Also, market makers are not affected by short sell bans, in fact

http://www.stocktock.com/2009/10/06/intraday-commentary-10062009/comment-page-1/

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FocalEquity SocialFocalEquity ForumFocalEquity Blog « Intraday Commentary ~ 10/05/2009Charts on the Dollar, Gold, and SPX »

06
Oct Intraday Commentary ~ 10/06/2009
By: Idan In: Intraday Commentary, Trading Blog
2:44pm
A break of 105.15 would mean the end of the push lower as we have an inverse H&S breakout… the bears need to push this market down now if they want to form a reversal day.

2:27pm
If you are short and want to get protection to the upside , SPX at 1047 or 1042.20 is a good place to be buying longs.


2:10pm
Financials disagree with the rally. XLF down.

1:46pm
Yes, we are up significantly for the day, but lets not forget that we gapped up, therefore even ending the day at these levels will not be bullish because we have reversal candles on a lot of stocks, A LOT OF them. Bulls need to push us above 1055 or higher for me to believe in a sustained upward trending into tomorrow. Bears breaking 1052.50 is important but ultimately you want to see a break of 1047.

12:52pm
Bears finally back in, resistance held. But for bears to be better off into tomorrow, we have to see more downward action BELOW 105.30 on the SPY.

11:32am
Last resistance for the bears was hit a few minutes ago with the perfect retrace of the wedge (120 SPX )



10:41am
SPY 60 minute. downward channel potentially breaking unless bears push lower soon:


10:28am
I got stopped lossed on almost every position with small profits and AAPL with small losses. The Hedge fund was stopped loss on WYNN, GYMB yesterday. S&P still has to break the 1057 level, if it does so, we will see more upside. AMZN, JPM, SBUX still in play.

2:46am
I am back but will start commentary late tomorrow. I wanted to say that there is still a potential for a move higher to 9650. That said we are overdue for a pull back, so if we open lower I would be looking to get out of shorts and wait for the market to bounce midday and short at the retest of the broken small wedge ascending support as resistance at 9650 or a max of 1057 on the S&P.

If we get a pull back early tomorrow, going long with a stop under 1018 still works. Going short with a stop over 1057 works too.





The views, opinions and analysis expressed in this post are strictly those of the author.
For further information, please see the FocalEquity Disclaimer
194 Responses to “Intraday Commentary ~ 10/06/2009”
Newer Comments »1. StockStarter says:
October 6, 2009 at 4:43 am
This report is unsettling, if true, especially due to the mention of Japan and France, imho:

Gulf Arabs with China, Russia, Japan and France; are they dumping the USD? To buy Oil in a non-USD basket currency…

http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=444

2. Bleeding Shortseller says:
October 6, 2009 at 5:34 am
Futures up over 1% and dollar falling like a rock. So much for everyone looking at dollar strength.

Gold. No more trading, buying and holding gold and silver while USA implodes.

Bleeding Shortseller replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:39 am


Low quality golds like AGT GRZ GSS will double over the next month as the
dollar is burnt en mass by china.
Next will be hyper inflation for the usa as oil heads back to 155.

Last cause was dollar dumping. How quick we forget.

Idan, plse stop with the dow or nasdaq and lets start doing gold and silver charts.

gjg1963 replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 7:06 am


Why do stocks have direct inverse relationship with dollar? Equities and earnings are dollar denominated. They should not logically be going up. And dont give me Cramers head of lettuce analogy.

morris replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 7:51 am


If the dollar decreases in value, it will take more of them to purchase something. For example, if the dollar lost half of its value, it would then take 10 dollars to purchase something that previously cost 5 dollars (as long as the intrinsic value of the thing you are purchasing has not changed in the meantime).

Nancy Pelosi's Permanent Happy Face replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:28 am


But gigi’s correct that this relationship will only last as long as investors still have a stomach for anything denominated in dollars. Eventually, this too will pass and U.S. markets will take a heavy hit.

