May the West Emerge From the Fog
May the West Emerge From the Fog
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
ALLA AND I JUST LAUNCHED A NEW FUNDRAISING CAMPAIGN TO PURCHASE DRONE DETECTORS
If supported, it may be vital to us
Druzhkivka – I am writing this article after spending considerable time on the eastern flank of Ukraine, focusing on Dobropillia and Bilozerske in the Pokrovsk district, and after traveling most of the primary and secondary logistics routes there and along the neighboring Huliaypole front.
With what they have at their disposal, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing extraordinary work; far beyond anything seen in previous years, even on tough fronts such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
All communication routes to the front lines are fully functional, and supplies are flowing quickly. Without going into detail about some of the innovations introduced by the Ukrainian Command, it is necessary to highlight this fact, since the Russian Armed Forces are doing everything possible to compromise those arteries, both road and rail.
The Huliaypole-Oleksandrivka/Pokrovske-Omelnyk-Novomykolaivka quadrilateral is holding, despite Russian raids. I arrived in Dmitrovka, Petropavlivka, and Mykolaivka when the rubble of farmhouses, cottages, and businesses was still smoking. The Russians are striking relentlessly and indiscriminately with drone attacks using high-explosive and incendiary weapons combined with other missiles. Despite this, the countermeasures taken by the Ukrainian army to keep men and equipment safe are thwarting the enemy’s plans.
The fog is so thick that it makes attacks with most FPV drones impossible, but it facilitates DPR ambushes. Thus, the occupation troops managed to cross a pontoon located between Yalta and Dachne near Novopavlivka at least twice, allowing heavy vehicles to pass through, which the Ukrainians were then only partially able to neutralize.
Abroad, the emphasis continues to be on recruitment, while – as we have continually emphasized, and as the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine reiterated yesterday – the issue is not men but ammunition. By recruiting approximately 30,000 new soldiers each month, Ukraine is not only managing losses but also increasing its military personnel, which, however, lacks the weapons and equipment to defend a 1,200-kilometer-long front. To address this chronic shortage of artillery, counter-battery weapons, radar, and traditional reconnaissance systems, Ukraine is using drones. These drones are excellent and undoubtedly better than the Chinese ones available to the Russian Federation, but they are ineffective in weather conditions like those we’ve been experiencing at the front for over a week. Fully aware of these shortages, the Russians managed to breach a section of Ukrainian defenses, allowing enough men and equipment to pass through that it was initially impossible to determine exactly. The breach was quickly closed by the assault infantry of the 59th Yakiv Handzyuk Brigade, which eliminated about fifteen occupants and captured two prisoners. However, Ukraine’s partners were also aware of this serious flaw, having ignored President Zelensky’s requests.
After repeatedly visiting various brigades near the front line, Zelensky warned them and provided an accurate picture of Ukraine’s needs, but did not achieve any concrete results. On Sunday alone, the Russians attempted to break through 176 times along the entire front line, focusing most of those attacks on Pokrovsk and Huliaypole. Although I have information that offers a very different view than what much of the Western press suggests, I prefer to be cautious and wait for some very positive Ukrainian results in the Pokrovsk sector to be made public in the coming hours. Regarding Huliaypole, where the occupation forces were also guilty of further war crimes with the summary execution of two Ukrainian soldiers, I can confirm that the Russian advance was halted and even pushed back in the two former urban settlements of Zelenyj Hai and Chervone, which were retaken by the Trident Armed Forces.
In the Donbas areas where I’m writing from, the sun sets around four in the afternoon, and temperatures are near freezing. The freezing fog creates favorable conditions for the Russians to attack, but not for the Ukrainians, who are defending themselves without the necessary means.
From afar, it’s increasingly evident how detached the West is from the Ukrainian situation. The caution and restraint we, who have been living through the war on the ground for years, maintain, give way to hasty judgments made without regard for the complexity by those who have never been here. Certain ‘analyses’ based on ‘OSINT data’ – extremely risky during a time of information war – end up swaying government decisions and public opinion, suggesting that a Russian victory is inevitable and that the Kremlin’s efforts to shape and promote support for Ukraine are pointless.
Enticing and even convenient, this narrative ultimately contributes to Western disengagement, leading to troubling outcomes on the ground.
Through our crowdfunding campaign, we aim to purchase and install drone detection devices on each of our vehicles to protect against drone attacks in hot zones. Anti-drone «РЕБ» devices have proven effective against traditional wireless drones, but are completely ineffective against those connected via fiber-optic cables. We are launching this new campaign to ensure that none of those war machines will hit us when we approach the frontlines where we write our articles. Your support will not only protect us but also the civilians and defenders within the device’s range.
