Moscow Might Open a New Front of the War During the Moldovan
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Dnistrivka — The Russian Federation is losing significant amounts of personnel, weapons, and money on all fronts except two: the media, where it continues to invest with excellent results (as evidenced by the Italian news media), and the military on the Kherson flank, where, after forcing residents of the Korabel neighborhood to abandon their homes through drone and artillery bombardments, it has halted its advance and shelved the idea of landing there for now.
A very simple reason links both fronts: since Moscow is able to capitalize on its efforts, which are still substantial but far smaller than those it uses to fuel its war machine — aimed at polluting the rest of the world’s information — by swaying public opinion in its favor, events like Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Moldova are a veritable springboard for Russian troops to deploy where they have failed militarily.
By controlling that small country — fragmented, vulnerable, and unprotected by NATO or the EU — the Russian Federation could more easily send in additional military forces beyond those already there, invading Ukrainian Bessarabia (the areas I’m writing from and the Odesa region), the oblast’ of Mykolaiv, and then rejoining those now bogged down in Kherson.
That Moldova is the missing link in the Russian plan to choke Ukraine from the south was already clear in 2022, as Alexander Lukashenko himself hintedat this goal during a briefing with his general staff held in the early hours of the so-called ‘special military operation.’ On the map he showed to the cameras, the Belarusian leader pointed directly at Moldova, referencing a planned attack to divide Ukraine into four parts and cut off its access to the sea, reconnecting the troops invading its southern region with the separatist forces of Pridnestrovie (known as Transnistria), who have controlled the western flank of the former Soviet Republic of Moldova for 35 years.
According to Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean’s statement to the Financial Times last June, Moscow plans to do this by deploying up to 10,000 of its own soldiers in the pro-Russian enclave, supporting the 1,500 already there as “peacekeepers” through a compliant Moldovan government resulting from next Sunday’s vote.
This force would be about a third of the current Moldovan army, sitting on the largest powder keg from the Soviet era: the Cobasna Santabarbara.
«Today I declare to you in all seriousness that our sovereignty, independence, integrity, and European future are under threat,» warned Moldovan President Maia Sandu, denouncing how Russia is spending hundreds of millions of euros to buy hundreds of thousands of votes ahead of the September 28 elections.
This is a very high risk, potentially capable of overturning the bitter military situation in which Moscow has become stuck, managing to seize, after three years and one million human losses, just 1% more Ukrainian territory than it had already taken in the first months of 2022.
Last October, Moldovan authorities seized citizens returning from the Russian Federation with $1.2 million in cash, ultimately connecting it to vote-buying involving at least 130,000 voters. The fact that the referendum on EU membership — which Moscow aimed to prevent — ended with a narrow 0.7% margin in favor of the pro-European side should give cause for concern.
This is why President Sandu called on her fellow citizens to prevent the country from falling under Russian influence by voting for those who want a strong Moldova, independent of Moscow, with a transparent judicial system, and within the Euro-Atlantic orbit.
The Balti Municipal Prosecutor’s Office announced yesterday that, after conducting over 30 searches and arresting one person for cryptocurrency financing of a political party with ties to Russia, the National Anti-Corruption Center seized nearly €600,000 in cash. This is the 250th raid conducted as part of an investigation into a Moscow-backed plot to incite mass riots and destabilize the country ahead of Sunday’s election, which has led to 74 arrests so far.
Two months ago, Recean criticized Russian investments that make up 1% of Moldova’s GDP and large-scale online propaganda campaigns.
Crumbs, compared to what Moscow has spent over 43 months on missiles, armored vehicles, recruitment efforts abroad, and supporting regimes like North Korea and Iran, which back its war efforts. Cash in suitcases and lies on social media are easier ways to open a new front in the war at the polls.
