在sun belt有些地方即使现在房价已经涨到高点，现金流还是不错，算了一下居然可以是正数。 例如以下四个随便挑的四个SFH都有正现金流，算上principal，cash on cash至少都有5%以上。如果假设每年房价升值4%，则总回报率可到20%以上。
| Offer |
$299,900 |
$429,000 |
$469,500 |
$385,000 |
| Asking price |
$299,900 |
$429,000 |
$469,500 |
$385,000 |
| Monthly Rent |
$1,883 |
$2,400 |
$2,495 |
$2,053 |
| Equity |
$74,975 |
$107,250 |
$117,375 |
$96,250 |
| Loan Amount |
$224,925 |
$321,750 |
$352,125 |
$288,750 |
| Loan Duration |
360 |
360 |
360 |
360 |
| Loan Interest % |
3.88% |
3.88% |
3.88% |
3.88% |
| Monthly Mortgage |
$1,058 |
$1,513 |
$1,656 |
$1,358 |
| 1st Month Principal Portion |
$331 |
$474 |
$519 |
$425 |
| 1st Month Interest Portion |
$726 |
$1,039 |
$1,137 |
$932 |
| Property Tax Rate |
1.0103% |
1.1600% |
1.1600% |
1.1600% |
| Monthly Property tax |
$253 |
$415 |
$454 |
$372 |
| Monthly Insurance |
$68 |
$68 |
$68 |
$68 |
| Monthly HOA |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
| Reserve |
$94 |
$120 |
$125 |
$103 |
| Management Fee |
$132 |
$168 |
$175 |
$144 |
| Monthly Total Expense |
$1,604 |
$2,284 |
$2,477 |
$2,045 |
| Free cash flow |
$279 |
$116 |
$18 |
$8 |
| Free cash flow + principal |
$610 |
$590 |
$536 |
$434 |
| Cash on cash wo principal |
4.46% |
1.30% |
0.18% |
0.10% |
| Cash on cash + principal |
9.76% |
6.60% |
5.48% |
5.41% |
| Home Price Appreciation |
4% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
| Total Annual Return |
25.76% |
22.60% |
21.48% |
21.41% |
| Cap Rate |
5.35% |
4.56% |
4.28% |
4.26% |
| Annual rent / offer price |
7.53% |
6.71% |
6.38% |
6.40% |
但是，但是，但是，它们现金流高是有它们的道理的。下图是Phoenix 从2000年到2021年房价图。在很短的时间里，单位房价曾从最高点的$190跌到过最低点的$80。这说明这里的风险非常高。因为这里有的是土地而且很容易申请到permit。房价从根本上是有供求关系决定的，一旦供不应求，房价就会飙升，建筑商就会涌入建新房；而一旦新房过剩，就会照成供大于求，房价就会迅速下降。
未来会发生什么，谁也不能预测。但是投资101，在一个高效的市场，各类投资的risk-adjusted-return都会完全一样。这个定理在这里也适用。在湾区和南加，基本没有土地，建筑商非常难找到大块土地建新房，所以房价相对稳定，风险也小很多，所以市场上基本很难找到有正现金流的房子。
