20-day 历史波动率》13,s&p指数 跌到20天均线下,可能是非偶然事件,下跌趋势开始?

来源: 2010-11-28 10:42:04 [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

http://www.crbtrader.com/support/options.asp

HISTORICAL VOLATILITY (20-day):
STEP 1
For the past 20 days, calculate: today's close / previous close (requires 21 days of data)

STEP 2
Calculate the natural log of the results calculated in STEP 1.

STEP 3
Calculate the sum of the natural logs over the past 20 days.
Calculate the sum of the squares of the natural logs over the past 20 days.

STEP 4
Divide the sum of the natural logs by 20.......................#1
Divide the sum of the squares of the natural logs by 20........#2
Calculate: RESULT 2 - the square of RESULT 1...................#3
Calculate the (square root of RESULT 3) x (sq. root of 252) x 100
This is the 20-day historic volatility for today.