莫斯科或将在摩尔多瓦选举期间开辟新的战线
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
来自乌克兰的现场报道
德涅斯特河沿岸地区 — 俄罗斯联邦正在各条战线上损失大量人员、武器和资金；例外的是两天战线：媒体，它继续在那里投资，并取得卓越成效，正如意大利新闻媒体所证明的那样；以及赫尔松侧翼的军队，在透过无人机和炮击迫使科拉贝尔附近的居民放弃家园后，俄军暂停了推进，并搁置了在那里登陆的想法。
一个非常简单的原因将这两条战线的胜利联系起来：由于莫斯科有能力通过影响公众舆论来达到目的，尽管这些能力仍然相当可观，但远小于其用于维持其战争机器的努力，像周日的摩尔多瓦议会选举这样的事件，是俄罗斯军队部署在军事上失败的地方的真正跳板。
通过控制那些四分五裂、脆弱且不受北约或欧盟的保护的小国，俄罗斯联邦可以更容易地在原有驻军之外派遣额外的军队到那里，入侵乌克兰的比萨拉比亚（包括我正在写作的和敖德萨地区）、尼古拉耶夫州，然后与现在陷入刻松的军队重新会合。
（图片来源：NDV - 图片版权：白俄罗斯政府）
摩尔多瓦是俄罗斯计划从南部扼杀乌克兰的缺失环节，这在2022年就已经很清楚了，正如亚历山大·卢卡申科本人在所谓的“特别军事行动”最初几个小时与他的总参谋部举行的简报会上暗示的那样。在他向镜头展示的地图上，这位白俄罗斯领导人直接指向摩尔多瓦，提到了将乌克兰分为四部分并切断其通往大海的通道的攻击计划，以期将入侵乌南部地区的部队与德涅斯特河沿岸（也称为外聂斯特里亚）的分裂势力重新连接起来，这些分裂势力控制了前摩尔多瓦苏维埃共和国西翼长达35年。
（图片说明：Alla在刻松报道，俄罗斯联邦摧毁了那里的民用基础设施--版权照片，摄影师：Giorgio Provinciali）
根据摩尔多瓦总理多林·雷切安在去年六月在《金融时报》发表的声明，莫斯科计划通过在亲俄飞地部署多达10,000名俄军，并通过下周日选举中产生的亲俄摩尔多瓦政府，支持1,500名已经部署在那里的“维和部队”。
这支部队数量是摩尔多瓦现有军队的三分之一，坐在苏联时代最大的火药桶上：圣巴巴拉军团。
摩尔多瓦总统马娅·桑杜警告说：“今天，我以极大的严肃性向你们宣布，我们的主权、独立、完整和欧洲未来正受到威胁。”她谴责俄罗斯如何花费数亿欧元来购买数十万张选票，以应对9月28日的选举。
这是一个非常高的风险，有可能扭转莫斯科陷入的苦涩军事局面，在经过三年和一百万人的损失后，仅设法夺取了比2022年头几个月多1%的乌克兰领土。
（图片说明：Alla在乌克兰比萨拉比亚附近报道，建造的壕沟旨在遏制俄罗斯入侵尝试 – 版权照片 Giorgio Provinciali）
去年10月，摩尔多瓦当局查获了从俄罗斯联邦返回的携带120万美元现金的公民，涉及购买至少13万选民选票的行为。莫斯科旨在阻止的欧盟成员国资格公投，以亲欧派0.7%的微弱优势获胜结束，令人担忧。
这就是为什么桑杜总统呼吁她的同胞们通过投票支持那些想要一个强大的摩尔多瓦、独立于莫斯科、拥有透明的司法系统并位于欧盟-大西洋轨道之内的候选人，来防止该国落入俄罗斯影响之下。
巴尔蒂市检察官办公室昨天宣布，在进行了30多次搜查并逮捕了一名为与俄罗斯有联系的政党提供加密货币融资的人后，国家反腐败中心查获了近60万欧元现金。这是针对莫斯科渗透阴谋调查的一部分进行的第250次突袭，该阴谋旨在周日选举前煽动大规模暴乱并破坏该国的稳定，迄今已经逮捕了74人。
两个月前，雷切安批评了占摩尔多瓦GDP 1%的俄罗斯投资以及大规模的俄罗斯在线宣传活动。
与莫斯科在导弹、装甲车、国外征兵工作以及支持朝鲜和伊朗等支持其战争努力的政权上花费的43个月相比，这些都是微不足道的。手提箱里的现金和社交媒体上的谎言是在投票站开辟战争新战线的更简单方法。
相比之下，莫斯科在导弹、装甲车、海外招募工作以及支持朝鲜和伊朗等支持其战争努力的政权方面花费了43个月。手提箱里的现金和在社交媒体上的谎言是在投票站开辟战争新战线的更简单方法。
（图片说明：Alla在乌克兰刻松报道 - 版权照片，摄影师：Giorgio Provinciali）
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