check01 Macro Man engineered squeeze to create an exit rally
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check01 杨易君 威尔鑫 过于沉迷追捧这种概念性行情对市场的刺激 故事情节 投机行情
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05/26/2011 postreply
15:57:03
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check01 Macro Man http://www.gmfus.org/cs/news-analysis Bruce St
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05/26/2011 postreply
16:09:42
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"Germany catching a cold"
7 Comments - Show Original PostCollapse comments
TMM, excuse my ignorance but I was hoping you could explain what a FCI model is.
2:54 PM
likewise.. can you elaborate on what your model is comprised of ...
nice post though... shatz was well behind the curve, its taken a long time for it to turn... conversly in the US, the short end I think has priced all of this in already.. might be a good spread...
4:25 PM
Definitely looking the tough domino in the field, -ve 1.38 first 8mths 2010, -ve 1.42 Jan 2010 - Feb 2011, looking at it with a lag vs China imports, run along side survey measures, you sure get a feel for their optimism, yeah? ....you reckon our Bavarian traders may be suffering some sort of normalcy bias around these levels, now?.....I bet someone out there is overlaying an effective fx model over GE that exposes their fx advantage vs the rest of our DM trading partners....I'll go a little further and treat any movement in survey indicators with twice the amount of sensitivity, up or down.
4:55 PM
Agree, it seems as though we have to have one big impulsive move downwards before this market has finished digesting the global slowdown. When we reach the point where energy and commodities find a sustainable level, it will probably be safe to get long the market again. Until then, pairs trades will be in vogue. Long defensives, short cyclicals still seems like the trade that is least crowded.
Re: Marmite. The Danes are bonkers, it's hard enough to find anything to eat in Copenhagen apart from breakfast. LB lost about ten pounds in a week there last summer, lousy tourist restaurants and the prices were reminiscent of 1980s Tokyo.
USDJPY still seems to be locked to the short end of the yield curve. If the slowdown is priced in to rate expectations, USDJPY should be poised to rise from here, no?
5:46 PM
Energy up today in the face of increased supply and slowing economic data? Smells to me like an engineered squeeze to create an exit rally. Let's see if trapped longs take this opportunity to unwind more of the exhausted DGDF trade this week....
5:54 PM
God, you Brits are so sensitive on this Marmite stuff :). The word in the Danish press this afternoon is that we are duly backtracking and it is now allowed with a "permission" to sell. I mean, it is not as if it tastes good or anything ...
On the market, it is all very sensitive at the moment. If it is still the old themes that hold you would want to buy right about now as the SP500 seems to be flirting at the 100dma support, but it may be different. AUD/USD seems to be having a rough time too and vis a vis TMM yesterday, I agree on the ZAR too.
Also I don't get the Squid here, first they are bearish on commods and now they are bullish?! What gives, did they suddenly find out that they had a little bit of copper stashed in Shanghai close to expiry?
USD/JPY is my big bet for Q2 and thus, I stand shoulder to shoulder with LB here (aka the Peanut gallery). I think the BOJ will continue to expand its balance sheet as QE2 levels off, but if it turns into a rout, we can expect the Beard to turn even more dovish.
Claus
7:58 PM
Still no sign of the real money guys running for cover from what I can see, so we remain in the Voldermont driven frustration fest that we have grown to hate. They are the bid every day in Euro (and the rest) and that has the unhappy knack of turning short term 'sentiment' in other risk buckets as well.
As much as I can agree with the world having to wake up to global growth falling over story I suspect the leg we really need to fall is equities. Real money have parked way to much cash in that bucket at rich levels that it needs to hurt them before things get ugly. These guys still believe the teflon gloves prevent any harm coming to them.
Break that thought process and we may have a game to watch. db