Trump 如何得到270？

几种路径，个人假想，仅供参考

1. 2012 年Romney得了206，Trump必须保住Romney的州外：

a. 赢Florida，得 29＋ 赢Ohio，得18＋ 赢Pennsylvania, 得20===273 （中概率）

b. 赢Florida，得 29＋ 赢Ohio，得18+ 赢Iowa， 得6+ 赢Nevada，得6+ 赢Colorado，得9＝＝＝274 （大概率）

c. 赢Florida，得 29＋ 赢Ohio，得18+ 赢Wisconsin，得10+ 赢Michigan，得16＝＝＝279 （小概率）

2. 如果，Trump输掉部份Romney 的州：

a. 赢Florida，得 29＋ 赢Ohio，得18＋ 赢Pennsylvania, 得20+ 赢Iowa， 得6+ 赢Nevada，得6 -  输North Carolina, 失15=270

b. 如再输Utah，失6的话，Trump的希望渺茫

可见Trump得必赢Florida和Ohio，还得保住Romney的州。

 

 

所有跟帖： 

• A tall task, indeed. -鬓微霜又何妨- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 13:20:52

• Good try. See my calculation in detail. -Norcalfan0- ♂ (359 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 13:41:52

• 但据RCP Average, 希拉里现在还在佛州领先2.9%。我看可能危险。 -michigan007- ♂ (286 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 14:02:46

• Yes, this is mission impossible 2016. -Norcalfan0- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 14:11:53

• new poll shows H leading PA by 9-10 -钢丝.- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 14:42:39

• any chance he might win NH? -zenmaster- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 13:56:26

• Trump may win 1 out of 4 from NH. -Norcalfan0- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 14:13:16

• that's Maine , no way he can take NH -钢丝.- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 14:27:09

• You are right. My mistake. -Norcalfan0- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 14:33:40

• that's exact the reason why so many Trump fans stayed up... -钢丝.- ♂ (50 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 14:28:38

• Maine不是winner takes all. Trump 有一票，再加FL, CO. 最后269对269. 由众院决定，T -ar11- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 19:55:22

• 为什么民主党是中产阶级的噩梦，请阅读此文。已点击1.49万，点赞75 -工薪阶层- ♂ (1102 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 16:59:14

• 梦游 -John_sh- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/04/2016 postreply 17:05:48

• 连总是唱衰希拉里的拉丝姆森现在都预测希拉里领先了。 -偶灯斯陋- ♀ (50 bytes) () 10/05/2016 postreply 00:13:06

• Rasmussen Reports Trump +1 Oct5th -travelprofuns- ♂ (64 bytes) () 10/05/2016 postreply 19:15:30

• NM的Trump支持者都投Johnson.这样Trump赢下FL，OH，IA，NV后，哪怕PA,CO,WI,MI一个都不赢，两个 -CavalierH- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/05/2016 postreply 09:50:21