www_thefreelibrary_com: leading soft data

Colin Cieszynski, CMC Markets


Rebecca Wilder (News N Economics) summarized the global economic picture as follows: “The signs of hope remain mostly in the soft data - US and China Purchasing Managers surveys posting consecutive monthly growth - while the hard data - export growth, inflation, and unemployment - continue to deteriorate. Going forward, the story that ‘economies are declining less quickly’ is gaining some momentum. And for some, a turning point may be on the horizon.”

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/05/10/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-may-4-%E2%80%93-10-2009/

Browse Colin Cieszynski, CMC Markets

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Markets+soar+on+US+payroll+news%3b+Canada+stages+a+big+breakout-a01611863200

Markets soar on US payroll news; Canada stages a big breakout

Colin Cieszynski, CMC Markets

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Markets soar on US payroll news; Canada stages a big breakout

Big rallies in commodity markets and continued gains in equities suggest that investor confidence has taken another big step forward today. In recent months, a number of indicators have suggested that the global may be stabilizing from the free fall of late 2008 and early 2009. The one area that had been stubbornly lagging Lagging

Strategy used by a firm to stall payments, normally in response to exchange rate projections. , however, had been the employment data. Today, however, the ADP (1) (Automatic Data Processing) Synonymous with data processing (DP), electronic data processing (EDP) and information processing.

(2) (Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Roseland, NJ, www.adp. private sector payrolls report suggested a decline of 491K in April, much less than the 742K drop that occurred in March and the 642K decline the street had expected. Because of this, some investors may be starting to anticipate that the big employment reports for the U.S. and Canada may not be as bad as had been previously feared.

Today, the Dow Industrials (US30 CFD CFD - Computational Fluid Dynamics ) have overcome resistance at 8,425 and following a successful retest re·test
tr.v. re·test·ed, re·test·ing, re·tests
To test again.

n.
A second or repeated test. as new support, have been trending toward a test of 8,500. A move through there could signal the start of a new upleg toward a test of the key 9,000 level. Similarly, the S&P 500 (SPX (Sequenced Packet EXchange) The transport layer protocol in the NetWare operating system. Similar to the TCP layer in TCP/IP, it ensures that the entire message arrives intact. SPX uses NetWare's IPX as its delivery mechanism. 500 CFD) has broken through 905 resistance and may trend toward a test of 950 resistance.


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Although equities have shown some strength, commodities have been even stronger, which suggests that concerns over U.S. bank stress test results may still be holding back shares a bit. Copper has jumped 4.8% today and has been taking a run at $2.20/lb resistance suggesting the payroll report has improved sentiment toward global economic conditions. On top of this, a positive crude oil inventory report (0.6 million barrel increase versus street 2.5 million barrel increase) appears to have dramatically increased interest in energy commodities. Natural gas has jumped over 6.6% to trade near $3.85/mmbtu while U.S. crude oil has rallied 4.4% to trade over $56.00/bbl. Next resistance appears near $4.00/mmbtu for natural gas and $60.00/bbl for crude oil with the 200-day for crude near $66.50/bbl and potential support near the $55.00 and $53.00/bbl levels.

Precious metals Precious Metals

Valuable metals such as gold, iridium, palladium, platinum, and silver.

Notes:
Investing in precious metals can be done either by purchasing the physical asset, or by purchasing futures contracts for the particular metal. also continue to be well supported today with gold trading above $910/oz and silver breaking through $13.75/oz. This suggests that while fears over the global economy may be easing, concerns over U.S. banks and potential future inflation still appear to be lingering.

Rallying commodities, improved sentiment towards equities in general and positive economic data appear to have given Canadian markets a big boost today. The Ivey Purchasing Managers A Purchasing Manager is an employee within a company, business or other organization who is responsible at some level for buying or approving the acquisition of goods and services needed by the company. ’ Index came in at 53.7 for April which can be viewed as highly significant as came in well above the 50.0 line, suggesting that the Canadian economy may have become one of the first in the world to start expanding again and also well above the 40.8 the street had expected.

This combination appears to have sparked a new upleg for Canadian markets as the S&P/TSX Composite broke through both its 200-day moving average and 10,000, a key psychological level. Next resistance for the Composite appears in the 10,250 to 10,300 range. Similarly the S&P/TSX 60 (Toronto60 CFD) has broken through he key 600 level, completing a base that had been forming since October. While 600 may be rested as a new support level at some point, next resistance on trend appears near the 630 and 700 levels.

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