Fed Funds: Futures Implied Probabilities

This chart shows how markets are positioning for the Fed’s rate path ahead, based on CME Group futures data:

September 2025:
 80.3% probability of no change — target range remains at 5.25–5.50%.

December 2025:
 Shift toward a 4.75–5.00% range, but no clear majority.

March 2026:
 Most likely range drops to 4.00–4.25%.

September 2026:
 Expectations widen significantly — pricing spans 3.00–4.25%.

This is not a forecast — it's a snapshot of trader positioning via fed funds futures. The implied path points to gradual easing in 2026, not a rapid pivot.

With inflation cooling and growth slowing, rate cut expectations are evolving in real time.

Key catalysts:
CPI on August 13
Jackson Hole symposium (August 22–24)

Are market expectations realistic — or overly cautious?