with no bad news overnight, that the market would follow through on that piece of news today.

The futures were blasting higher overnight ,as they should, one would think. They began to erode late in the night and into the morning. We opened up flat and headed south from there. Where was the follow-through? Nowhere to be found, unfortunately, for the bulls. Yesterday's news was simply a reflex bounce caused by the news, that in truth, everyone knows isn't really good news. Chasing more good dollars after bad. Wonder where we've seen that before! The fact that we didn't rise up today in the market after the Greece news has to be looked upon as bad action for the short-term. Greece ultimately meant nothing to the market. Not good for the bullish case.

You want to see how leaders are leading, or not. In the financial sector, the real leader of the pack is JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM). The very best of the best in that world with the best numbers on their books relative to their competitors such as Bank of America Corporation (BAC) or Citigroup, Inc. (C). The stock cratered down today, setting a new low in its pattern. No leadership. In fact, leadership to the downside, which is bad news for a sector that continues to implode on itself week after week with some bounces, of course, along the way.

Nothing good ever seems to come from this sector and there doesn't seem to be any good news on the horizon as QE2 is about to end in six days. No more flooding of cash to the banks. The flooding of cash didn't work to stimulate the economy, and now that last trick is being taken away from the major financial institutions. Last thing they need, but because of the inflation it's causing in the real world, the gift of dollars to these banks is finally, and appropriately, being taken away. Not a lot of good news it seems in this area of the market, and one would think we need to see some type of recovery there before we can get too excited about the markets bigger picture prospects.

The key numbers to watch for a breakout, or a breakdown, are 1298 on the S&P 500 for a move higher and 1249 S&P 500 for a move lower. 1249 is the ultimate line in the sand. 2600 is the ultimate line in the sand for the Nasdaq. While the market looks terrible technically you never know how things will play out. The MACD's on the daily charts give some hope to the bullish case, but not much else at this point in time. A directional move should occur whichever breaks first. Anything in between is purely market noise and nothing else no matter how good or bad it may look.

We got to the 20-day exponential moving average and the market suddenly felt and looked good. It didn't play out that way. It hit the 200-day exponential moving average, and things looked like market death, but the market held easily. All trading in between 1298 and 1249 is nothing important. You can be right on 1249 and right on 1298, but again, meaningless until you get a forceful move above, or below, those important support and resistance levels. Stay nimble. Keep things extraordinarily light. Cash is a wonderful thing. We have much to learn about the markets intent going forward. Only a clean break of 1249 or 1298 matter. Don't forget that please.