我们的目标是，通过我们的众筹活动，可以在每辆车上购买和安装无人机探测设备，以防止在前线热点地区遭受无人机袭击。反无人机“РЕБ”设备对传统无线无人机效果良好，但对通过光纤连接的无人机完全无效。我们发起这场新募捐，希望确保在我们接近前线写作时，这些设备都不会击中我们。您的支持不仅能保护我们，也能保护有效范围内的平民和乌克兰战士。
帮我们购买无人机探测器
在过去的三年里，作为自由撰稿人，我们一直在乌克兰战争的所有前线进行报道，自从大规模…
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愿西方走出迷雾
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
乌克兰现场报道
德鲁日基夫卡（Druzhkivka）——在写这篇文章前，我在乌克兰东翼逗留了很长时间，特别是波克罗夫斯克地区的多布罗彼利亚和比洛泽尔斯克，并在那里和邻近的胡利亚伊波尔前线大部分的主要和次要后勤路线活动。
乌克兰武装力量尽其所能，正在取得非凡的成就；远远超出以往任何年份，即使是在巴赫穆特和阿夫迪夫卡这样艰难的战线上也不例外。
所有通往前线的交通线路都完全畅通，物资补给也在迅速输送。虽然不便过多细述乌克兰指挥部引入的一些创新措施，但必须强调这一点，因为俄军正竭尽全力破坏这些动脉般的公路和铁道。
尽管遭受俄军袭击，胡莱亚波尔-奥列克桑德里夫卡/波克罗夫斯克-奥梅尼克-新米克拉伊夫卡四边形地区仍然坚守。我在抵达德米特罗夫卡、彼得罗帕夫利夫卡和米克拉伊夫卡时，农舍、度假屋和商铺的废墟仍在散发着烟雾。俄军不断无差别地进行无人机攻击，使用高爆弹、燃烧弹，以及其他导弹进行无休止的袭击。尽管如此，乌克兰军队采取的反制措施，有效保障了人员和装备的安全，成功挫败了敌人的阴谋。
（图：我在帕夫利夫卡的傍晚时分——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
浓雾弥漫，令大多数FPV无人机的攻击变得不可能，但却为顿巴斯的伏击提供了便利。因此，占领军设法在诺沃帕夫利夫卡附近的雅尔塔和达其内之间的浮桥上，至少通过了两次，并有重型车辆通过，而乌克兰方面对此只能做到部分抵御。
在国外，焦点持续放在“招聘”上，而正如我们不断强调的，以及乌克兰总统办公室的负责人昨天重申的，问题不在于兵力，而在于弹药。乌克兰每月招募约3万新兵，不仅在应对损失，同时还在增加兵力。然而，但他们缺乏必要的武器和装备，无法有效捍卫长达1200公里的前线。为了解决炮兵、反炮兵武器、雷达和传统侦察系统的长期短缺，乌克兰开始使用无人机。这些无人机性能优异，毫无疑问优于俄罗斯能够获得的中国无人机，但在我们在前线已持续一周的恶劣天气条件下，它们无法发挥作用。充分意识到这些短板后，俄军成功突破了乌克兰防线的一部分，使得大量人员和装备通过，最初难以准确判定其具体位置。很快第59雅基夫·汉德朱克突击旅的步兵部队封堵了这一漏洞，歼灭了大约十五名敌人，并俘获两名战俘。然而，乌克兰的盟友也意识到了这个严重的漏洞，但却未曾理会泽连斯基总统的请求。
（图：地图上标示的的是我目前位置，同时表明尽管有FPV无人机的影响，道路仍可通行，但非常困难，尤其是在一些俄军部队已南迁至查西夫雅尔以南之后——由谷歌地图绘制。）
在多次访问前线附近各旅后，泽连斯基已向盟友们发出警告，详细说明了乌克兰的需求，但未能取得任何实质性的成果。仅在周日一天，俄军就沿整个前线进行了167次突破尝试，重点攻击集中在波克罗夫斯克和胡莱亚波尔地区。虽然我掌握的信息与西方大部分媒体所报道的截然不同，但我还是倾向于保持谨慎，等待未来几小时内官方披露一些乌克兰在波克罗夫斯克地区非常积极的成果。关于胡莱亚波尔，俄军还涉嫌更多的战争罪行，包括处决了两名乌克兰士兵，我可以确认，俄军的推进已被遏制住，甚至在曾经被占领的泽列尼·盖伊和切尔沃涅两个城镇，乌克兰的三叉戟武装部队已将俄军击退并重新夺回城镇。
我目前所在的顿巴斯地区，日落时间大约在下午四点，气温接近零下。冻结的雾气为俄军发动攻击营造了有利条件，但对乌军来说却不利，因为他们在没有必要装备的情况下在进行防御。
从远处来看，越来越明显的是，西方与乌克兰局势的脱节。我们这些多年来在前线亲身经历战火、保持谨慎和克制的人们，不得不让位于那些从未到过这里，忽视了局势的复杂性，却草率判断的人。一些基于“开源情报（OSINT）”数据为基础的“分析”——在信息战时期极具风险——最终左右了政府决策和舆论，暗示俄罗斯胜利已成定局，克里姆林宫试图塑造和推动对乌克兰的支持毫无意义。
这种引人入胜甚至令人感到便捷的叙事，最终助长了西方与乌克兰的疏离，导致前线局势变得更加令人担忧。
（图片：我在乌克兰顿涅茨克州 写这篇文章前的瞬间——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
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