耶鲁教授R。SHILLER谈房价，他曾成功预测了最近的股市房市泡沫

耶鲁教授R。SHILLER谈房价，他曾成功预测了最近的股市房市泡沫 (the stock market bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the late 2000s.

他认为,按房价与收入比，和房价与房租比，房价已趋合理，但房市经历了大泡沫破裂后，房价或会继续跌到合理价位以下，（over-shooting).

我觉得，其实房价有没触底，对许多以现金流为主的投资者并不重要。房价的涨跌对已拥有的投资房的现金流无影响。想要买房的，当然希望房价再降。但想在最低点进场也是不明智的。谁能真正预测最底点？总之，现在仍是买房的好时机。

http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shiller-housing-2012-1

BLODGET: And where are house prices relative to long-term historical trends? I've tracked at a lot of measures and it looks to me like we're finally starting to close in on fair value. But it's not as though we've crashed way below fair value.

SHILLER: It depends what you mean by fair value. If you take account of the very low interest rates, you might think that housing prices should be higher than historically. But then on the other hand, that model hasn't worked very well historically. That would be like the Fed model applied to housing. But it doesn't seem to fit. But I think the construction costs model says that housing should track the costs of construction. It doesn't depend on interest rates, doesn't depend on the economy. That's a model, I'm not saying it's the only model.

BLODGET: And what about price-to-income and price-to-rent?

SHILLER: Those things have come down a lot. I don't know exactly where the middle is but it's not like we're overpriced anymore. Now the question is whether we'll overshoot, which is a common thing that happens after bubble burst.

BLODGET: And you're an expert in bubbles and I've looked at some on your work going back several hundreds of years on housing. Have you ever seen a bubble where there wasn't a major overshoot?

SHILLER: Well, the problem is we've never had, in the United States, a bubble like this, of this magnitude before. That's the problem. That's the fundamental problem of economics. We'd like to be statisticians but in fact the world is always changing on us. So we end up having to use judgment. We're not very good at that.

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