3. bullish bear says:
October 6, 2009 at 7:11 am
There comes a time in the affairs of man when he must take the bull by the tail and face the situation. i hope you are not one of them today….. be ready to ride along the new bull market that will kick up as hard as it could! buy to win, no regrets~

Bleeding Shortseller replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 8:39 am


You sound as stupid as cramer. if u have nothing of value to contribute, go
darken some other site.
this site is about t/a not chanting stupid, empty mantras. the market moves up till
it collapses and vice versa/

u have nothing to offer, offer it elsewhere pls.

4. rocky_40 says:
October 6, 2009 at 7:27 am
Dollar weakness could be a technical game changer. In the last 2 weeks, we were seeing lower lows and lower highs on the SPX and the break of 1038 – 1040 level support level. With the low volume yesterday, I had doubts that it would penetrate the 1038-1040 resistance.

Today, in the premarket, SPX has broken through1038-1040 resistance level. It has mainly to do with dollar weakness. It will be interesting to see if it holds above that level at the end of the day.

The market is also not responding negatively to poor earnings from commodity stocks. Mosaic (MOS) announced very poor earnings yesterday. It has very little impact on the stock in after hours trading.

I think we will see a trading range next few weeks as compared to a steep rise or steep selloff

Shar replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:05 am


You are right – Dollar can be a powerful game changer – Strong and abrupt reversal in dollar can instantaneously topple many apple carts (investments that is).

5. nastrades says:
October 6, 2009 at 7:39 am
It’s all govt run game along with GS… they won’t let this go that easy…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw

Nancy Pelosi's Permanent Happy Face replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:37 am


It’s important that every American watch this movie.

6. LewDog says:
October 6, 2009 at 7:46 am
It’s the same game plan they have been using all along. Let the market drop before earnings, draw in the shorts, throw out a few last minute upgrades or rumors of positive results, raise the prices in the futures, and squeeze the shorts so the market goes even higher. There are no fundamentals behind it. This entire strategy was designed to get the market through quarter 3 of this year because once quarter 4 hits, year to year earnings will not seem so bad anymore, and the market will hold its level. All subsequent quarters will follow suit. I don’t see anything causing a major leg down except for some sort of unveiling of corruption regarding the Fed, Banks, and stock manipulation. Whatever happened to that Bloomberg case anyway? No one seems to talk about it anymore.

Reminds me of how the pigs in Animal Farm led the other animals along from hating and not trusting humans to trusting them and following them once more. “Four Feet Good! Goldman Sachs Better!”

Bleeding Shortseller replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 8:47 am


I feel that if live video was outted of goldman delivering bags of cash to bernanke’s
wife at midnight the market would still rally on the innovation of corruption.

The smart saudi and chinese money is getting out, there is no volume on up moves,
smart money is metals bound. Just remember back to 08 and the daily rallies on weak
dollar and upward oil prices. . . how was that resolved?
Smart money is selling things american, currency, bonds & stocks. It wants oil and gold
before the collapse of the naked empire.

If u are bearish, don’t short, get gold or silver. Aggressive? Low quality miners or
shale gas producers. Put your cash into something bernanke can’t just issue more of.

7. Shar says:
October 6, 2009 at 8:40 am
Looks like a bull trap is being set up – with all these upgrades just before earning season. I will be very cautious here and watch from sideline for few days.

8. Bleeding Shortseller says:
October 6, 2009 at 9:00 am
I refuse to play any stox from the short side.

If the dollar implodes as everyone expects it to. . . my shorts will pay off in bales of worthless
dollars. If i’m wrong, goldman bonuses benefit.
PM’s and energy based outside the USelessA are the ticket. My aussie goldmines benefit
from the underlying commod and the aussie dollar being up 10% on the month.
Shorting this market in any means is just feeding the bonus structure of the thieves that created
this kaos.

