该死的停火
原文链接：https://medium.com/@giorgioprovinciali/damned-truce-da29ab0f47d1?sk=6a5ada41b2c360e108ed9509467430c7
Damned Truce
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine
Ternopil’ – Damned Truce. Paradoxical as it may seem, this anathema is the logical consequence of everything we’ve reported from the battlefield whenever Moscow violated its ceasefire promises: postremo, during the three days Washington claimed to give Moscow a chance to stage its parade of shame. As you’ll read later, this isn’t the only reason for Ukrainian blame.
After exploiting that umpteenth farce to move armored divisions and carry out otherwise impossible rotations of personnel and equipment, in addition to committing horrendous crimes against Ukrainian civilians in Donbas, Kherson, and Sumy that we described during those days, the Kremlin used the «ceasefire» proclaimed by Donald Trump as a personal success to stockpile enough vectors of death to launch the most terrifying combined attack on Ukraine since the start of the war.
In the first phase, it employed many drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. It then used the full spectrum of available means to carpet-bomb energy plants, critical infrastructure in major cities, defense industries, and government buildings across the country in a relentless, large-scale assault aimed at preventing Ukrainian defenders from resting and regrouping.
The result was devastating: at least 1,560 vectors of death in less than 48 hours.
After the «truce» ended, Russian aircraft attacked the Dnipropetrovsk region, killing eight people and injuring at least 11 in Synelnykove, Kryvyi Rih, and Nikopol. This compelled the authorities in those districts to order the evacuation of critical areas, such as the most affected parts of Marhanets, where some of the most horrifying reports have been recorded since the war began. At the same time, it targeted the oblasts of Kharkiv, Odesa, and Poltava, leaving over 7,000 households without power.
Between May 12 and 13, once again utilizing Belarusian and Moldovan airspace, the Russian Air Force launched 753 high-explosive drones – essentially cruise missiles – against western Ukraine. Although Ukrainian defenses managed to neutralize a staggering 710 of them, three people died in Rivne, thousands of homes were left without power in Lutsk, an apartment building collapsed in Odesa, and a previously undetermined number of civilian buildings were destroyed in Kherson, Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, and Zhytomyr. Air raid alerts have been sounding all day here in Ternopil’ and in the regions of Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Volyn, and Rivne, and explosions have shaken areas so close to the European Union border that the new government in Budapest, for the first time, summonedthe Russian ambassador, condemning the most massive attack against Transcarpathia since the start of the war.
Between May 13 and 14, Moscow continued its combined strike, launching 731 missiles (675 drones and 56 other types of missiles) against Ukraine and other regions, focusing a terrifying volume of fire on Kyiv.
This retaliatory attack was something Vladimir Putin threatened if Ukraine disrupted the May 9th rashist parade.
Images of Kyiv’s Darnytsia district – ravaged by Russian bombs that caused around forty civilian casualties, including deaths and injuries – are circulating around the world. This happened despite Ukrainian air defenses intercepting and neutralizing 693 targets, including 652 drones and 41 missiles. Considering that in the previous 24 hours, Moscow had tried to exhaust Ukraine’s defenses, it was a record.
Connected to another, much sadder, one.
Largely echoing the bitter observations already made in these pages and updating the already tragic data from CREA, IEEFA, and Bruegel that we cited in recent weeks, Welt analysts explained, just as the Russian bombing was at its peak, that in the first quarter of 2026, European Union countries imported 6.9 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG. This is the highest quarterly level since the start of the large-scale invasion: 16% more than in the same period last year. CREA added an even more alarming figure: in April 2026, Russian revenues from fossil fuel exports rose to about €733 million per day, the highest in two and a half years.
After twelve years of trying to change strategy – i.e., of war in Ukraine – it’s alarming to see that France is Europe’s largest importer, with 35% of its LNG coming from Russia, that Spain increased its Russian LNG purchases by 43% annually, and that Belgium is the only European country where Russia is the leading LNG supplier.
The most concerning point is that Moscow continues its strikes and has increased their frequency.
The three Kh-47M2 “Kinzhals,” eighteen Iskander-Ms, and thirty-five Kh-101s launched in the latest wave are not relics of a depleted Soviet arsenal, but rather recently produced vectors from an industrial system still fueled by components, logistics, fuel, tax revenues, and financial flows.
Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses may break all records, but focusing only on trajectories, radar, and interceptors is an almost offensive oversimplification.
Energy revenues reduce pressure on the Russian budget, and each steady influx of currency strengthens the war machine that produces, transports, and launches those carriers.
The contradiction is clear.
The European Union has officially adopted a plan to phase out Russian gas: the Commission states that dependence on Moscow’s gas has decreased from 45% of total imports to 12% in 2025, and that the REPowerEU regulation of January 2026 aims to eliminate the last 35 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually from the European market. But exactly during this transition period, as the war worsens, Russian LNG continues to reach European terminals under contractual agreements and within a political gray area that doesn’t always break the law but often undermines its spirit.
This is why the word “truce” now sounds like an insult.
Russia uses diplomatic pauses to relocate personnel, resupply forces, and stockpile drones and missiles. Meanwhile, part of Europe is using energy transitions to restock, continuing to buy resources that support Russian terrorism. The first hypocrisy leads to immediate massacre; the second makes the next one possible.
In 1.542 days of war, we recorded over 250 videos from ground zero and wrote more than 1,500 articles.
We are doing our best to provide genuine, first-hand reports from zones where almost no press dares to go. This means living in a kill zone constantly. We take the risk, but without your invaluable support, our voices would remain unheard and silent. Without brave people sharing our articles from afar, they would remain unread. Our reports would go unseen, and our efforts would be lost. There’s still a lot of work to do here, as the people around us are also in no better situation.
We’re renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping to restore what Russia is destroying. Moving forward with only a small reimbursement for each article from a brave newspaper that believes in us is extremely challenging. That’s why we are grateful to all the kind people who support us and trust in our mission.
Even a small donation helps.
We’ll keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, dear friends
该死的停火
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
乌克兰前线报道
特尔诺皮尔——该死的停火。尽管这听起来矛盾，但这一诅咒正是我们从战场上所报道的现实的逻辑结果：每当莫斯科违背其停火承诺时，这种情况就不可避免。在这三天时间里，华盛顿声称是给莫斯科一个机会以进行其“耻辱阅兵”。正如你稍后将读到的，这并非让乌克兰指责俄的唯一原因。
