RECESSION RISK SURGES AS GDP CONTRACTS

Kalshi now shows a 74% chance of a U.S. recession this year, spiking after this morning’s surprise GDP print:

Q1 GDP: -0.3% vs. +0.3% expected

Core PCE: +3.5%

Employment Costs: +0.9% (in line)

Consumer Spending: +1.8% annualized