bulk of the increase in unemployment has come from non-manufactu

回答: www.econbrowser.com capital goods importmarketreflections2010-10-05 09:28:09

http://seekingalpha.com/article/171858-jobless-recoveries-are-a-recent-phenomenon?source=commenter

http://seekingalpha.com/author/tim-iacono/articles

The "jobless recovery" phenomenon dates back to the 1990 recession. Midway through Clinton's first term in late 1994, early 1995, commentators were still referring to the jobless recovery (and blaming it on President Bush... some things never change.)

This chart (total employment, not seasonally adjusted, establishment survey) clearly shows that employment levels, which in earlier recoveries rebounded quickly at recession's end, recovered more gradually coming out of the 1990 and 2001 recessions.

research.stlouisfed.or...

Surely, in the post-war recessions up to and including the early 80's double-dip recession, employment levels during recessions were driven by contraction and expansion of the manufacturing sector, which responded quickly with layoffs and re-hiring as the economic outlook changed. Since then, employment changes have been more moderated.

The following chart (manufacturing payrolls, seasonally adjusted this time) shows that in the 1990 and 2001 recessions, manufacturing payrolls actually shrunk after the recession's end (consistent with Tom E.'s comment that firms use recessions to off-shore manufacturing jobs).

research.stlouisfed.or...

But it's too simplistic to ascribe the change in post-recession employment too off-shoring of manufacturing jobs. The second chart shows that manufacturing jobs have declined by a little over 2 million since their peak just before the current recession. With a labor force of about 140 million, the direct result of the decrease in manufacturing jobs during the current recession is an increase in the unemployment rate of about 1.4%, only about one-quarter of the 5.3% increase in the unemployment rate during the recession. So the bulk of the increase in unemployment has come from non-manufacturing jobs.

Indeed, it seems that non-manufacturing jobs may have more "flex" in per-capita productivity, so that as the economy expands, firms can expand output with a smaller number of workers (for awhile) before they are compelled to begin hiring again.

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