我尊重他人的命运,但还是要讲讲死皮为什么还没有见顶

来源: 2025-02-07 21:09:39 [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

I am a bear of considerable size in heart but I'm still heavily long in US stocks, today at 6025 spy PE 30 is 26%, SMH is 66% higher than 3-yr average. I am one of the FEW people in this board that don't believe in wide generilzation of AI and think AI is a hype to some degree, the hype in AI is yet to be reflected in stock prices. However you need to be a smart bear to wait for that infliction moment. 

One reason is enough to convince you SPX 6128 is not THE top, on that day only XLK/XLF set new AH and most of the rest 10 SPDR sectors are far away from AH - this never happens in the past 20+ years in my memory, most sectors resonate to new high on a typical THE top.

Both $TNX and $USD look topped out already.

I am not worried about the flip-flop of trade wars, the final effect of trade wars will do US more good than bad.