My buys: AGT apollo gold at .405 last week, now .55
PZG
NG
SA the best unhedged gold and silver play on earth Seabridge Gold
KOG kodiak oil and gas now 2.29 i bought at 1.23 and now projected to $8

America is jammed. Debt is the killer. Expect them to inflate and print dollars till we run out of
trees. Oil to 225 gold to 5K is probable. Pension liabilities and demographics are not in fav
of stocks doing well.
Good luck all. Have learned a lot here. Learned not to short when everyone here is looking
for selling opps.

Woo is amazing predictor. He should start looking at retrac’ts and trends in PM’s and gold bug
indexes.
Gold is in a bull market, no doubt in least. Trading bear market rallies and falls is a sure way to lose money and hair. go for the bull trends and higher prices probablity.

9. TickerBandit says:
October 6, 2009 at 9:06 am
And how can anyone be certain that the trap which has been laid isn’t a bear trap? Certainly alot of folks here think that bulls are sheep, but from what I can tell, for 6 grueling months the those “sheared” have been bears. Not to mention the squandering of the best bull market they may ever live to see.

Shar replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:19 am


Thats right – bears have been sheared, they are wounded, they are licking their wounds, they are trying to regain strenght…and some are now turning into bullish bears.
The main issue is that there is too much of liquidity in these times of contraction/recession. Bulls and bullish-bears are being enticed into equity and commodity market and the upgardes are just a step in that direction. However, this earning season is said to be looking for and rewarding revenue growth (over cost-cutting based profits). Will the excess liquidity dry up before reality strikes or will the balacing forces (bears) gain measurable strength?

TickerBandit replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:36 am


Guys,

There is only one way a bear market begins. THE BULLS have got to decide that THEY are selling. Short Sellers are a minority of the participants. They aren’t nearly as influential as they are given credit for here. It’s a delusion that ShortSellers are smarter and less “sheep-like”. Makes the ShortSeller feel better thinking that but its a delusion all the same.

It’s a bull market UNTIL its a bear market. Just keep that in mind

10. bullish bear says:
October 6, 2009 at 9:08 am
implied vols falling back quick, dollar back to its downward trend, emerging mkt equities rallying, cramer bearish…what more could you ask for. be long….spx bounced off nicely on a key trend, as it should, it will head back to test the previous high and attempt on 1090~1120 range by mid-Oct.

11. bullish bear says:
October 6, 2009 at 9:09 am
this is a classic “climbing the wall of worry”

Bleeding Shortseller replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:22 am


I never wish ill on anyone. BBear might be the first to change that pattern.

if u have nothing to add, just STFU and go back to yahoo groups.

we are here to make money and not to repeat idiotic axioms.

12. BEAr says:
October 6, 2009 at 9:40 am
this makes me sick.

nastrades replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 9:56 am


F this market

13. bullish bear says:
October 6, 2009 at 9:41 am
watch 105.60 on SPY….if that breaks, all hell will break lose, to the upside!

14. ju*****real says:
October 6, 2009 at 9:49 am
Just 5000 sco at $16.20 for a bounce…..

15. Fritz says:
October 6, 2009 at 9:52 am
Last week I cautioned every shorts here not to be too bearish before DOW 9415 is broken solidly. Hopefully some of you considered that and saved yourself a lot of grief.

July 6 to July 10 – excited shorts ignored DOW 8100 right beneath and got killed real good
September 30 to October 2 – excited shorts ignored DOW 9415 right beneath are in pain right now if they didn’t hedge

gjg1963 replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:00 am


Wish I listened to you Fritz. Do you see us extending another 1800 DOW pts like we have since July.

Fritz replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:05 am


No, you don’t have to wait too long, but you want to get the price right. That’s why when I shorted BAC last week I hedged it with calls. My put orders for JPM has not yet been filled because I want to see a back test of $45, or a failure to capture $43 on two daily candles. My rule has been if it doesn’t fill at my price, I’m walking away from it.

