并非我一个人猜测

网上各种参考史料和解密文件的学者也都写过

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a620788.pdf

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/collection/134/korean-war-origins-1945-1950/4

https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=9515&context=etd

你是否把苏联想得太好了？