long duration debts yield Jan.vs now. the big difference

In January , US 20 years yield is about 5%, now it is approaching 5% again.

And US stocks made new highs in Jan. 

Why the high yield now is bad.

a. Jan.

Trump walked into his office, investors thought his policy will be pro-business and pro-growth,thereore expected above trend EPS growth and GDP growth. As the result, yield curve steeped, long duratin debts yields went up and should go up. that is driven by optimistism.

b. Now

Because of the trade war,

1. the EPS growth is much lower now, from 11% in Jan. to 6-7% now.

2. Economy growth is decelerating, and some thought it is already in recession. and equity is down. 

3. In this case, investors should hide in US debts. Yet investors abandon it. It is no longer treat as save heaven. 

yield should come down. Yet it went up. 

4. This is driven by pessimism.  investor thought us debts is not safe.