DOW 10150 is still possible by October opex, just so you know.

oct replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:17 am


For those that are new traders ( novices) looking for some guidance and do not want to sift through all of this site, pay attention to Zee’s Frits’s and Morriss’ comments. I ve been following them for some time and they are the most accurate on market calls and timing. I hope they stick arround

Valerie replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:23 am


look too at the blue chip bulldog blogsite.
cheers.

16. bullish bear says:
October 6, 2009 at 9:59 am
mkt price action pretty much telling us that 3Q earnings will be strong….with GS coming out with a strong call yesterday, sidelined monies feeling more comfortable getting into the mkt. expect a re-test of the previous high.

Professor Cyan Lite (Oct SPY Iron Condor 101-109) replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:33 am


Agreed. I’m buying extra call protection in case we go higher to 1080′ish.

17. Chacro says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:01 am
Lots of emotion on the board today. I agree that we are stuck in a trading range. We need to tank hard to confirm P3 and I just don’t see it happening. I will remain patient. I might take a short here as Idan recommends. 1057 is the gap fill.

Chacro replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:13 am


TZA @ 12.08. Good luck to me!

Cottonman57 replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:19 am


If today’s action holds up, won’t that pretty much negate the P3 argument?

Idan replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 5:51 am


yes it will.

Chacro replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:37 am


Really only new highs would. But I think most people have given up on that idea. Every selloff is met with dollar weakness and strong buying.

18. Shar says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:02 am
Fritz,

Any revision to your short club list?

Fritz replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:12 am


Yes,

XOM managed to get itself off the list (darn)
JPM is still on it
BAC is still on it provided that it closes below $17.00
HD is close to getting itself off the list today
V is accepted and confirmed

Note: Although I welcomed them to my club last week, I was waiting for (failed) back tests before shorting them since we have not arrived at the “day of reckoning” yet (not too far away, but enough days to kill all the bears).

19. Cottonman57 says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:04 am
Morris et al,

Are you looking to add to your SCO position at this level?

Anitang replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:13 am


I was too tied up with another trade (shorting NG via HND.TO), missed out the good entry point on SCO. Will add more @16.00 or better. GL.

Anitang replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:23 am


Bought more SCO @$15.98. GL.

morris replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:21 am


I am looking to add another 1000 shares soon. I will post whatever I do.

Cottonman57 replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:22 am


Thanks guys!

20. Jon says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:09 am
Still holding my UCO with tight stops

Anitang replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:20 am


Hi Jon,

Wow! You are still holding.

What is your target price for UCO?

Jon replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:41 am


I had it set at 11.78 which did not fill. I am greedy but I think this will hit 12:00 by friday..I have a 20c trailing stop on it now

Anitang replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:47 am


I have $11.7-$11.90 target price for UCO. Good luck to you!

Jon replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:40 am


I removed my sell order of 11.78 for now. GL with your trade.

I am just astonished to see the rush to buy stocks after a small correction last week.

morris replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:21 am


Great play on this trade; your patience paid off!

21. Mark says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:12 am
Squeeeeeeezzzzz!!!!

uszly replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:36 am


“Squeeeeeeezzzzz!!!!”

Yup, same old crap.
This blog and many other blogs, work to get you short with their pretty charts.
Then bam! Mrkt screeches to new highs.

But do not worry because next week you will hear,
is when the mrkt will actually start its crash down.

22. kenjisan says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:21 am
stocktock has become a SCO/UCO trading place

I jumped in on the wagon, I went SCO at $16.00.

morris replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:29 am


We have had some success with these trades so we should keep playing it until it stops working.

Jon replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:39 am


Morris had made some great calls with UCO/SCO trades..100% success rate so far.

GLTA

23. Doug says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:24 am
I enjoy this site. I mostly trade oil, uco/sco. I only want to say that Bleeding Shortseller’s abusive comments should not be tolerated. Who is the moderator? Go back to bed and get upon the the right side, or go for a walk.

kenjisan replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:30 am


I agree no one should give “abusive comments” whatever side they’re on.

