可以。历史上大宗商品市场暴涨暴跌已经发生过好多次,早就写在了rule里。市场一旦存在违约风险,cme可以无限提高保证金。

来源: 2025-12-30 21:33:35 [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

白银现在的价格已经涌入太多投机资金,违约风险很大。不光空头会爆仓,多头大多也是短期投机商,都在想着四两拨千斤从对方荷包里无中生有。不控制的结果是一方被逼迫违约(=股市挤空),另一方大赚(投机客),最后没有基本面支撑潮水退去依然是一地鸡毛(参考gme/amc逼空)。这是极不健康的市场,做市商(CME)最怕。

The CME Group increases futures margin requirements primarily in response to market volatility, big price swings (like recent surges in silver/gold), and to ensure traders have enough collateral to cover potential losses, protecting market integrity and preventing defaults, following internal reviews or in conjunction with regulatory guidance, a rule-based action to maintain stability when risk rises. These hikes demand more cash from traders, potentially cooling speculative rallies, as seen with recent gold/silver price drops after significant margin increases. 
Why Margin Requirements Increase (The "Rule")
  1. Volatility Spikes: When an asset's price moves dramatically (e.g., silver's jump from $30 to $80/ounce), the risk of default increases, prompting the CME to raise margins.
  2. Risk Management: Higher margins act as collateral, ensuring traders can cover losses, reducing systemic risk, and maintaining smooth market operations.
  3. Regulatory Oversight: Exchanges like CME adjust margins as a tool to moderate excessive speculation and control risk, often in line with broader market conditions.
  4. Normal Review: Increases happen as part of routine reviews of market volatility, not just during crises, though they often coincide with major market moves. 
How It Works
  • Initial Margin: The upfront cash required to open a position, set by the exchange.
  • Maintenance Margin: The minimum balance you must keep in your account; falling below it triggers a "margin call" for more funds.
  • Impact: Increased margins reduce leverage, making it harder for traders to hold large, leveraged positions, which can lead to price corrections, as seen with recent gold and silver futures. 
Recent Example (Late 2025)
  • The CME significantly raised silver futures margins (e.g., from $20k to $25k per contract) during a period of high price volatility, forcing leveraged traders to deposit more funds and contributing to price drops.