【金融时报】IMF警告美国违约风险

IMF警告美国违约风险

国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告，如果美国政府不能迅速采取行动，上调其法定债务上限，那将对全球金融市场造成“严重冲击”，这一警告加大了针对美国国会和白宫的压力，要求它们在财政政策上尽快达成共识。

IMF在其有关美国经济政策的年度报告中指出，“不利的财政结局”是该国经济前景面临的主要危险之一。

“这些结局的形式可能是利率突然上调及/或主权评级遭到调降——如果达不成有关财政整顿的协议，或者债务上限没有得到及时上调，”IMF表示。

该机构补充称：“鉴于美国国债在世界金融市场的中心角色，这些风险还可能产生重大的全球冲击波。”

美国财政部表示，如果国会不上调目前为14.3万亿美元的债务上限，美国最早在8月2日就可能拿不出资金偿债，并可能发生违约。但国会中的共和党和民主党人以及白宫迄今未能打破围绕财政政策的政治僵局，各方在支出水平和税收问题上争执不下。共和党方面抵制上调债务上限，以争取出台力度更大的支出削减和财政改革，同时反对任何增税措施。

IMF发布有关美国的声明后，该机构代理总裁约翰•利普斯基(JohnLipsky)表示，他“有信心认为，各方都深知美国发生债务违约的种种潜在风险，并将避免那些危险。”

利普斯基补充说：“不言而喻，美国政府发生债务违约……将产生非常严重、大范围、戏剧性的冲击，而这正是为什么我们有信心认为这将得到避免。”

在各方就债务上限问题的争论升温之际，美国财长蒂姆•盖特纳(TimGeithner)致函一批共和党参议员，指出如果奥巴马政府只是把利息支付放在比联邦政府其它付款更优先的地位，是不足以带来避免违约的回旋余地的。

一些共和党人指控白宫在债务上限问题上采用“恐吓战术”，他们提出，即使在8月初不能达成协议，其影响在更大程度上也将像是政府部门的部分关闭，而不是真正的违约，因为财政部可酌情优先支付某些款项。

“这种‘划分优先顺序’的提议，是在提倡一种激进和极其不负责任的做法，背弃了美国历史上两党总统一贯坚持的兑现国家所有承诺的保证，”盖特纳表示。“这种做法不明智、不可行、风险高得不可接受，而且对美国人民不公平。除了及时立法上调债务上限外，别无他法，”盖特纳对参议院少数党领袖米奇•麦康奈尔(MitchMcConnell)等参议员们表示。

IMF在其报告中表示，在财政政策上达到恰当的平衡，是美国经济官员面对的主要挑战。该机构称，财政整顿需要推进，而失去财政可信度可能造成巨大破坏。IMF建议美国应从明年开始削减赤字，整体努力将包括支出削减和增税（通过取消特别激励和减免）两方面。

但在另一方面，IMF告诫称，不应寻求当即、大幅的支出节省，表示“幅度过大的初期财政调整，可能也会显著削弱国内需求”。IMF预期美国经济今年将增长2.5%，2012年和2013年将加速至2.7%。

除了财政政策外，IMF提到美国经济前景面临的其它风险包括：住房市场疲弱、可能发生的大宗商品价格冲击、信贷供应偏紧，以及欧洲主权债务麻烦。

 

英文对照

 

                                                               IMF warns US of debt ‘shock’

The International Monetary Fund haswarned of a “severe shock” to global financial markets if the US does notmove quickly to increase its borrowing authority, adding pressure on Congressand the White House to clinch a deal on fiscal policy.

In its annual report on US economicpolicy, the IMF cited “unfavourable fiscal outcomes” as one of the key dangersto the country’s economic outlook.

“These could take the form of a suddenincrease in interest rates and/or a sovereign downgrade if an agreement onconsolidation does not materialise or the debt ceiling is not raised soonenough,” the IMF said.

It added: “These risks would also havesignificant global repercussions, given the central role of US Treasury bondsin world financial markets.”

The US Treasury department has said thatif Congress does not raise the debt limit – currently at $14,300bn – the US would runout of cash to pay its obligations and could default as early as August 2. ButRepublicans and Democrats in Congress and the White House have so far beenunable to break the political impasse surrounding fiscal policy, as they sparover spending levels and taxation. Republicans have been resisting an increasein the debt ceiling to extract deeper spending cuts and fiscal reforms, whileopposing any tax increases.

After the IMF statement on the US was released, John Lipsky, acting managingdirector, said he was “confident that the participants are well aware of thepotential risks of a debt default in the US and will avoid those dangers”.

Mr Lipsky added: “It should beself-evident a debt default by the US government . . . would have veryserious, far-reaching, dramatic repercussions and that’s why we’re confidentthat it will be avoided.”

With the heat rising over the debtceiling, Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, sent a letter to a group ofRepublicans in the Senate arguing that there was no leeway for the Obamaadministration to prevent a default by simply prioritising interest paymentsover the federal government’s other payments.

Some Republicans have accused the WhiteHouse of “scare tactics” over the debt ceiling, suggesting that even if no dealis reached by early August, the impact would be more like a partial governmentshutdown than a true default because of the Treasury department’s discretion tomake certain payments ahead of others.

“This ‘prioritisation’ proposal advocatesa radical and deeply irresponsible departure from commitments by presidents ofboth parties, throughout American history, to honour all of the commitments thenation has made,” Mr Geithner said. “It is unwise, unworkable, unacceptablyrisky and unfair to the American people. There is no alternative to enactmentof a timely increase in the debt limit,” he told senators, including MitchMcConnell, the minority leader.

In its report, the IMF said striking theright balance on fiscal policy represented the main challenge facing USeconomic officials. The fund said fiscal consolidation needed to proceed andlosing fiscal credibility could be very damaging, and is recommending thatdeficit reduction should begin next year – with the overall effort to includeboth spending cuts and tax increases through the elimination of specialincentives and deductions.

But on the other hand, the IMF cautionedagainst deep and immediate savings, saying that “an excessively large upfrontfiscal adjustment could also significantly weaken domestic demand”. The IMF isexpecting the USeconomy to grow at a rate of 2.5 per cent this year, accelerating to 2.7 percent in 2012 and 2013.

Among the other risks to the outlookbesides fiscal policy, the IMF cited the weak housing market, the potential fora commodity price shock, tight credit supply and the European sovereign debtwoes.12