That said, I think the bearishness and oil prices are somewhat correlated.
When market falls, dollar (usually) rallies, making oil prices fall too. Not exactly a clear correlation since oil is oil… moves with oil news.

24. morris says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:25 am
1000 SCO @ 15.95 (so I now have 2000 shares at an average of 16.20)

ju*****real replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:42 am


Bot 5000 SCO this AM at $16.20 good luck to all

morris replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:00 am


Wow, that’s a big position! I don’t feel as confident about the trade so I am going with a smaller position. Best of luck (to both of us)!

25. Professor Cyan Lite (Oct SPY Iron Condor 101-109) says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:31 am
Folks, if you are shorting then you are working against the policy of the biggest government and biggest financial institution in the known universe. A weaker dollar means higher equities (since our exports will increase), and if you’re fighting that trend by shorting I would highly highly recommend you change your course of action or at the very least keep very tight stops and hedge your positions through the use of call options.

Fritz replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 10:41 am


When the government decides to pop the bubble, they will pop it. You never know when they’ll pop it, so even if you’re long you want to hedge your positions too.

On October 19 1987, stop-loss orders were having trouble getting filled because prices fell too quickly. I know that there are circuit breakers (trading curbs) in place since then, but do not overlook the possibility of a short-selling ban. Banning short-selling will create a danger in the event of a severe one-day decline in that there will be no incentives for the short-sellers to cover their shorts. This is known as “no bids”. What does this do to stock prices essentially? No bids = $0.00 Stop-loss and calls on the short side, and puts only on the long side as hedges.

Professor Cyan Lite (Oct SPY Iron Condor 101-109) replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:39 am


Actually, all Direct Market Participants (e.g., “market makers”) are now required to ALWAYS show a bid and ask, except for the opening bid (NYSE has a 90% requirement for their lead market makers).

There are also rules in which market makers are required to work within a specified quote width, so cases where there is no bid simply will never happen. With options, you should never see more than a 5-10 cent quote width for actively traded options (SPY, IWM, etc.). There may be cases where there is no bid for non-round lot orders (trying to buy 39 shares of some penny stock), but with the advent of ETFs and electronic arbitrage it is simply near impossible to find the market with no bid.

Also, market makers are not affected by short sell bans, in fact they are only ones who can naked short sell with no restrictions.

26. BEAr says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:33 am
sell my SSO

27. Bear Photographer says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:37 am
I think the important window to gaze at today is GS. It made todays move yesterday and has made a new 52w high this am. I would expect most shorted GS at a potential double top of 188 and just got their ass handed to em. GS just hit a good area of res and it wouldn’t surprise me if it turned it into sup. There is something so wrong about this stock but play it for what it is I guess. The BB are tight on the daily and it’s slowly moving into oversold territory. My thoughts are still GS is going to take a big hit to the downside soon! RIFIN also hit some good res. Take care FAZ holders…..

28. mind the gap says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:42 am
I sold my tck.b.to calls for a 12% gain overnight. I’m holding some Kinross gold calls which I’ll continue to hold. I’ll be patient for now and see if 1057 will act as resistance. Earnings season will be the key and if it goes over well we may actually have a decent October this time around.

29. Cottonman57 says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:45 am
Glad I bought 2K SLV yesterday. It’s the only thing that’s performing well today. Nothing else is participating in this rally (at least for me).

30. BEAr says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:54 am
bought 1000 SCO

31. ju*****real says:
October 6, 2009 at 10:58 am
Fritz,
Is BAC out of your short list ? and if still on, are you doing puts or actually shorting the stock itself?

Fritz replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:05 am


I shorted it, with calls as hedge. As soon as it gets off the list, I will close my short first before closing my calls (and getting out with a small profit). BAC reports Q3 earnings before market opens on October 16 (opex), and if I see a huge run-up prior to that, I’ll short it once more.

32. nastrades says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:06 am
What’s the reason for market going up this high today?

Shar replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:07 am


Anticipation of higher earnings!

chris replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:08 am


australia cutting their interest rate?

