Guys here is my analysis of EB2 situation.
Summary:
EB2 backlog will almost be cleared and the date will become current before Oct 2010. All EB2 Backlog should vanish (except for new filings as a result of becoming current). There is some chance that EB3 may receive a bit of spillover but if not the worst case for them is that at least EB2 old backlog is out of their way in year 2011.
Assumptions:
1. USCIS Published data of current 485 backlog (dated 11th Jan 2010) is correct and includes all Emp based cases including dependents.
2. USCIS guideline that 15% cases may be outside this backlog is correct.
3. USCIS doesn't waste any visas during 2010.
4. There is a family spillover of 10000 visas from year 2009 into year 2010.
5. USCIS doesn't have any strategic preference between new EB2 applicants vs EB3 backloged applicants.
Details:
Presentation1.jpg
Quota 485 Pending 10 Exhausted 10 Incr Demand 10 Total Visa Demand Extra Visas
INDIA 9801 101731 1,106 4,083 106,920 1000
EB1 2803 639 3,887 4,526
EB2 2803 40022 553 - 40,575
EB3 2803 60874 553 - 61,427
EB4 696 161 161 322 374
EB5 696 35 35 70 626
CHINA 9801 24460 1,106 4,333 29,898 1,268
EB1 2803 702 4,271 4,973 -
EB2 2803 17753 553 - 18,306 -
EB3 2803 5943 553 - 6,496 -
EB4 696 43 43 86 610
EB5 696 19 19 38 658
TOTAL 140000 209441 9,004 26,124 244,569 61,475
EB1 40040 2968 18,055 21,023 22,909
EB2 40040 63725 1,106 6,340 71,171 22,144
EB3 40040 141019 7,898 - 148,917 -
EB4 9940 1246 1,246 2,492 7,448
EB5 9940 483 483 966 8,974
ROW 120398 83,250 6,792 17,709 107,751 59,207
EB1 34434 1,627 9,898 11,525 22,909
EB2 34434 5,950 6,340 12,290 22,144
EB3 34434 74,202 6,792 - 80,994 -
EB4 8548 1,042 1,042 2,084 6,464
EB5 8548 429 429 858 7,690
The explanation of columns:
1. Quota - Is the alloted quota of 140000 designated empl. visas for each category and country.
2. 485 Pending - Is based on what USCIS published recently.
3. '10 Exhausted - Is prorated amount of visas exhausted in categories that are not current.
4. '10 Incr Demand - Is the additional 485 applications. This demand is explained below.
4. '10 Total Demand - This tells us the total demand or inventory of emp based 485.
5. Extra visas - This is of course the most interesting column that shows how many extra visas are available because of spillover.
Total Visa Availability For EB2
Base Visas 40,040
Spillover 61,475
Double count w ROW -22,144
Family Spillover 10,000
NVC Preadjudicated - 6,000
CP Consumption - 9,010
---------------------------------------
74,361
As you can see EB2 India China receives almost 23K EB1 spillover + 22K from EB2 ROW + 17K from EB4 EB5. Since EB1 is current, all these will flow down to EB2 India and China. The total is about 62K. Take out the 22K ROW EB2 doublecount. That leaves 40K extra visas for EB2 Ind/CHN. Add 10K from family. So about 50K extra visas. Add the usual 40K for EB2 and you get total 90K for EB2 (all countries) available in 2010. Now consider that the total emp-485 demand may be understated by 15% because of various reasons (consulor processing and whatever else). The only one that matters is EB1/2/4/5. And not all of CP will be processed immediately. Assuming that only 50% gets processed that is about 9K. Also need to take out 6000 EB2 at NVC that are waiting for visa number. So finally 75K is the total inventory available for EB2 Ind/Chn (since we already factored in ROW above). This is more than enough to clear all EB2 backlog and we may see some spillover into EB3 this year.
Explanation of EB1 WW and EB2 ROW 2010 Demand
To deduce this, one has to look at how these inventories have behaved between Aug and Dec of 2009. EB1 ROW is getting cleared fast (60 days turnaround) so extrapolating to one year that is approx 10K. EB2 ROW is depleted approx 40% between Aug and Dec. So the remaining is 60% of what was filed. Extrapolating one gets new demand at approx 6K.
Everything else I have extrapolated in a liberal manner.
Referring these visa availabilities to the recent 485 inventory report, all EB2 backlog should easily clear and approx 10K spillover should go into EB3.
Placeholder - TBD EB3 predictions.
In general EB3 picture seems dire. This is because in addition to the inventory above, NVC has about 110K EB3 applications waiting for a visa number. Most likely these are ROW EB3 apps. So howsoever spillover we see, EB3 Ind Chn may not move a lot. I am sorry to say this ..... but that seems more likely.
As far as EB2 goes the picture is very positive thanks to the changed spillover since last couple of years. They can clear backlog in a couple of years (worst case) even without CIR.
If there is legislative relief then hopefully EB3 IndCHN will be biggest beneficiaries. Good luck guys. Hope it helps.
