Why Nov. 1 is a make-or-break day for millions of Americans'

Dow Jones NewsOct 27, 3:37 PM UTC

MW Why Nov. 1 is a make-or-break day for millions of Americans' finances

 

By Genna Contino

 

'On Nov. 1, there are going to be a lot of people weighing paying for their prescriptions or doctor's visits versus rent versus groceries,' one policy expert said

 

Millions of Americans could be looking at higher health-insurance premiums and less food aid starting on Nov. 1.

 

If the government shutdown stretches beyond October, experts warn that Nov. 1 could mark a grim cutoff for low- and middle-income families.

 

Open enrollment begins Nov. 1, and millions of Americans will be staring down higher health-insurance premiums if Congress does not agree to extend expiring enhancements to premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. At the same time, states are warning that funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP benefits, will run out in November, threatening food aid for millions of households.

 

"Food assistance and enhanced marketplace tax credits for people who buy their own health insurance have helped millions of people keep the cupboards full and families healthy enough to hold down jobs and go to school," said Mona Shah, senior director of policy and strategy at the health-advocacy nonprofit Community Catalyst. "On Nov. 1, there are going to be a lot of people weighing paying for their prescriptions or doctor's visits versus rent versus groceries."

 

The higher premiums for ACA plans will become more apparent starting Nov. 1 as open enrollment for 2026 starts, though the increased costs aren't expected to kick in until after Dec. 31.

 

Premiums for the most popular plans sold on the federal health-insurance marketplace Healthcare.gov will jump by an average of 30%, the Washington Post reported, citing final rates approved by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services that it reviewed. While the total cost of popular benchmark plans is rising significantly, the expiration of enhanced subsidies means the amount many enrollees actually pay out of pocket is projected to more than double.

 

Read more: This government shutdown could be the longest ever - maybe running until Thanksgiving. What might the economic damage be?

 

Premiums for the vast majority of the 24 million marketplace enrollees whose plans are currently subsidized are expected to rise from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026, a 114% increase, according to estimates from nonprofit health-policy research, polling and news organization KFF.

 

"Families may also take on the increased cost of the premium at the expense of other basic necessities, or forgo healthcare altogether," said Hilary Wething, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank. "Less healthcare access means people are more likely to put off care when they're sick, which can increase the spread of disease right around the holiday season and lead to bigger health problems for workers and families down the road."

 

People on employer-sponsored coverage won't be directly impacted by premium tax credits expiring, according to Emma Wager, a senior policy analyst for KFF's ACA program. However, if people who can no longer afford marketplace premiums become uninsured, they'll still need medical care. If they're unable to pay their doctors, "those providers may raise prices across the board to make up for an increase in uncompensated care provided," she said.

 

Read more: As government shuts down, here's how much your health insurance could go up next year

 

"We also may see some healthcare facilities - especially rural hospitals operating on very thin margins, who cannot make up financially for an increase in uninsured patients - be forced to close," Wager continued.

 

While most SNAP beneficiaries rely on Medicaid and Medicare and won't be directly impacted by rising premiums, they're still expected to feel significant financial strain come November.

 

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told reporters on Oct. 16 that the SNAP program would "run out of money in two weeks," implying that 42 million SNAP beneficiaries could soon go hungry if the government shutdown does not end. SNAP recipients include 16 million children, 8 million seniors, 4 million people with disabilities and 1.2 million veterans.

 

Read more: The government shutdown is reaching a tipping point that could send the economy into a downward spiral

 

As the political standoff drags on, accusations have flown over who is responsible for the potential cutoff threatening millions of SNAP recipients.

 

"We are approaching an inflection point for Senate Democrats," a U.S. Agriculture Department spokesperson said in an emailed statement. "Continue to hold out for the far-left wing of the party or reopen the government so mothers, babies and the most vulnerable among us can receive timely WIC and SNAP allotments."

 

WIC - which stands for women, infants and children - is a USDA program that provides food aid for low-income pregnant, postpartum and breastfeeding women, as well as infants and children under age 5.

 

The agency did not respond to emailed questions from MarketWatch about November funding, nor questions about the SNAP contingency fund - an estimated $5 billion to $6 billion fund which advocates say the federal government is legally obligated to release.

 

"This is precisely why Congress created a contingency fund and why using it for this purpose was in USDA's shutdown plan," said Peggy Bailey, executive vice president for policy and program development at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

 

Read more: Are you a federal worker not getting paid during the government shutdown? 4 ways to protect your finances.

 

House Democrats addressed a letter to Rollins on Friday urging the USDA to use these contingency funds to fund the program.

 

Alberto A. González, deputy senior director of state government relations for Families USA, a consumer-healthcare advocacy organization, said that both SNAP and the ACA premium tax credits are essential programs to support positive health outcomes, reduce poverty and build local economies.

 

"Federal policymakers [and] officials promised lower healthcare costs and cheaper groceries for everyone, but instead they are choosing to go the opposite direction," González said. "Because of what's happening now, we could see families going to the [emergency room], for example, for basic care needs if they lose their health coverage, and then visit their local food bank to put food on the table if their SNAP benefits expire."

 

Read more: More airport delays and missed pay: 4 things that could make Washington end the shutdown

 

Friday marked day 24 of the government shutdown and was also the first payday with zero pay for some federal workers, who aren't expected to get another paycheck until the shutdown ends. The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates at least 670,000 federal employees are furloughed, while 730,000 are working without pay.

 

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-Genna Contino

 

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10-27-25 1137ET

 

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