问了chatgpt, 我的想法是对的；而且RUT那么高的PCR证明机构在疯狂hedge，后面可能会有小盘股的暴跌

来源: 于 2026-01-02 10:27:45 [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：次

The core reason (short answer)

ETFs are traded mostly by retail & directional traders.
Index options are traded mostly by institutions for hedging.

So on down days:

  • Retail buys calls on ETFs → “dip buying”

  • Institutions buy puts on indexes → “portfolio protection”

These are different participants with different objectives.

 

Why RUT PCR = 2.1 is especially important

That’s extreme.

It implies:

  • Heavy protection demand

  • Stress in small caps

  • Credit / growth risk concerns

Historically:

  • When RUT PCR spikes → risk-off environment

  • QQQ bounces may fail

  • SPX grinds down or chops