Summary:
EB2 backlog will almost be cleared and the date will become current before Oct 2010. All EB2 Backlog should vanish (except for new filings as a result of becoming current). There is some chance that EB3 may receive a bit of spillover but if not the worst case for them is that at least EB2 old backlog is out of their way in year 2011.
Assumptions:
1. USCIS Published data of current 485 backlog (dated 11th Jan 2010) is correct and includes all Emp based cases including dependents.
2. USCIS guideline that 15% cases may be outside this backlog is correct.
3. USCIS doesn't waste any visas during 2010.
4. There is a family spillover of 10000 visas from year 2009 into year 2010.
5. USCIS doesn't have any strategic preference between new EB2 applicants vs EB3 backloged applicants.
Details:
Presentation1.jpg
Quota 485 Pending 10 Exhausted 10 Incr Demand 10 Total Visa Demand Extra Visas
INDIA 9801 101731 1,106 4,083 106,920 1000
EB1 2803 639 3,887 4,526
EB2 2803 40022 553 - 40,575
EB3 2803 60874 553 - 61,427
EB4 696 161 161 322 374
EB5 696 35 35 70 626
CHINA 9801 24460 1,106 4,333 29,898 1,268
EB1 2803 702 4,271 4,973 -
EB2 2803 17753 553 - 18,306 -
EB3 2803 5943 553 - 6,496 -
EB4 696 43 43 86 610
EB5 696 19 19 38 658
TOTAL 140000 209441 9,004 26,124 244,569 61,475
EB1 40040 2968 18,055 21,023 22,909
EB2 40040 63725 1,106 6,340 71,171 22,144
EB3 40040 141019 7,898 - 148,917 -
EB4 9940 1246 1,246 2,492 7,448
EB5 9940 483 483 966 8,974
ROW 120398 83,250 6,792 17,709 107,751 59,207
EB1 34434 1,627 9,898 11,525 22,909
EB2 34434 5,950 6,340 12,290 22,144
EB3 34434 74,202 6,792 - 80,994 -
EB4 8548 1,042 1,042 2,084 6,464
EB5 8548 429 429 858 7,690
The explanation of columns:
1. Quota - Is the alloted quota of 140000 designated empl. visas for each category and country.
2. 485 Pending - Is based on what USCIS published recently.
3. '10 Exhausted - Is prorated amount of visas exhausted in categories that are not current.
4. '10 Incr Demand - Is the additional 485 applications. This demand is explained below.
4. '10 Total Demand - This tells us the total demand or inventory of emp based 485.
5. Extra visas - This is of course the most interesting column that shows how many extra visas are available because of spillover.
Total Visa Availability For EB2
Base Visas 40,040
Spillover 61,475
Double count w ROW -22,144
Family Spillover 10,000
NVC Preadjudicated - 6,000
CP Consumption - 9,010
---------------------------------------
74,361
As you can see EB2 India China receives almost 23K EB1 spillover + 22K from EB2 ROW + 17K from EB4 EB5. Since EB1 is current, all these will flow down to EB2 India and China. The total is about 62K. Take out the 22K ROW EB2 doublecount. That leaves 40K extra visas for EB2 Ind/CHN. Add 10K from family. So about 50K extra visas. Add the usual 40K for EB2 and you get total 90K for EB2 (all countries) available in 2010. Now consider that the total emp-485 demand may be understated by 15% because of various reasons (consulor processing and whatever else). The only one that matters is EB1/2/4/5. And not all of CP will be processed immediately. Assuming that only 50% gets processed that is about 9K. Also need to take out 6000 EB2 at NVC that are waiting for visa number. So finally 75K is the total inventory available for EB2 Ind/Chn (since we already factored in ROW above). This is more than enough to clear all EB2 backlog and we may see some spillover into EB3 this year.
Explanation of EB1 WW and EB2 ROW 2010 Demand
To deduce this, one has to look at how these inventories have behaved between Aug and Dec of 2009. EB1 ROW is getting cleared fast (60 days turnaround) so extrapolating to one year that is approx 10K. EB2 ROW is depleted approx 40% between Aug and Dec. So the remaining is 60% of what was filed. Extrapolating one gets new demand at approx 6K.
Everything else I have extrapolated in a liberal manner.
Referring these visa availabilities to the recent 485 inventory report, all EB2 backlog should easily clear and approx 10K spillover should go into EB3.
Placeholder - TBD EB3 predictions.
In general EB3 picture seems dire. This is because in addition to the inventory above, NVC has about 110K EB3 applications waiting for a visa number. Most likely these are ROW EB3 apps. So howsoever spillover we see, EB3 Ind Chn may not move a lot. I am sorry to say this ..... but that seems more likely.
As far as EB2 goes the picture is very positive thanks to the changed spillover since last couple of years. They can clear backlog in a couple of years (worst case) even without CIR.
If there is legislative relief then hopefully EB3 IndCHN will be biggest beneficiaries. Good luck guys. Hope it helps.
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