Bleeding Shortseller replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:33 am


That idiot Pisani repeated that 4 times???
RBA increased rates by .25% last nite.

even if they did cut, what reason is that for a return to 1660 SPY’s?

Chacro replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:11 am


People are buying equities and *****s like me are covering their shorts.

nastrades replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:13 am


lol “Chacro” I am with you…

nastrades replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:21 am


Why is Dollar’s loss is stocks’ gain ? isn’t that bad for America?

Professor Cyan Lite (Oct SPY Iron Condor 101-109) replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:51 am


Good for our multinational companies because they can export more. A weaker dollar for us means our goods that people buy from us is cheaper. But the stuff we import (oil especially) is more expensive.

33. Chacro says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:06 am
Gap was filled. but it looks like we’re breaking out. 1 point away from stopping out.

Chacro replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:09 am


Stopped out. See you at new highs!

34. nastrades says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:16 am
I am day dreaming for market to give half back for the today high

35. 3min says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:16 am
Now I’m feeling piggish. Got sell something.

nastrades replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:20 am


i went short 100% f it

3min replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:24 am


when? Now? Too soon.

nastrades replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:27 am


I shorted 50 right after open which was a big mistake…

Bidu 400 avg 93
UYM 2200 avg 27.50
GG 1560 avg 42.56

So for not looking good… I have never thought about “Dollar’s loss is stocks’ gain” this much

nastrades replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:31 am


*GG avg 41.56

36. Richard (Permabear) says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:17 am
————- COF —————– added to my short at $36.42 and covered whole position at $36.47. market has too short of memory for me. do we forget the unemployment numbers and the shrinking work force due to balooning welfare payments? guess so.

also covered for profit : BRKL MTH MOV PBI

remaining positions.

long HAU.TO HND.TO
short FUN UAUA CHDN DRE F HAS SHLD from the hit of 1080

trading light as we set up our business in the home.

good luck everyone!

37. morris says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:19 am
Weren’t most of the EW guys calling P3 last week? Ouch!

Shar replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:34 am


Calling……..but not confirming

Fritz replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:34 am


Calling P3 before DOW 9415 was breached was not a wise move. I was kicking myself for not having a buy order set for DOW 9440 before heading off to a meeting last Friday, and missed out on this quick push upwards.

DOW 9650 was breached today, so all bears beware.

Anjali replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:08 pm


Fritz – can you outline the levels you are looking at now ?

Earlier you had mentioned if the 9550 level was breached the bullish case would be dead … so a) what made you want to buy @ 9450 … b) What are you thinking for 9650 …. ?

Fritz replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:31 pm


The bullish case would be dead for October 2nd high, not dead entirely. I apologize for not making that explicitly clear.

There is a possibility of a high on October opex since 9650 was breached today, and if that is confirmed tomorrow, you’re looking at 99% bears turning bullish towards October opex.

DOW 9415 – 9430 is the band where 38.2% retracement of the move lower (October 2007 to March 2009) is at, and it was breached good, so it is a strong support (one of the strongest ones out there). The fact that last Friday morning’s sell-off registered a -220 point divergence from expected DOW level for that day, coupled with strong support at 9415, I knew it would result in a strong bounce. (Plus shorts got excited again and thought bad fundamentals brought down the market, bad sign!)

The market laready has an idea what it wants to do before news events, so one cannot rely too much on fundamental analysis. I am not discounting the fundamentals, but the time to re-connect it with market price movement has not yet arrived.

DOW levels:
10000, 9900, 9850, 9800, 9650, 9600, 9475, 9415

October opex closing DOW level will determine the magnitude of the upcoming drop, and the two drops in 2010.

best20nclub replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:36 am


What exactly does P3 mean…brand new to EW!

38. bullish bear says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:21 am
sell sides of the world has to protect their 09 bonus and the buy side needs to keep their performance up into yr-end to do the same. Q4 is a period when all interests align, the last thing they want is their stock options to be in ruins….research will be long biased and brokers will continue to talk mkt up and buy side will continue to window dress and bid up their holdings. this mkt will go up, to the least, with a very modest projection, of 10,500 on the dow….

