钱学森对1980年“一胎化”政策制定的关键贡献
中国“一胎化”政策的理论基础就是火箭专家宋健的《人口控制论》，所以很多人认为宋健是中国一胎化政策的设计者。其实不然，一胎化思想来自于当时的计委系统，当时由陈慕华秉承几位领导人的发言具体操办。而关键一步，就是宋健的工作进入陈慕华的视野、并被作为“科学依据”而采纳。而这个关键的一步，来自钱学森和经济学家许涤新的推荐。
见梁中堂《“一胎化”产生的时代背景研究（修改稿）》（代为分段）：
如果我们阅读一下1980年2月上旬钱学森和许涤新分别给陈慕华的信，以及陈慕华于该月月底的回复，就不难确信这样一个事实，即1980年2月以前，宋健以及宋健的研究还没有进入陈慕华的视野。1980年2月8日，十分欣赏宋健的钱学森给陈慕华写信说：
“陈慕华副总理：七机部二院副院长、我国自动化理论家宋健同志和其他几位同志把他们最近就我国人口所作预测和分析的结果寄我一份，并附信作了简要说明。我认为这是自然科学和技术科学进入社会科学领域，和社会科学工作者一道，共同解决国民经济问题的一个良好开端，应该支持。知道您领导这方面的工作，所以把全部材料转呈给您，供您参考。此致革命敬礼！钱学森1980年1月8日”。
许涤新致陈慕华副总理的信说：
“慕华副总理：宋健等四同志的关于我国人口百年发展预测和分析是我国自然科学工作者和社会科学工作者合作研究的可喜成果，对于我国制定人口政策和国民经济远景规划，有一定参考价值。我同钱学森同志一样，很重视这一预测和分析，也主张把全部材料呈送给您，以便您在考虑人口政策时，作为参考。此致敬礼！许涤新1980年2月10日”。
大约半个月之后，陈慕华复函说：
“钱学森、许涤新同志：你们送来的我国未来一百年人口发展趋势的资料很好，对制订我国人口政策很有参考价值，我已特报政治局。请你们代向宋健等同志致谢。陈慕华1980年2月25日”。
《宋健科学论文选集》，科学出版社1999年，第546页。
另外，Susan Greenhalgh“导弹科学，人口科学：中国一胎化政策的起源”（Missile Science, Population Science: The Origins of China’s One-Child Policy，The China Quarterly (2005), 182 : 253-276 Cambridge University Press）等文章有更详细的叙述：
Early on Song was singled out for praise and patronage by Qian Xuesen, the US-educated father of China’s space programme and top military science advisor to Mao and Premier Zhou Enlai.16 It was Qian who declared that it was Song, not he, who was the country’s leading control theory scientist. Qian showered the young Song with favoured opportunities for scientific advance. At Qian’s behest, Song was invited to head a new Control Theory Research Office in the Mathematics Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and chosen to co-author the revised edition of Qian’s two-volume Engineering Cybernetics, a bible for generations of Chinese defence scientists and engineers. Song’s abundant talent, technical accomplishments, and political patronage and savoir faire combined to propel him into the ranks of the topmost defence scientists and engineers. …
Building on personal ties forged in the defence science community, Song then began creating networks to deliver the proposal into the hands of the people who would matter. He created two chains of ties, one connecting him to top population policy makers, the other linking him to top political leaders.62 In the first, Song sent the group’s work to two of the nation’s top scientists, one natural and one social. Qian Xuesen (mentioned above) was one of the most influential natural scientists in the country, while Xu Dixin was one of China’s most eminent economists. Qian and Xu sent the materials on to Chen Muhua. Chen soon replied, writing that the projections were “very good” and “have great reference value” for policy-making, adding that she had “already prepared a special report for the Politburo.”63 In the second network, Song sent the materials to the secretary at the powerful National Defence Science Commission, who turned them over to Wang Zhen, vice-premier and member of the Politburo and Standing Committee of the Central Military Commission. Here Song seems to have been counting on his reputation as a leading missile expert, along with the prestige and political clout of defence scientists and policy-making bodies, to make his population policy the leading contender for adoption.
The strategy seems to have worked. In an interview, Song reported how Wang Zhen, upon receiving the research report, immediately picked up the phone and called to express his alarm.64 In his written reply, Wang endorsed the work as “extremely important” and suggested that it be made known to Chen Yun, second only to Deng in prestige and influence, and Hu Yaobang, secretary-general of the CCP.65 Many interviewees stressed that China’s top leaders were awestruck by the mathematics, shocked by the projections and convinced that a one-child policy was the only option. Song himself emphasized the fears those numbers created in the minds of China’s leaders. According to him, not only Wang Zhen but also Hu Qiaomu, Hu Yaobang and Hu Qili were shocked and persuaded by the report. Chen Muhua “decided on the one-child policy after reading the research report.”66 With only some exaggeration, another central actor maintained that “all the central leaders said the report was right.”67
下图就是宋健当时让领导人震惊的计算。
