data check, imarketnews.com：Next Wk/US:

http://imarketnews.com/node/17882

Friday, August 13, 2010 - 10:16
Next Wk/US: Housing Starts, IP, PPI, LEI, Philly Fed, TICS
PrintEmail

By Theresa Sheehan

PRINCETON (SMRA) - For the week ahead the July data for industrial production and capacity utilization Tuesday will cover a period of extremely hot weather for much of the U.S., and consequently demand for utilities to cool homes and business will climb.

The earliest of the housing sector data will be released midmorning Monday with the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August. The index remains consistent with a more pessimistic outlook, and is unlikely to turn substantially higher with the current slow patch in the economy and persistent high unemployment.

Data on housing starts and permits issued in July Tuesday morning should be of a piece with the prior readings of the NAHB index. Stocks of new homes remain quite limited, but without some sign of an upturn in demand, builders will remain reluctant to begin new projects. There also appears to be a downshift to smaller homes and multi-units as consumers are more cautious about the price of homes, and opt for smaller properties.

The Producer Price Index for July Tuesday morning will read as a bit of an afterthought since it is being released two business days after the CPI. It should also show some modest gains that will be a relief from the concerns about deflation.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for July midmorning Thursday should be up once again after falling slightly in June. Positive contributions are expected from interest rates, plant and equipment, vendor performance, the workweek, and building permits. Falling consumer confidence and stock prices should make a negative contribution.

The Treasury International Capital System (TICS) for June on Monday will refine what is already known about foreign demand for US debt and equities abroad.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended August 14 Thursday morning comes after a spike in claims in the prior week. To some extent that may have been due to workers returning to the rolls with the renewal of extended benefits, which may have been miscounted as new claims. This is the survey comparison week for August from July.

Two of the most forward looking of the indicators for the factory sector are scheduled this coming week. The New York Fed's Empire State Survey is Monday morning, and the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey is midmorning Thursday. The trend in the general activity index of the various Fed District Bank surveys of manufacturing has been down, but with the exception of the Dallas survey, all have been maintaining growth.

The BLS reports on mass layoffs and state unemployment for July are both scheduled for midmorning Friday. Layoff activity should remain quite low for the month with the exception of higher than usual cuts in government. State and regional data on unemployment may show drops in those localities where unemployment is most persistent, and where the loss of extended benefits at least temporarily moved some workers out of the count for the unemployed.

Overall, although the August 16 economic data calendar is not particularly busy, it does have some first-tier reports that will help further solidify the outlook for the U.S. economy in the third quarter. There will also be a continued lull in the presence of Fed officials on public engagement calendars, with only one Fed District Bank President scheduled to speak.

Technically it is not economic data, and officially it is not on the calendar. However, we expect the Fed to release the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Monday afternoon. It will update the view of credit conditions in the U.S. for both commercial and industrial businesses and households. We would anticipate an emphasis on small business lending in the special questions.

Another event that is not data but which will be watched carefully is the Treasury and HUD conference Tuesday on the future of Fannie and Freddie. The 12 panelists, mortgage, credit and academic experts, are varied enough to guarantee there will be no particular consensus reached on the future of housing finance at this initial session.

The weekly measures of retail activity could get a boost from the concentration of sales tax holidays in the second weekend of August. The ICSC/Goldman-Sachs Index at 7:45 ET on Tuesday could show stronger sales, especially since many retailers are offering back-to-school bargains in conjunction with the short period of tax relief.

U.S. Treasury Auctions

The first leg of the quarterly refunding auction is done and will settle on Monday. There are no coupon auctions during the week, but there is an announcement on Thursday of a reopening of the 30-year TIPS bond, and new 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes. The auctions will take place in the subsequent week on Monday through Thursday, respectively.

Central Bank Meetings

There are no major central bank announcements on the calendar until early September.

On Thursday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will be in Rogers, Arkansas to speak on the U.S. economy.

所有跟帖： 

• best data check, www.tradingeconomics.com/World-Economy/Calendar -marketreflections- ♂ (59 bytes) () 08/16/2010 postreply 15:30:19

• best data check, www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?s=b7b4dbde552 -marketreflections- ♂ (75 bytes) () 08/16/2010 postreply 15:42:52

• hedge fund manager：‘Diary of a Very Bad Year’ -marketreflections- ♂ (7622 bytes) () 08/16/2010 postreply 15:56:07

• best daily data check, "appetite aversion risk" -marketreflections- ♂ (75 bytes) () 08/16/2010 postreply 16:13:21

• www.tradingfloor.com yields ended the day close to the low in As -marketreflections- ♂ (3791 bytes) () 08/16/2010 postreply 16:29:26

• http://forex.tradingcharts.com/chart/Australian%20Dollar_US%20Do -marketreflections- ♂ (73 bytes) () 08/16/2010 postreply 18:55:38

• http://www.ac-markets.com/forex-news/daily-snapshot-2010-8-16.as -marketreflections- ♂ (66 bytes) () 08/16/2010 postreply 21:14:04