有可能,但我觉得趋势不妙, here is why

来源: 2024-09-19 06:53:09 [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

In thr past, the fund neutral rate is around 2% (netural rate means Fund rate equals to inflation rate). If you read my post yesterday about TLT, then you can do a calculation and roughly we would say 20Y bond could eventually drop to 3-3.5%.

However, Fed yesterday surpised the bond market with a projection that their neutral rate would essentially settle at around 2.9% by 2026. This is a big long term bearish sign for long bond. It essentially says long bond, over the time, will settle at around 4-4.5%, and yesterday long bond was already at 4.02%

As you can see, the risk/award is just not there for long bond.

I do not know where long bond will be today or next month, and I do think it might recover a bit. But the trend has changed for long bond.