（图：Alla与我在乌克兰特尔诺皮尔一处被毁的民用基础设施的废墟中报道——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
在利用了那场又一次的闹剧、借机调动装甲部队、完成原本不可能的人员与装备轮换，并在顿巴斯、赫尔松和苏梅对乌克兰平民犯下我们在那些日子里所描述的骇人罪行外，克里姆林宫还把唐纳德·川普作为个人功绩所宣称的“停火”，大量囤积足够的死亡载体，从而发动自战争开始以来对乌克兰最可怕的联合打击。
（视频：Alla和我在乌克兰米尔内录下了这些影像 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
在第一阶段，它动用了大量无人机压制乌克兰防空体系。随后动用所有可用手段，对全国范围内的能源厂、主要城市的关键基础设施、防御工业和政府大楼实施地毯式轰炸，展开一场持续大规模攻击，旨在阻止乌克兰守军休整与重组。
结果是毁灭性的：不到48小时内至少发射了1560个死亡载体。
“停火”结束后，俄机袭击了第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克州，在锡涅尔尼科沃、克里维里赫和尼科波尔造成8人死亡、至少11人受伤，迫使当地政府下令疏散关键区域，如受创最严重的马尔哈内茨部分地区，自战争开始以来那里记录到了一些最骇人的情况。同时，打击波及哈尔科夫、敖德萨和波尔塔瓦等州，导致超过7000户家庭断电。
（音频：我在此自豪地与大家分享我在美国资深分析家Mark McNamee主持的“正在书写的历史：乌克兰战争”最新一集中发言的片段）
5月12日至13日，俄空军再次利用白俄罗斯和摩尔多瓦领空，对乌克兰西部发射了753枚高爆无人机——本质上是巡航导弹。尽管乌方防御系统拦截摧毁了惊人的710枚，但在日夫讷有3人死亡，卢茨克数千户断电，敖德萨一栋公寓楼倒塌，赫尔松、基辅、赫梅利尼茨基、切尔卡瑟和日托米尔也有若干民用建筑被毁，具体数目尚未统计完成。这里特尔诺皮尔及切尔尼夫齐、伊万諾-弗朗科夫斯克、利沃夫、沃伦和日夫讷等地区全天响起空袭警报，爆炸震动发生在距离欧盟边界极近的地区，以致布达佩斯新政府首次召见俄罗斯大使，谴责这是自战争开始以来对外喀尔巴阡地区的最猛烈的攻击。
（图：乌克兰防空发布的2026年5月13日俄袭击统计数据 ——照片来源与鸣谢：乌克兰武装部队）
5月13日至14日间，莫斯科继续其联合打击行动，向乌克兰等地发射731枚导弹（675枚无人机与56枚其他类型导弹），将火力集中于基辅，规模极其恐怖。
这次报复性攻击正是弗拉基米尔·普京担心的，即如果乌克兰破坏了5月9日的“拉什主义”阅兵。
基辅达尔尼茨亚区遭俄军轰炸，造成约四十名平民伤亡（包括死伤），袭击后的画面在全球范围内传播。乌克兰防空系统成功拦截并摧毁了693个目标，其中652架无人机、41枚导弹，而考虑到此前24小时内莫斯科已试图耗尽乌克兰防御，这一数字仍创下一个纪录。
但也是一个更为悲伤的纪录。
（图：乌克兰防空发布的2026年5月14日俄袭击统计数据 ——照片来源与鸣谢：乌克兰武装部队）0.
呼应我们本栏之前的苦涩观察并更新最近几周引用的CREA、IEEFA和Bruegel的悲惨数据，德国《世界报》（Welt）分析指出，在俄军轰炸达到高峰之际，即2026年第一季度，欧盟国家从俄罗斯进口了69亿立方米液化天然气。这是自饿大规模入侵乌克兰以来的最高季度水平：比去年同期增长16%。CREA还给出更令人震惊的数字：2026年4月，俄罗斯来自化石燃料出口的收入约为每天7.33亿欧元，为两年半以来最高。
在经历了12年的战略调整之后，即在乌克兰发动战争的十二年，令人震惊的是，法国仍是欧洲最大的俄罗斯LNG进口国，35%来自俄罗斯；西班牙年增43%的俄罗斯LNG采购；比利时则是唯一一个俄罗斯为其主要LNG供应国的欧洲国家。
最令人担忧的是，莫斯科持续其攻击并已提高攻击频率。
最新一波发射的3枚Kh-47M2“匕首”、18枚伊斯坎德尔-M导弹与35枚Kh-101巡航导弹，并非来自耗尽的苏联旧库存，而是来自仍在运转的、由持续零部件供应、后勤、燃料、税收和金融流支撑的工业体系的近期产出。
（图：乌克兰克拉马托尔斯克市中心 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
乌克兰的防空体系或许在不断刷新纪录，但仅把注意力放在弹道、雷达与拦截器上，那几乎是一种冒犯性的过分简化。
能源收益减轻了俄罗斯预算压力，每一笔稳定的资金流入都在强化那个生产、运输并发射这些武器载体的战争机器。
矛盾显而易见。
欧盟已正式通过一项逐步淘汰俄罗斯天然气的计划：委员会称对莫斯科天然气的依赖已从45%的进口比例降至2025年的12%，并且2026年1月的REPowerEU法规旨在从欧洲市场完全消除最后的每年350亿立方米的俄罗斯天然气。但恰恰在这一过渡期，当战争恶化时，俄罗斯的LNG仍通过合同安排和政治灰色地带持续进入欧洲终端。这些做法并非总是触犯法律，但常常破坏法律的精神。
（图：我在乌克兰赫尔松的战区，这里是我们的“家” ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
这就是为什么“停火”一词如今听起来像侮辱。
俄罗斯利用外交间歇重新部署兵力、补给部队并囤积无人机与导弹。与此同时，欧洲一部分则利用能源过渡之名进行补货，继续购买支撑俄罗斯恐怖主义的资源。第一种虚伪立刻导致屠杀；第二种则使下一次屠杀成为可能。
（图：Alla与我在乌克兰赫尔松一座被俄罗斯联邦摧毁的加油站报道 ——版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
在1542天的战争中，我们从前线录制了250多段视频，并撰写了1500多篇文章。
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