说真的,埃博拉病毒的传染性有多强?

来源: 2014-10-03 15:23:58 [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

首例Ebola病例出现在美国达拉斯后,这几天各大媒体相继科普相关知识,告诉大众不要惊恐。说真的,埃博拉病毒的传染性有多强?No, Seriously, How Contagious Is Ebola?

下面的那张图非常好,用R0一目了然地显示各种传染病的传染性。R0是个数学术语,指每一个病人平均传染的人数。Ebola跟丙肝一样,R0=2,传染性属低。如图示:一个红色的感染者,传染给两个人。而麻疹的传染性就比较高,一个病人平均传染的人数(R0)=18。

"R0": The reproduction number, or "R nought," is a mathematical term that tells you how contagious an infectious disease is. Specifically, it's the number of people who catch the disease from one sick person, on average, in an outbreak.*

Take, for example, measles. The virus is one of the most contagious diseases known to man. It's R0 sits around 18. That means each person with the measles spreads it to 18 people, on average, when nobody is vaccinated. (When everyone is vaccinated, the R0 drops to essentially zero for measles).
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No, Seriously, How Contagious Is Ebola?