39. Richard (Permabear) says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:27 am
—————- NYT ——————- way above max pain and in retardo land. covered my SHLD and took out short NYT at $8.32

40. ju*****real says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:31 am
how come major banks (GS,JPM,C,) are not participating in the run up? are the bank stocks exhausted or the upgrades were there as an exit for the bigger inverstors?TIA

Idan replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 11:34 am


they are overbought, but they are participating..

41. Bear Photographer says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:33 am
Important signal starting with GS right now….couldn’t hold it’s break of res..

42. Bear Photographer says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:34 am
EUR/JPY!!!!!

43. Richard (Permabear) says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:36 am
===== WEAK DOLLAR ==== it is near its lower BB and following UUP says it is oversold. only a portion of the market benefits from a weak dollar. most of the companies, as america is a net importer, suffer from a weak dollar. not sure why NYT which buys news print with USD$ and SHLD which imports 95% of thier goods would rally bcs of a weak dollar alone.

the USD$ is bottoming anywho and we should expect it to arrest its fall soon. look at UUP. it is sitting right on the lower BB for the daily. this says market has topped out if you are trading a direct correlation.

Anjali replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:01 pm


UUP 22.60 is strong support … if it breaks … look out below .. .with the ultimate support at 22 …

44. Anitang says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:41 am
Stopped out HND.TO @4.58 (bought @4.68 yesterday). The bulls of natural gas never give up, I guess they will break the broken trend line eventually.

45. flatron says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:44 am
Thanks all you bears!!!
$$$$

46. blackhawk says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:49 am
Gap still not filled on UCO.

blackhawk replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:24 pm


adding to UCO @11.55

Jon replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:42 pm


Welcome to the long oil trade. what gap are you talking about?

blackhawk replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:51 pm


Sept. 18–went long yesterday on 200 bounce, got stopped yesterday afternoon for very good profits (10,000), added some more this morning (2,000) for scalp. Adding more on retraces.

blackhawk replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 1:05 pm


stopped out, for now.

47. bullish bear says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:54 am
bullish trend turns when the bears leave the room not when they are in agony…..pain isn’t what kills, it’s when they get sick to their stomach, give up, telling themselves that they’ll never trade again and leave the room. right now, i see a lot of bears in agony….and that ain’t going to turn the trend. same goes for the bulls in a bear market. watch the reclaim of 1060 on spx.. we may close just above it today.

48. paul says:
October 6, 2009 at 11:57 am
woo are we still on our way to 1080

49. arcticfire says:
October 6, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Glad I dumped my FAZ last Thursday. I expected a bounce Mon/Tuesday but not this big of one. Snapped right out of my short term bearish channel.

I’ve decided that playing the spx moves and such is getting to convoluded with the dollar becoming a major player. So I’m just going to play the simple trade. Gold is breaking to new highs , panic over inflation should begin soon and that should add fuel to the commodity fire.

So I’m picking up some gold stocks. Entered AGT @ .513 today.

Professor Cyan Lite (Oct SPY Iron Condor 101-109) replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:25 pm


I wonder where that guy is who put $55k on FAZ @ $22.80 yesterday. I sincerely hope he hedged his bets because he’d be down about 10% now.

ju*****real replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 12:34 pm


got out yesterday at the close with a $1 loss…. I tell you that hurt

Professor Cyan Lite (Oct SPY Iron Condor 101-109) replied:
October 6th, 2009 at 1:22 pm


$1 per share loss?

50. Jeff Graubart says:
October 6, 2009 at 12:28 pm
I expected flatlining this week and turned my near the money hedges into cash last Friday. Bad mistake, Now my out of the money hedges are near the money so I will actually make money if the market continues to rise. Based on my luck, the market has topped out. At least the bleeding has been stopped, but it was a serious loss of blood.


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