four to six-week mid-summer rally on thin volumes will bring a b

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25885403

The FTSE 100's correction from its recent April peak is likely to continue to October and wipe a further 10% off the index's value, Cazenove technical strategist Robin Griffiths believes.
London's leading index has already fallen 13.7% from from its April peak of 5,825 and Griffiths expects the losses to hit 25% from this figure.

ADVERTISEMENT
"We are in a cyclical correction and they can be quite brutal," Griffiths says.

He says a four to six-week mid-summer rally on thin volumes will bring a brief respite to an overall fall of 20% to 25%, which started in mid-April and should last until October.

"Leading up to October we will be buying a lot of gold, but then just before October we will buy good quality companies in the FTSE and Dax," Griffiths says.

Bear Market Rally Will Take S&P to 1350: Strategist
Topics:Economy (U.S.) | Investment Strategy | NYSE | Stock Picks | Stock Market
Sectors:BanksBy: CNBC.com | 28 Jul 2008 | 10:25 AM ET Text Size The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is in the middle of a summer rally that could see the index rise to 1350 before the overall bear-market trend takes it lower again, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist from Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.



The S&P is currently undergoing a counter-trend rally, Griffiths said, which "began from massively oversold levels and was triggered by a slight pull-back in the price of oil and also the saving of Freddie [FRE 2.68 --- UNCH (0) ] and Fannie [FNM 0.506 -0.009 (-1.75%) ]."

A counter-trend rally usually has rise, then a small set-back and then another rise, Griffiths said. He said he expects the index is currently in the set-back phase, and he expects it could rise to 1350 before being finally being claimed by the bears some time at the end of the summer.

Griffiths expects the normal downtrend associated with a bear trend will resume in September or October as people return from the summer vacation season. He expects another big down leg in that period. (For the full interview see video above)

Investors looking to hedge against a further downturn in the S&P should by Proshare S&P Short ETF, according to Alpesh Patel, principal at Praefinium Group, because the exchange-traded fund inversely tracks the index's performance.

"For every percentage (point) that the S&P falls, the fund rises one percent. And that gives a lot of comfort to a lot of investors," Patel told "Worldwide Exchange." (For the full interview click here >>>).

所有跟帖： 

• Doug Kass -marketreflections- ♂ (1960 bytes) () 07/21/2010 postreply 18:15:56