the most important question investors need to anwers
The market is expensive. Yes.
But, is the market going to crash 50% like some thought?
To answer this question, one need to answer another question.
Where we are in economic cycle.
If you think were are in the late cycle, maybe a crash is likely?
However, I would argue that we are in the mid cycle. With moderate inflation, and pro-growth economic policy, we may see a soft landing.
In this senaro, or if Trump can engineer a soft landing, it is hard to see the market crash ( dooms day type of crash).
Of course, because the market is expensive, it could be volitale.
10% type of correction is not unconceivible.
How I am investing now? I reducted my risk (removed beta leverage) and still have long exposure to US market. Will keep investing like we are in mid cycle, but keep eye on risk.